Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break Records, What Is the Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?
Amidst a declining crypto market, prediction markets have emerged as a standout sector. Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market platform in the U.S., reached a record monthly trading volume exceeding $9.5 billion in January, sparking renewed interest in its pre-IPO stock pricing.
Current pre-IPO share prices for Kalshi show significant discrepancies across platforms. On PreStocks, prices are around $369 (implied market cap) and $364 (capitalization-based). In contrast, Jarsy lists a price of approximately $504 per share. Meanwhile, traditional financial markets like Nasdaq Private Market and Hiive show prices around $320 and $358, respectively.
Kalshi completed a Series E funding round last year at an $11 billion valuation. Based on this, a reasonable pre-IPO share price range is estimated to be $320–$358. However, considering its surging trading volume and a projected market capitalization of at least $15 billion, a more optimistic price range of $358–$423 is plausible. This suggests Jarsy's current pricing may be high, while PreStocks might present an arbitrage opportunity.
With major sporting events in 6 expected to boost activity, Kalshi's annual revenue potential is significant, potentially exceeding earlier estimates for competitor Polymarket, which could further drive up its pre-IPO valuation.
marsbit02/11 10:57
