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US Recession Chances are Rising, Will Crypto Prices be Hit?

Chances of a US recession by the end of 2026 have increased on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, rising from around 22% in early March to approximately 35-39%. This has raised concerns about a potential global recession, which could negatively impact crypto prices as investors may reallocate funds. Current crypto prices remain stable, with BTC at $64,240.50 and ETH at $1,977.45, though fear in the market has increased. Rising oil prices, with crude at $103.22 per barrel, are a major concern and could further escalate if the Middle East conflict continues. Upcoming inflation data on March 11, 2026, is highly anticipated.

TheNewsCrypto03/09 09:24

US Recession Chances are Rising, Will Crypto Prices be Hit?

TheNewsCrypto03/09 09:24

A Turning Point Approaches: The "Net Long vs. Net Short" Structure Presents a Historically Rare State

The cryptocurrency market is exhibiting a historically rare structure in perpetual futures, with directional long positions nearly equal to directional short positions, signaling a potential major shift (变盘). Analysis using Ethena's transparency dashboard reveals that Ethena's deployed capital, which acts as a proxy for excess long demand in the market, has plummeted to $790 million—just 71% of its 2025 low and 12.9% of its October 2025 peak. This sharp decline, occurring amid relatively stable prices since Bitcoin's crash to $60,000, suggests a significant reduction in speculative long leverage and a rise in directional shorting or hedging demand, particularly from VCs and projects hedging illiquid assets. While this balanced state could theoretically persist, it is extremely uncommon in other asset markets, indicating that a volatility surge and market turn may be imminent.

marsbit03/09 09:17

A Turning Point Approaches: The "Net Long vs. Net Short" Structure Presents a Historically Rare State

marsbit03/09 09:17

Turning Point Approaching: The "Net Long vs. Net Short" Structure Presents a Historically Rare State

Kyle Soska analyzes the perpetual futures market structure using Ethena's transparency dashboard to gauge crypto market risk sentiment. Ethena's deployed capital has fallen to a multi-year low, just 71% of its 2025 minimum, indicating a sharp decline in excess long demand. Historically, directional longs significantly outnumber directional shorts, but the current market shows an almost 1:1 balance—a rare and typically unsustainable structure. This equilibrium is likely driven by increased directional shorting and hedging demand from VCs, projects, and crypto firms locking in prices or managing exposures, rather than a lack of leveraged long interest. While this balance could become the new normal, similar structures in other asset classes rarely persist long-term, suggesting a potential market turning point may be near.

Odaily星球日报03/09 09:13

Turning Point Approaching: The "Net Long vs. Net Short" Structure Presents a Historically Rare State

Odaily星球日报03/09 09:13

Bitcoin MACD Drops To Bearish Level Not Seen Since 2022 — Crypto Winter Incoming?

The price of Bitcoin has been struggling to maintain upward momentum, recently failing to break the $74,000 resistance. Technical analyst Tony Severino warns that Bitcoin's two-week Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has dropped to a bearish level not seen since the 2022 Terra (LUNA) collapse. The expanding histogram bars signal strong bearish momentum, suggesting a potential repeat of the 2022 crypto winter, during which Bitcoin fell around 40%. However, as a lagging indicator, the MACD may have already priced in current conditions. Bitcoin is currently trading around $67,520 with little change over the past day.

bitcoinist03/09 09:02

Bitcoin MACD Drops To Bearish Level Not Seen Since 2022 — Crypto Winter Incoming?

bitcoinist03/09 09:02

DEXE surges 17% as buyers dominate: Will a breakout push toward $7?

DEXE surged 17.74% to $4.37, with trading volume up 111.72% to $14.63M, indicating strong buyer interest and new capital inflow. The price is testing a key resistance level at $4.79 after forming a bottom structure. If this neckline is broken, the rally could extend toward $7.00. The RSI near 75 shows strong momentum but suggests potential short-term consolidation. Both spot and derivatives markets show aggressive buying, with Open Interest rising 51.45% to $11.12M, reflecting leveraged positioning. Overall, buyer dominance suggests continued upward movement if key resistance is reclaimed.

ambcrypto03/09 09:01

DEXE surges 17% as buyers dominate: Will a breakout push toward $7?

ambcrypto03/09 09:01

New Crypto Buyer Enters the Market: Kazakhstan Plans to Invest Up to $350 Million

Kazakhstan's central bank, under Governor Timur Suleimanov, plans to invest up to $350 million from its gold and foreign exchange reserves into the crypto asset sector, with investments set to begin between April and May. The move, which represents a cautious 0.5% of the country's total reserves, will include not only cryptocurrencies but also stocks of high-tech companies, index funds, and other crypto-related financial instruments. The National Investment Corporation (NIC) will also incorporate confiscated crypto assets from law enforcement operations into the national crypto fund. This decision follows eased regulations in January, which recognized digital financial assets as a new asset class and allowed licensed crypto exchanges. Kazakhstan currently holds 3,544 bitcoins, ranking eighth globally in government crypto holdings.

