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Q4 Net Loss of $667 Million, Yet Stock Soars 16%, Don't Buy Coinbase Now

Coinbase reported a net loss of $667 million in Q4 2025, with revenue of $1.78 billion falling short of expectations. Despite this, its stock surged 16.46% the next day, reflecting short-term market optimism. However, analysts caution against investing in Coinbase at this time, citing high cyclicality and near-term headwinds. Revenue is split between transaction-based income (56%) and subscription/services (44%). Transaction revenue relies heavily on retail trading spreads, which are under pressure due to declining crypto prices and reduced volatility. Subscription revenue, led by USDC interest income and staking, offers diversification but remains sensitive to interest rates and market conditions. Key debates include whether Coinbase can reduce its dependence on crypto market cycles, the sustainability of stablecoin profits, and the impact of future regulations. While the company holds a dominant position in the U.S. market due to its regulatory compliance and trust, it faces growing competition from decentralized exchanges globally. Analysts project underperformance in 2026, with earnings potentially 14% below consensus due to compressed client assets and trading activity. Although regulatory clarity may benefit Coinbase long-term, it is unlikely to offset immediate financial pressures. Valuation scenarios range from a negative IRR in a bear case to a high IRR in an optimistic rebound, but near-term risks currently outweigh potential returns.

Odaily星球日报02/14 06:03

How ‘undervalued’ Bitcoin’s sell-offs could help set up a long-term rally

Bitcoin's recent sell-off has pushed its price down significantly, but on-chain data suggests this could be a pivotal moment for a long-term rally. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is nearing 1.1, approaching undervalued territory—a level that has historically preceded rebounds. While entering this zone doesn’t guarantee an immediate recovery, it often marks a period of accumulation before sustained upward moves. Sustained selling pressure, led by institutional investors and reflected in consistent outflows from U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, is driving Bitcoin toward deeper undervaluation. However, long-term holders show relative calm, with limited large-scale distribution. If long-term holders continue to hold or accumulate while short-term selling exhausts itself, this undervaluation phase may set the stage for a broader market rebound and potential new highs.

ambcrypto02/14 06:01

Brazil Revives Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Plan Targeting Purchase Of Up To 1 Million BTC

Brazil's House of Representatives is reviving a plan to create a national Bitcoin reserve, RESBit, through Bill No. 4,501 of 2024. The proposal aims to hold up to 1 million BTC, capped at 5% of the country's international reserves, to shield against currency risks and support the Digital Real (Drex) CBDC. The initiative includes a structured acquisition plan adhering to fiscal responsibility laws. It also proposes forming an advisory committee, promoting blockchain education, and encouraging crypto startups. Supporters cite international precedents and argue it could position Brazil as a digital finance leader in Latin America.

bitcoinist02/14 05:32

The Real Cost of Being One Minute in Prediction Markets — A Study on the Golden Entry Windows for Different Events

In prediction markets, the cost of hesitation is measured in minutes. This analysis of 2,023 on-chain trades on Polymarket reveals that the "confirmation tax"—the price paid for waiting to verify news—can be devastatingly high. The core metric is "Remaining Alpha" (1 - current price). For events that resolve to "YES" ($1), buying at $0.20 offers $0.80 in potential profit, while buying at $0.90 leaves only $0.10. The research identifies three distinct event types with their own profit decay curves: 1. **Sudden & Certain Events** (e.g., "Maduro arrested"): The golden window is the first 60 seconds, with an average entry price of $0.56 (44% Alpha). Alpha's half-life is less than 2 minutes, evaporating entirely after ~10 minutes. Strategy: Prioritize position over 100% certainty. 2. **Negotiation & Correction Events** (e.g., "SVB acquisition"): The decay is step-like. A 6-hour observation window existed with prices stable at ~$0.65, followed by a sharp price correction. Strategy: Look for confirmation signals (e.g., large smart money buys) rather than racing to be first. 3. **Priced-In Events** (e.g., "TikTok ban"): The event is highly anticipated. By the official deadline (T0), the price is already efficient (~$0.84), offering near-zero Alpha. Strategy: Avoid entering at T0; it's the finish line, not the start. The key takeaway: Time is an exponential function of money in prediction markets. A one-minute delay can mean forfeiting the vast majority of profitable alpha, turning a trader from a hunter into prey providing liquidity for others.

marsbit02/14 05:30

Berachain (BERA) could fall by another 45% IF these conditions are met!

