七千万美元神话的坠落：NFT如何从拍卖行走向沃尔玛货架

比推Опубликовано 2026-01-06Обновлено 2026-01-06

Введение

NFT市场经历了从狂热到清算的完整周期。2025年，供应量激增至13.4亿枚，但销售额同比下降37%，总市值较2022年峰值缩水86%，平均成交价跌至96美元，较鼎盛时期下跌75%。顶级项目如CryptoPunks、无聊猿和Azuki地板价均超过70%的跌幅。平台方面，OpenSea收入锐减，宣布转型为通用链上交易中心；Blur和Magic Eden代币价格暴跌超98%；X2Y2则已停运。行业出现集体“逃亡”与进化趋势。胖企鹅（Pudgy Penguins）通过IP品牌化逆势突围，将数字IP转化为实体消费品，进驻全球超1万家零售渠道，年收入达5000万美元，并通过传统广告刺激二级市场流动性。无聊猿发行商Yuga Labs也将CryptoPunks交由非营利组织，寻求文化运营。 NFT功能回归现实应用，如Courtyard.io将实体卡牌代币化，FIFA在世界杯门票中引入NFT防黄牛机制。NFT正从投机工具转变为“凭证层”，嵌入IP、实物资产和功能场景中，承担确权、流转和验证的基础角色。 NFT并未“凉透”，但已从金融投机舞台退场，转向去魅后的实用重生。

作者:Sanqing,Foresight News

原标题:从七千万美金神话到 9 美元的公仔,NFT 真的「凉」透了吗?

1 月 5 日,原定于 2 月举办的 NFT Paris 开发者大会突然宣布取消。曾经彻夜派对的塞纳河畔,如今只剩下清冷的官宣推文:「市场崩盘对我们打击巨大,即便采取了激进的成本削减,我们依然无法支撑。」

五年前,数字艺术家 Beeple 的作品《Everydays: The First 5000 Days》在佳士得拍卖行以 6,930 万美元的天价成交。随后,从数千万美元成交价的 CryptoPunks 到无数由主流机构背书的数字藏品,那是 NFT 的黄金时代。

从一场被写入拍卖史的天价成交,到一个被迫取消的行业大会,NFT 用五年时间走完了从狂热到清算的完整周期。

图 – Everydays: The First 5000 Days NFT

NFT 市场供需失衡

供应爆炸。据 CryptoSlam 数据显示,2025 年供应量较 2024 年的 10 亿枚增加了 35% ,过去四年内,NFT 总量更是从 3,800 万枚飙升至 13.4 亿枚,增长了约 3,400% 。

销售萎缩。据 CryptoSlam 数据显示,2025 年 NFT 销售总额约为 56.3 亿美元,较 2024 年的 89 亿美元下降了 37% 。据 CoinGecko 数据显示,NFT 总市值从 2022 年 4 月约 170 亿美元的峰值 ,跌至 2025 年底的约 24 亿美元,跌幅约 86%。仅 2025 年一年,NFT 总市值就从 1 月的约 92 亿美元缩减至年底的规模,年内跌幅高达 68% 。

流动性摊薄。随着铸造门槛降低,市场进入「高频低价」模式。据 CryptoSlam 数据显示,平均成交价已从 2024 年的 124 美元跌至 2025 年底的 96 美元。与 2021-2022 年泡沫鼎盛时期超 400 美元的平均成交价相比,已跌去四分之三。

图源:CryptoSlam

即便曾经的顶级 NFT 项目和蓝筹 NFT 也难逃劫数。以 CryptoPunks 为例,地板价已跌至约 30 ETH,较 2021 年峰值的 125 ETH 下挫了 78%;无聊猿(BAYC)自约 30 ETH 下跌 83% 至约 5 ETH;Azuki 自约 12 ETH 下跌 93% 至 0.8 ETH。