marsbit03/09 08:50

New Crypto Buyer Enters the Market: Kazakhstan Plans to Invest Up to $350 Million

marsbit03/09 08:50

New Challenges Posed by Prediction Markets to Political Elections

Predictive markets are increasingly influencing political elections, presenting new challenges for campaign teams. While polls have long shaped electoral narratives, donor confidence, and internal decisions, predictive markets introduce a different mechanism and incentive structure. Media outlets may now cite market-based probabilities, forcing campaigns to develop consistent responses. These markets reflect traders’ informed guesses rather than ground-level voter sentiment, and it remains unclear whether they function as leading or lagging indicators—or merely capture market sentiment. Internally, ethical and operational questions arise. Campaign personnel with access to non-public information (e.g., internal polls, strategy) could engage in trading that blurs the line between speculation and insider advantage. Although platforms like Kalshi enforce rules against insider trading, anonymity complicates enforcement. Conversely, predictive markets could theoretically serve as a hedging tool for staff facing electoral uncertainty. Market manipulation is a concern, though liquid markets are generally resilient against sustained manipulation. As predictive markets become embedded in media coverage and donor discussions, campaigns must proactively develop communication strategies, internal policies, and monitoring mechanisms rather than reacting passively. Preparing now will allow teams to better navigate this emerging element of the political information environment.

marsbit03/09 08:50

New Challenges Posed by Prediction Markets to Political Elections

marsbit03/09 08:50

The Person Building Robots for OpenAI Sees a Terrifying Future

Caitlin Kalinowski, head of hardware and robotics engineering at OpenAI, resigned in March 2026 in protest against the company's contract with the U.S. Department of Defense, which she believed could enable domestic surveillance and autonomous weapon applications. Her departure came shortly after OpenAI signed a deal allowing the Pentagon to use its AI models in classified networks—a contract that rival Anthropic had previously refused on ethical grounds. The announcement triggered a #QuitGPT movement, causing a 295% surge in ChatGPT uninstalls and boosting Anthropic’s Claude to the top of app stores. Under public pressure, CEO Sam Altman revised the contract to include wording against "intentional" use in domestic surveillance, though experts noted legal loopholes remained. Kalinowski’s role involved developing physical AI systems, making her particularly concerned about the potential militarization of embodied AI. Her resignation reflects broader internal dissent at OpenAI, where ethics and safety teams have seen a 37% attrition rate due to disagreements over military use and company values. The situation highlights a growing tension in Silicon Valley between commercial expansion and ethical boundaries. While Anthropic chose principle over partnership—and gained user trust—OpenAI’s acceptance of the contract signals a strategic shift that risks alienating talent and compromising transparency. Kalinowski’s exit poses a fundamental question to the industry: How far are builders willing to go in taking responsibility for what they create?

marsbit03/09 08:45

The Person Building Robots for OpenAI Sees a Terrifying Future

marsbit03/09 08:45

Behind the 25% Surge: The On-Chain Life-and-Death Game of Hyperliquid

A dramatic 25% surge in WTI crude oil prices, reaching $119.5 per barrel, has triggered a high-stakes on-chain showdown on the Hyperliquid derivatives exchange. The price spike was driven by a geopolitical crisis: the seven-day blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil supply. This event led to massive liquidations for several prominent traders who had heavily shorted oil. Key figures include trader CBB, who faced a $3.8 million unrealized loss on a $13.78 million short position, and the account "2 frères 2 fauves," the platform's largest oil short with a $3.4 million loss. Both faced liquidation at $120.76. Another whale, 0x8Af7, was fully liquidated, losing $1.55 million, only to immediately reopen a new $6.48 million short position. In contrast, Sky (formerly MakerDAO) co-founder Rune Christensen profited significantly, gaining over $1.36 million from a $7.82 million long position opened around $93. He employed a sophisticated macro-hedging strategy, simultaneously shorting ETH and equity indices to bet on war-driven oil premiums and risk-off sentiment. The event highlights the emergence and risks of on-chain commodity trading. Platforms like Hyperliquid offer democratized access to leveraged oil futures without traditional brokers or safeguards. However, the automated, unforgiving liquidation mechanisms provide no protection against black swan events like a geopolitical crisis, demonstrating that while the tools are new, the lessons of leverage and risk remain starkly old.

比推03/09 08:45

Behind the 25% Surge: The On-Chain Life-and-Death Game of Hyperliquid

比推03/09 08:45

Post-00s Kid Brother Sets AI Circle Ablaze: 10-Day Project Tops GitHub, Chen Tianqiang Invests 30 Million in a Rush

A Chinese university student, BaiFu, has taken the AI world by storm with two open-source projects—BettaFish and MiroFish—each developed in just ten days using "vibe coding" (AI-assisted rapid development). Both projects reached #1 on GitHub’s trending list. BettaFish, an AI-powered public opinion analysis tool, went viral after a post about it gained traction on social media, attracting widespread attention and investment interest. Chen Tianqiao, founder of Shanda Group, reached out and eventually invested ¥30 million (approx. $4.2 million USD) to support BaiFu’s work. Following this, BaiFu developed MiroFish—a multi-agent AI prediction engine that simulates real-world scenarios to forecast events in finance, policy, and marketing. The project again gained rapid popularity online. This success underscores the rise of the "super individual" era, where a single developer, empowered by AI tools, can quickly build, launch, and scale high-impact projects. Similar trends are emerging globally, with solo founders and small teams creating influential products and companies with unprecedented speed. BaiFu believes that in the AI era, imagination and execution speed are becoming the true drivers of innovation.

marsbit03/09 08:28

Post-00s Kid Brother Sets AI Circle Ablaze: 10-Day Project Tops GitHub, Chen Tianqiang Invests 30 Million in a Rush

marsbit03/09 08:28

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