Berachain (BERA) has declined by 18% in 24 hours and is trading near $0.655, with a 75% drop in trading volume to $331 million. Analysts warn that if BERA fails to reclaim the $0.706 support level, it could fall another 45% to around $0.35. On-chain data shows a decline in Total Value Locked (TVL), chain revenue, and DEX volume, indicating weakening user activity. Derivatives data reflects mixed sentiment, with some accumulation but strong short positions around $0.708. The ADX reading of 33.65 suggests a strong ongoing downtrend, with bearish traders currently dominating the market.

ambcrypto02/14 05:02

Bitcoin’s post-quantum plan BIP-360 gains traction, but will it reverse market sell-off?

Bitcoin is advancing its post-quantum security with the BIP-360 proposal, a soft fork designed to mitigate quantum computing risks for Taproot (P2TR) addresses. These addresses, which once held over half of Bitcoin’s supply, commit public keys on-chain, making them vulnerable to "long exposure attacks" from future quantum computers. BIP-360 proposes replacing the exposed "key-to-spend" path with Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR) to keep data private. Although Taproot usage has dropped from 54% to 22% since early 2024, the update only addresses part of the quantum risk. The proposal is seen as a step toward broader quantum security. Market analysts suggest resolving this FUD could renew investor confidence and potentially reverse the current sell-off, possibly driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

ambcrypto02/14 05:02

Analysis Report on Prediction Markets for the Russia-Ukraine War

As global tensions rise due to events like the Russia-Ukraine war, the Gaza conflict, and other geopolitical risks, the demand for open-source intelligence (OSINT) has grown significantly. This report analyzes the predictive market, particularly Polymarket, as a form of OSINT that leverages public data to forecast outcomes. Initially serving blockchain users, Polymarket gained mainstream attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election by accurately predicting Trump’s victory with 65% probability a week before results were official, reaching 90% on election night—outperforming traditional polls and media. With $3.686 billion in trading volume, the event shifted perceptions of predictive markets from mere gambling to a credible data source. The core value lies not in betting itself, but in the informational edge it provides, allowing insiders to signal outcomes—from entertainment awards to geopolitical events—through market activity. This transforms traditional information flow, enabling early insight into everything from business decisions to military movements, making market prices a powerful real-time signal.

marsbit02/14 04:19

The Cycle Without A Ceiling: Why Bitcoin’s Missing Peak Rewrites The Rules For The 2026 Bottom

Bitcoin remains below $70,000 amid persistent selling pressure and cautious market sentiment, with analysts warning a deeper correction below $60,000 is possible. However, a CryptoQuant report suggests Bitcoin may be nearing an undervalued zone based on on-chain metrics. The MVRV ratio is around 1.1, approaching levels historically linked to accumulation phases. Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin did not reach extreme overvaluation before correcting, meaning this downturn may not mirror past capitulation patterns. Technically, Bitcoin shows a bearish structure with lower highs and lows, trading below key moving averages. The $60,000 level is critical; reclaiming $70,000 is necessary for any sustained recovery.

bitcoinist02/14 04:06

Crypto’s Dark Side: Funds To Suspected Human Traffickers Climb 85% In 2025

bitcoinist02/14 04:02

Decred surges 11%: – Can DCR flip KEY price level and retest $27?

Decred (DCR) surged 11.72% to $24.12, rebounding from a recent low of $21 and approaching a key resistance level at $25. Market dynamics shifted as buyer strength rose to 62, while seller dominance dropped to 37. Key indicators, including the Accumulation/Distribution Volume and Buy-Sell Volume, showed increased accumulation with a positive buy-sell delta, signaling aggressive spot buying. The RSI made a bullish crossover to 59, and the DMI rose to 27, indicating strengthened upward momentum. If demand holds, DCR could target $27; however, a loss of momentum may lead to a pullback toward $20.

ambcrypto02/14 04:01