平台方的集体「逃亡」与进化

行业领导者的动向标志着这一周期的终结。

曾稳坐 NFT 市场头把交椅的 OpenSea,平台收入从 NFT 黄金时代的每月 5000 万至 1.2 亿美元降至不及一百万。

因此 OpenSea 宣布转型,平台将从单纯的「NFT 市场」转型为「交易一切」(Trade Everything)的通用链上交易中心,涵盖物理收藏品和代币等数字资产,并确认将发行代币。

曾经出道即巅峰的 Blur,TVL 持续新低,代币价格也较高点下跌 99%。

还有 Solana 链发家的 Magic Eden,经历了一年的运营后发币,受 NFT 市场行情与空头预期落地影响,平台交易量开始萎缩,代币价格同样较高点下跌超 98%。

甚至那些跟不上时代变迁的项目,如老牌 NFT 交易市场 X2Y2 则已被淘汰,彻底停运,团队已转向 AI 领域。

从「代币」到「品牌」

在哀鸿遍野中,Pudgy Penguins 胖企鹅却成功逆势突围,成为行业异类。其成功并非依赖代币技术的复杂创新或短期投机炒作,而是通过将数字 IP 转化为实体消费品,逐步构建起一个跨越 Web3 与传统零售的可持续品牌生态。

通过 CEO Luca Netz 推行的双收入模型,胖企鹅将 IP 授权与实体商品深度结合,其实体玩具已进驻包括 Walmart(沃尔玛)、Target 和 Walgreens 在内的全球 10,000 多家零售渠道。据 AInvest 报道,这种转型为项目带来了约 5000 万美元的年收入,有效抵消了加密市场整体缩水的影响。

图 – 美国沃尔玛的 Pudgy Penguins 玩具货架

2025 年圣诞期间,胖企鹅斥资约 50 万美元在拉斯维加斯地标 Sphere(圆球)投射巨型动画。

图 – Sphere 上的 Pudgy Penguins 形象

这场面向数百万游客的广告避开加密术语和 NFT 字眼,仅以家庭友好型的 IP 形象示人,通过品牌曝光反向刺激二级市场的流动性。过去 14 天,该 NFT 地板价上涨 25%,交易量上涨约 33%。

这种从投机转向文化运营的思路似乎正成为行业幸存者的共识。去年 5 月,无聊猿(BAYC)发行商 Yuga Labs 将顶级 NFT 项目 CryptoPunks 的 IP 权利转交给非营利组织 Infinite Node Foundation,旨在将其从价格波动的投机属性中剥离,寻求更长远的艺术保护与文化运营。

实物背书与功能回归

除了 IP 品牌化,NFT 正在成为连接实体资产(RWA)的底层工具。

实物卡牌交易。平台 Courtyard.io 正在改变玩法。他们将真实的宝可梦卡牌存入经认证后的保险库,并将其代币化为 NFT。在 2025 年底的 30 天内,该平台处理了超过 23 万笔交易,产生了约 1270 万美元的销售额,证明了市场对这种高流动性、实物支撑资产的强劲需求。

功能性门票。FIFA(国际足联)也加入了这一阵营,在 2026 年世界杯门票销售中引入了「优先购买权」NFT 。这些 NFT 并非为了炒作,而是作为一种验证工具,防止二级市场的黄牛溢价和价格欺诈。

