Key Takeaways
Does XRP’s ETF optimism guarantee a sustained rally?
No, XRP’s ETF optimism may provide temporary relief, but weak network growth and negative address divergence limit lasting bullish momentum.
What do recent Open Interest and on-chain metrics suggest about XRP?
Falling Open Interest and subdued on-chain activity indicate cautious traders and insufficient speculative support for a strong, sustainable rally.
Ripple’s[XRP] spot ETF landscape is evolving.
Franklin Templeton’s filing has been extended into November, while the REX-Osprey XRPR ETF, launched on the 18th of September, recorded $37.7 million in trading volume on its first day, making it one of the largest ETF debuts of the year
However, the Spot Taker CVD (90-day) still shows sellers dominating, suggesting profit-taking and heavy sell pressure remain intact.
Despite intermittent buyer strength during summer, sellers quickly regained control, leaving momentum tilted against bulls.
This imbalance highlights the short-term risk facing XRP, where ETF optimism must confront a market struggling to generate decisive buyer inflows and break sustained red pressure.
Network growth and transactions fall short of fueling demand
On-chain signals remain underwhelming, with XRP’s network growth sliding to just 4,849 while transaction counts hover around 617K. Both metrics are near low levels, underscoring muted adoption and weaker user engagement.
Historically, subdued network activity has reduced XRP’s ability to sustain price rallies, even when broader optimism increases.
ETF approval may provide temporary relief, but structural growth requires consistent network expansion and higher transaction activity.
Unless new participants begin contributing meaningfully, the underlying weakness threatens to weigh down bullish momentum despite favorable regulatory catalysts.
Source: Santiment
Is declining address activity warning of deeper cracks?
Daily Active Addresses divergence further illustrates XRP’s fragile momentum, with participation lagging price action and signaling weaker organic growth.
The persistent negative DAA divergence suggests traders are hesitant to remain engaged while network adoption fails to strengthen.
In such environments, rallies often prove unsustainable because prices climb without matching growth in active user bases.
As activity stagnates, XRP risks losing alignment between demand and valuation, which makes ETF optimism appear speculative rather than supported by fundamentals. Address divergence continues to cast doubt on lasting bullish traction.
Source: Santiment
Open Interest slides as traders cut exposure cautiously
Open Interest (OI) in XRP derivatives dropped by 3.34% to $7.33 billion, reflecting reduced speculative positioning across futures markets.
This decline suggests traders are stepping back from aggressive bets, showing caution rather than conviction.
While reduced exposure can lower volatility in the short term, it also signals weaker appetite for risk-taking and diminished leverage support for rallies.
Historically, significant uptrends in XRP have coincided with rising OI, highlighting the importance of derivative activity. Current trends point instead toward fading speculative strength as ETF anticipation builds.
Source: CoinGlass
Can ETF optimism offset on-chain weakness?
Despite growing speculation around XRP’s ETF approval, the dominance of sellers, subdued network activity, negative address divergence, and falling OI all underline significant headwinds.
For XRP to stage a sustainable rally, investor demand must align with stronger on-chain growth rather than relying solely on regulatory developments.
ETF approval may ignite temporary price relief, yet without renewed activity across the network and derivatives markets, upside momentum risks fading quickly.
The evidence suggests XRP needs deeper structural participation before optimism translates into lasting gains.
