After months of losses, altcoins have begun showing signs of recovery, with Avalanche [AVAX] among them
On the 20th of February 2026, AVAX saw renewed activity as volume climbed 25 percent to $248.87 million. It traded around $9.25, pushing into the descending trendline formed after the October 10 crash. That violent selloff marked the start of a prolonged grind lower.
Since that crash, the descending resistance repeatedly rejected every recovery attempt. Meanwhile, $7.29 acted as key structural support and remained the level bulls could not afford to lose.
With price pressing resistance again, the real question was whether momentum finally had the strength to break it.
MACD forms a bullish crossover
On the daily chart, AVAX formed a bullish MACD crossover as it approached the downtrend channel from October’s crash. The histogram turned slightly positive, signaling short‐term momentum shifting away from bearish control.
At press time, RSI climbed toward 42, recovering from recent lows but still below 50. Therefore, momentum improved, yet it had not fully transitioned into bullish territory. AVAX remained directly under resistance, which limited the impact of the crossover.
Leverage market analysis
Spot Taker Buy Dominance stayed elevated on Cumulative Volume Delta, according to CryptoQuant, reflecting aggressive market buying.
Moreover, Futures Taker Buy Dominance also remained elevated, showing participation across leveraged markets.
This combination suggested active demand rather than passive bidding. However, despite strong taker activity, the price failed to decisively reclaim the descending resistance.
As a result, buyer aggression had not yet translated into structural change. However, the data implied accumulation was developing beneath price action. Only a structural breakout could validate that buildup.
Will AVAX break its the multi-year downtrend?
On the weekly chart, the multi-year downtrend continued to act as macro resistance. Every major rally since 2021 had stalled beneath this ceiling. This meant AVAX had remained in a bear market since 2021.
Weekly RSI remained near 31.78 and below its moving average, signaling weak momentum. Weekly MACD stayed below zero with a slightly negative histogram. Therefore, the broader structure remained bearish despite short-term improvement on lower timeframes.
Looking ahead, a weekly close above the multi-year downtrend would be required to confirm a shift. Until that happened, Avalanche remained within a larger bearish framework.
Final Summary
- Elevated taker dominance and rising volume showed participation, not confirmation.
- A weekly reclaim of macro resistance remained the defining requirement for trend reversal.