NFT 死去的是什么,留下的又是什么

NFT 并没有「凉透」,但它确实已经死过一次。

死去的,是把 NFT 视为一种可以脱离现实价值、仅凭叙事不断铸造与交易的金融资产的幻想。在供给无限,需求有限的现实面前,这条路径注定不可持续。

留下来的,是 NFT 作为一种「凭证层」的角色。它不再被要求单独创造价值,而是嵌入 IP 品牌、实物资产、功能型场景之中,承担确权、流转、参与和验证的基础功能。

从胖企鹅的玩具货架,到实物卡牌的链上流转,再到世界杯门票的防黄牛机制,NFT 正在从投机舞台退场,回到工具箱。

对 NFT 投机市场而言,这无疑是寒冬。但对 NFT 本身来说,这更像是一场去魅之后的重生。

Twitter:https://twitter.com/BitpushNewsCN

比推 TG 交流群:https://t.me/BitPushCommunity

比推 TG 订阅: https://t.me/bitpush

原文链接:https://www.bitpush.news/articles/7600451

Связанные с этим вопросы

QNFT市场在2025年出现了哪些主要变化？

A2025年NFT市场出现供应爆炸、销售萎缩和流动性摊薄三大变化。供应量较2024年增加35%，四年内总量增长约3400%；销售总额下降37%至56.3亿美元；总市值从峰值170亿美元跌至24亿美元，跌幅86%；平均成交价从124美元跌至96美元。

QOpenSea和Blur等主要交易平台在NFT市场衰退中采取了什么措施？

AOpenSea宣布从单纯NFT市场转型为“交易一切”的通用链上交易中心，涵盖物理收藏品和数字资产，并确认将发行代币。Blur的TVL持续新低，代币价格较高点下跌99%。Magic Eden代币价格下跌超98%，而老牌平台X2Y2已彻底停运转向AI领域。

QPudgy Penguins如何实现逆势增长？

APudgy Penguins通过将数字IP转化为实体消费品，采用双收入模型结合IP授权与实体商品。其玩具进驻全球1万多家零售渠道，年收入达5000万美元，并通过品牌营销（如拉斯维加斯Sphere广告）刺激二级市场流动性，14天内地板价上涨25%。

QNFT在实体资产和功能性场景中有哪些新应用？

ANFT正成为连接实体资产的工具：Courtyard.io将实体宝可梦卡牌代币化为NFT，30天交易额达1270万美元；FIFA在2026世界杯门票销售中使用NFT作为“优先购买权”凭证，防止黄牛溢价和价格欺诈。

Q文章认为NFT的“死去”和“留下”分别指什么？

A“死去”的是将NFT视为脱离现实价值、仅靠叙事交易的金融资产幻想；“留下”的是NFT作为“凭证层”的角色，嵌入IP品牌、实物资产和功能型场景中，承担确权、流转、参与和验证的基础功能。

Похожее

Kraken Plans CFTC-Regulated Perpetual Futures For US Professional Traders

Kraken plans to launch CFTC-regulated perpetual futures for eligible US professional traders through its acquired derivatives exchange, Bitnomial. These contracts, featuring continuous pricing, no expiry, and regular funding, aim to provide a regulated domestic route to a product that is central to global crypto trading but has been largely inaccessible on US platforms. The offering is expected to be integrated into Kraken Pro, allowing traders to manage various exposures in one interface. Key factors for success will include eligibility criteria, contract design, and the development of sufficient liquidity. This move could pave the way for more regulated perpetual products in the US market.

bitcoinist6 ч. назад

Kraken Plans CFTC-Regulated Perpetual Futures For US Professional Traders

bitcoinist6 ч. назад

Warsh's Debut: Will the FED Chair Who Knows Crypto Best Bring Surprises or Shocks to the Market?

Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve Chairman, prepares for his inaugural press conference amidst a challenging macroeconomic landscape: resurgent inflation, a bond market sell-off, and political pressure from President Trump for rate cuts. Uniquely, Warsh holds indirect investments in over 20 crypto and Web3 entities (e.g., Solana, dYdX), making him the first Fed Chair with disclosed crypto exposure. His stance may combine a hawkish, inflation-focused monetary policy with a crypto-friendly regulatory philosophy that shifts from Powell’s “same risk, same rule” approach toward a framework acknowledging blockchain’s productivity value. Warsh’s leadership could impact crypto markets across three dimensions: a paradigm shift in regulation (potentially accelerating pro-innovation legislation and stable币 rules), a re-pricing of risk premiums based on clearer communication and his view of AI as a structural disinflationary force, and a long-term reallocation of global institutional capital driven by increased legitimacy. Two potential scenarios for the press conference are outlined. A “positive surprise” would involve a dovish-leaning tone on rates coupled with signals of regulatory openness, potentially boosting crypto asset valuations. Conversely, a “negative shock” would see a more hawkish-than-expected stance on inflation and rates, triggering a broad risk-asset selloff that crypto markets would not escape. While ethics rules required Warsh to divest his crypto holdings upon confirmation, his deep understanding of the technology may fundamentally lower policy uncertainty and build a more receptive long-term foundation for digital assets’ integration into the mainstream financial system.

