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86% Return? How to Use a Bot to 'Earn Passively' on Polymarket

This article details the development and backtesting of an automated trading bot for the "BTC 15-minute UP/DOWN" market on Polymarket. The author identified market inefficiencies and automated a manual strategy to exploit them. The bot operates in two modes. In manual mode, users can directly place orders. In auto mode, it runs a two-leg cycle: First, it observes the market for a set time after a round begins. If either the "UP" or "DOWN" side drops by a specified percentage (e.g., 15%) within seconds, it triggers "Leg 1" and buys the crashed side. It then waits for "Leg 2," a hedging trade on the opposite side, which is only executed if the sum of the Leg 1 entry price and the opposite ask price meets a target threshold (e.g., ≤ 0.95). Due to a lack of historical market data from Polymarket's API, the author created a custom backtesting system by recording 6 GB of live price snapshots over four days. A conservative backtest with parameters of a 15% crash threshold and a 0.95 sum target showed an 86% ROI, turning $1,000 into $1,869. An aggressive parameter set resulted in a -50% loss, highlighting the critical role of parameter selection. The author acknowledges significant limitations of the backtesting, including its short data period, failure to model order book depth, partial fills, variable network latency, and the market impact of the bot's own orders. Future improvements include rewriting the bot in Rust for performance, running a dedicated node, and deploying on a low-latency VPS.

marsbit12/30 04:07

86% Return? How to Use a Bot to 'Earn Passively' on Polymarket

marsbit12/30 04:07

Why XRP’s rich list matters more than price right now

XRP's price has dropped nearly 50%, but the key story lies in its supply and ownership structure. Over 6 million wallets hold only small amounts (≤500 XRP), while a significant portion of the supply is locked in escrow or held by a few large wallets. This means the truly liquid, tradable supply is shrinking, as evidenced by declining exchange balances despite heavy selling pressure. The cost to accumulate XRP has also risen sharply, pricing out many retail buyers. Consequently, even a modest return of demand could lead to disproportionately sharp price increases due to the constrained available supply.

ambcrypto12/30 04:03

Why XRP’s rich list matters more than price right now

ambcrypto12/30 04:03

Times Square Goes Crypto: XRP “589” Catches Ex-CFTC Chair’s Eye

Times Square's New Year's Eve display for 2026, consisting of the numerals "2026," was constructed using 589 LED bulbs. This specific number sparked significant reactions within the XRP community, as "589" is a recurring motif in its online circles. The coincidence led to widespread sharing of content and speculation on social media platforms. Former CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham, now at MoonPay, added to the buzz by reacting to the footage with rocket emojis. However, no official endorsement or connection between the event organizers and XRP exists. Mainstream news outlets reported on the display's logistics without mentioning crypto, and analysts caution against interpreting the coincidence as meaningful financial guidance. The event is largely seen as an example of how online communities rapidly identify and spread patterns.

bitcoinist12/30 04:01

Times Square Goes Crypto: XRP “589” Catches Ex-CFTC Chair’s Eye

bitcoinist12/30 04:01

Paradigm's Stalling Moment: When a 'Research-Driven Crypto VC' Faces Reality Test

Paradigm, once a leading research-driven crypto VC, is facing significant challenges marked by an unprecedented wave of high-level departures since April, including multiple partners. Its investment strategy, which previously yielded iconic deals like Uniswap and Flashbots, has struggled to adapt to shifting industry trends toward application-layer innovation and financial products. The firm has made several high-valuation, late-stage investments—such as Farcaster, Babylon, and Monad—that have underperformed post-token, while missing early opportunities in high-return areas like derivatives and RWA. Its incubation initiatives, including the EIR program, have also seen setbacks, with projects like Shadow and Yield Protocol halting operations. Recently, Paradigm has increased investment frequency and shifted toward earlier-stage deals. It is now focusing heavily on Tempo, a payment-focused Layer-1 blockchain developed with Stripe, aiming to regain its influence in a more results-driven market. Despite these challenges, Paradigm remains one of the best-capitalized VCs in crypto.

marsbit12/30 03:35

Paradigm's Stalling Moment: When a 'Research-Driven Crypto VC' Faces Reality Test

marsbit12/30 03:35

Alt5 Sigma Faces Delisting Crisis as Auditors Change Three Times in Six Weeks, Financial Reports Delayed

Alt5 Sigma, a cryptocurrency firm linked to the Trump family through its association with World Liberty Financial, is facing severe financial and operational turmoil, including potential delisting from Nasdaq due to delayed quarterly reports. Within six weeks, the company cycled through three different auditing firms, with the most recent one, Victor Mokuolu CPA PLLC, being dismissed after its Texas license was found to have expired in August. This auditor had a history of regulatory penalties and a failed peer review in 2023. The company’s instability is further highlighted by a wave of executive departures, including its CEO and CFO, following a deal announced in August to hold a significant amount of World Liberty’s $WLFI tokens. Alt5 Sigma, which rebranded from JanOne in July 2024, also disclosed that its Canadian subsidiary and a former executive were convicted of financial crimes in Rwanda, though they deny wrongdoing and are appealing. Amid reporting delays and non-compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements, the firm continues to struggle with governance and financial transparency.

