Key Takeaway
Bitcoin fluctuates between $116K–$119K, with analysts eyeing $122K as a key resistance level. Declining spot buys and rising unrealized profits hint at short-term losses before a potential bull breakout.
Over the past week, Bitcoin [BTC] has oscillated between $116,000 and $119,000, with no significant gains or losses recorded.
AMBCrypto’s analysis notes that a further decline could be on the horizon, potentially creating the conditions for Bitcoin to test the $122,000 mark, a level that could determine whether the market is entering a bullish phase.
Why $122K is critical for Bitcoin’s bull run
According to the Long-Term Power Law chart on Alphractal, Bitcoin has yet to breach a major resistance level that would confirm broader market sentiment—bullish or bearish.
This macro-level indicator offers insight into where long-term demand and supply zones might exist.
The chart identifies $122,000 as the most critical resistance level that Bitcoin must overcome to sustain a bull rally.
Source: Alphractal
Failure to break above this level could see Bitcoin continue its consolidation pattern or even trend downward.
AMBCrypto’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin is likely to decline in the short term before any potential upward move.
Liquidity outflows amidst rising profitability
Several on-chain metrics point to the possibility of a downward move. Notably, there’s been a consistent week-over-week outflow in spot market activity, suggesting waning investor interest.
In just the past three weeks, total spot buys have dropped significantly, from $658.76 million on the 7th of July to $209.29 million later that week, and now down to just $97.13 million according to CoinGlass.
This continued decline signals fading long-term interest in the asset, even though Bitcoin still holds above key bullish thresholds on the macro chart.
Source: CryptoQuant
At the same time, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator on CryptoQuant has surged in the past day, reaching 0.57 at press time.
This indicates a growing share of unrealized profits in the market, which often precedes a wave of selling.
A high NUPL suggests a stronger likelihood of a sell-off. If realized, this would likely exert additional downward pressure on Bitcoin, pushing it toward new short-term lows.
How low could it go?
An analysis of the 24-hour Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmap shows a likely decline toward the $116,000 region.
A concentration of liquidity clusters near that level could act as a magnet, drawing the price downward.
Additionally, these same clusters could serve as demand zones, potentially reversing the price back to the upside.
Source: CoinGlass
Should this bounce occur, Bitcoin may then move into upward liquidity zones that extend as far as the $123,000 region.
In summary, a short-term decline may be necessary for Bitcoin to gather enough strength to break through the $122,000 resistance.
If successful, the move could mark the beginning of a more sustained bull run.