marsbit7 ч. назад

Warsh's Debut: Will the FED Chair Who Knows Crypto Best Bring Surprises or Shocks to the Market?

marsbit7 ч. назад

XRP Ledger Launches XRPLd Rebrand With Version 3.2.0 Upgrade

XRP Ledger has launched version 3.2.0, rebranding its core server software from "rippled" to "xrpld." This release focuses on back-end upgrades, including major memory optimizations that can reduce server memory usage by up to 40% and architectural improvements for future scaling. Key updates enhance security for features like vaults, lending, and decentralized exchanges, and introduce new invariant checks for ledger consistency. The upgrade also adds the capability for applications to retrieve protocol information without connecting to a server, aiding wallet and API development. Additional changes aim to improve enterprise connectivity and performance, featuring configurable block sizes and an updated default peering port, along with various fixes for core network functions.

TheNewsCrypto7 ч. назад

XRP Ledger Launches XRPLd Rebrand With Version 3.2.0 Upgrade

TheNewsCrypto7 ч. назад

AGI is Not the End, DeepMind's New Paper: Moving Towards ASI, the Real AI Progress Has Just Begun

In a new report, Google DeepMind researchers argue that achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is not the end goal, but rather a step toward Artificial Superintelligence (ASI). They outline four potential pathways for this transition: 1) continued scaling of compute, models, and data; 2) algorithmic evolution and potential paradigm shifts; 3) recursive self-improvement; and 4) multi-agent coordination and collective intelligence. The report also identifies six key bottlenecks that could hinder progress: data limitations (the "data wall"), economic and resource pressures, limitations of current neural network paradigms, increasing research difficulty, "abstraction barriers" in forming new concepts, and regulatory and societal pushback. Looking ahead, the authors emphasize the need for new evaluation methods once AI surpasses human benchmarks. They call for a large-scale, interdisciplinary effort to prepare for a future where AI-driven advancements could trigger transformative changes across multiple fields. The path and speed of progress remain uncertain, constrained by physical laws, computational complexity, and real-world feedback loops.

marsbit8 ч. назад

AGI is Not the End, DeepMind's New Paper: Moving Towards ASI, the Real AI Progress Has Just Begun

marsbit8 ч. назад

Kraken Launches Pre-IPO Perps For OpenAI And Anthropic With Up To 5x Leverage

Kraken has launched pre-IPO perpetual futures contracts for private AI giants OpenAI and Anthropic, offering eligible traders up to 5x leverage. These derivatives provide synthetic exposure to the companies' valuations ahead of any public listing, tapping into high investor demand for AI themes. However, the product carries unique risks compared to standard crypto perpetuals, as private company valuations lack transparent, continuous pricing and depend on funding rounds, secondary transactions, and IPO timelines. This move signals crypto exchanges' expansion into alternative speculative markets beyond digital assets, though it raises questions about risk management, liquidity, and investor understanding, especially when using leverage.

bitcoinist8 ч. назад

Kraken Launches Pre-IPO Perps For OpenAI And Anthropic With Up To 5x Leverage

bitcoinist8 ч. назад

Торговля

Спот

Фьючерсы

Обсуждения

Добро пожаловать в Сообщество HTX. Здесь вы сможете быть в курсе последних новостей о развитии платформы и получить доступ к профессиональной аналитической информации о рынке. Мнения пользователей о цене на HOUSE (HOUSE) представлены ниже.