marsbit12/30 03:23

Alt5 Sigma Faces Delisting Crisis as Auditors Change Three Times in Six Weeks, Financial Reports Delayed

marsbit12/30 03:23

IOSG｜A Tale of Two Cities: A Cultural Perspective on BNB Chain and Base

IOSG's article "A Tale of Two Chains: BNB Chain and Base from a Cultural Perspective" explores the cultural and strategic differences between BNB Chain and Base, framing them as distinct "cities" within the crypto ecosystem. BNB Chain is portrayed as a bustling, efficiency-driven port city, closely tied to Binance. It serves users primarily from emerging markets (e.g., Southeast Asia, the Middle East) who prioritize low gas fees, fast transactions, and quick access to new financial opportunities. Its culture is pragmatic, focused on scalability, high application density, and leveraging Binance's massive user base for rapid ecosystem growth. In contrast, Base is characterized as a new city built with Ethereum’s values, attracting developers, creators, and institutional users from Western markets. It emphasizes compliance, long-term building, developer-friendly tools, and cultural alignment with Ethereum’s decentralized ethos. Base users care deeply about technical design, community, and sustainable ecosystem development. Both chains represent exchange-led vertical integration strategies: Binance uses BNB Chain to create a seamless, closed-loop user experience from exchange to chain, while Coinbase leverages Base to offer a trusted, compliant environment with strong developer support. The article concludes that these chains are not in direct competition but serve different user needs and cultural contexts. BNB Chain excels at scaling Web3 for mass adoption, while Base focuses on mature, sustainable infrastructure. The future will likely see both models coexist, with users fluidly moving between ecosystems.

深潮12/30 03:16

IOSG｜A Tale of Two Cities: A Cultural Perspective on BNB Chain and Base

深潮12/30 03:16

Why the 2026 macro outlook could spark a 2020-style Bitcoin rally

The market is shifting focus to 2026 after a challenging 2025, marked by a liquidity crunch and Bitcoin's first negative year since 2022. Despite this, historical cycles suggest such conditions often precede major Bitcoin rallies. Key macro factors, including quantitative easing, institutional adoption, and regulatory developments, significantly influenced BTC's price in 2025, driving it to multiple all-time highs near $126k, though external pressures also caused notable pullbacks. Looking ahead, the 2026 macroeconomic setup is drawing comparisons to 2020, when aggressive fiscal stimulus and monetary easing propelled Bitcoin from $10k to $69k. Similar catalysts are aligning for 2026, including potential stimulus checks, the end of quantitative tightening, crypto deregulation under the Clarity Act, and record retail participation. This combination of supportive policies and improved market clarity could fuel a significant Bitcoin rally, reminiscent of its 2020-2021 bull run.

ambcrypto12/30 03:03

Why the 2026 macro outlook could spark a 2020-style Bitcoin rally

ambcrypto12/30 03:03

Bitcoin Sees Post-Capitulation Conditions Align: Selling Pressure Falls 80%

Bitcoin remains below $90,000, with repeated rejections fueling bearish sentiment. However, on-chain analysis by Axel Adler indicates a significant reduction in selling pressure. The realized loss z-score, which peaked between 8.7–10.9 in November with over $5 billion in daily losses, fell sharply by late December to around 1.6. Weekly realized losses dropped from $2.4 billion to approximately $0.5 billion, signaling seller exhaustion. The Net Realized Profit/Loss metric, though still negative, improved markedly in late December, shrinking its negative value by nearly half. This improvement occurred without a strong price rebound, suggesting the change stems from structural selling exhaustion rather than speculative activity. Historically, such conditions precede market stabilization and potential recovery, positioning January as a possible inflection point if new demand emerges.

bitcoinist12/30 03:01

Bitcoin Sees Post-Capitulation Conditions Align: Selling Pressure Falls 80%

bitcoinist12/30 03:01

What Compliance Risks Lie Behind Trip.com's Overseas Version Accepting USDT Payments?

Trip.com's overseas platform has introduced USDT payments, allowing users to book flights and hotels using the stablecoin. While this offers benefits like potential exchange rate discounts and avoidance of cross-border payment fees and limits, it also carries significant compliance risks under Chinese regulations. For personal use, paying with legally sourced USDT for individual travel may still violate foreign exchange rules if done repetitively or in large amounts. There is also the risk of receiving "black USDT" linked to illegal activities like fraud, which could lead to frozen bank accounts and legal investigations. Acting as an agent to book for others for profit is riskier. Such activity may be classified as illegal foreign exchange operations or money laundering, potentially resulting in charges for illegal business operations or concealing criminal proceeds. To stay compliant, users should ensure the payer, account, and traveler names match exactly, retain proof of legitimate fund sources, and avoid any profit-seeking booking services for others. The key is to use USDT for genuine personal consumption only and avoid any grey-area transactions that may attract legal scrutiny.

marsbit12/30 02:38

What Compliance Risks Lie Behind Trip.com's Overseas Version Accepting USDT Payments?