展望 BTCFi 的未来：超越以太坊，构建面向下一代 Mass Adoption 的 DeFi 生态

深潮Опубликовано 2024-09-25Обновлено 2024-09-25

这轮周期，随着圈外机构的逐步进场、基础设施的不断完善，我们将见证 BTCFi 驱动的下一个 DeFi 浪潮的到来。

比特币的飞速发展

比特币，作为全球首个加密货币，有着最高的社会共识和安全性，已然成为了数字黄金。在这一轮周期中，比特币在基础设施、应用和共识方面取得了飞速发展。

基础设施的提升

扩展主网可编程性的 OP_CAT 操作码和 BitVM 计算范式逐步完善，众多 BTC Layer2 与互操作协议相继上线。

应用的创新

Ordinals 和 Runes 协议为比特币生态引入原生资产， Babylon 原生生息方案为比特币生态注入活力，BTCFi 生态完成了从零到一的突破。

共识的增强

比特币主网迎来了第四次区块奖励减半，矿工奖励减半，挖矿成本持续攀升。

传统市场的突破

BTC ETF 已获得美国和香港监管机构的批准，允许散户与机构投资者将比特币纳入其投资组合。

展望未来，随着比特币网络可编程性的不断提高以及代币共识的增强，比特币的总市值与 DeFi 生态市值将远不止于此。比特币在 BTCFi 领域的迅猛发展，将为加密世界，乃至全球金融体系带来革命性的变化。

BTCFi 的广阔前景

比特币的市场前景不可估量，在全球金融市场中的影响力正持续扩大。

尽管比特币协议的 TVL（总锁仓价值） 正在逐年增长，但截至 2024 年第二季度，BTCFi（比特币去中心化金融） 的总 TVL 仅占比特币总市值的 1%。相比之下，以太坊主网协议及 Layer2 的总 TVL 占 ETH FDV（完全稀释估值） 的 18.6%。保守估计，如果 BTCFi 能达到以太坊 DeFi 生态的相应规模，至少还有20 倍的增长空间，这将创造一个千亿美元级别的蓝海市场。

BTCFi 生态需要满足以下三点关键需求，即将充分释放这一蓝海市场的潜力：

坚实的基础层角色

BTCFi 生态需要充分释放以比特币主网及侧链作为其他代币化资产的基础发行层的潜力，通过提供最安全和稳固的技术支持，为 DeFi 应用奠定坚实基础。

比特币的生产力提升

BTCFi 生态需要满足市场对提高比特币资产生产力日益强烈的需求。用户期望比特币不仅作为价值储存手段，还能积极参与各种金融活动，通过抵押借贷、流动性质押、再质押等方式充分利用他们的 BTC，实现资产增值。

真正去中心化的金融体系

BTCFi 生态需要构建一个真正体现比特币去中心化原则的金融体系，减少对中心化机构的依赖，为全球用户提供更加公平、透明的金融服务。

随着主网编程码、扩展方案、零知识证明、AVS 跨链通信等技术的不断发展，这些需求将逐步得到满足，比特币 DeFi 的潜力被持续释放。

超越以太坊DeFi的潜力

在去中心化金融（DeFi）领域，以太坊长期以来一直处于领先地位，主要得益于其强大的智能合约功能和丰富的应用生态系统。

然而，在当前的市场周期中，随着以太坊共识机制的分散化和机构化浪潮的涌现，BTCFi 有望超越以太坊 DeFi，主导未来的机构化 DeFi 市场。

ETH/BTC 率持续降低

当前的市场周期前所未有地重视合规性、用户增长和稳定的盈利模式。币安在一年内在合规方面的投资高达 2.13 亿美元；同时，币安持续上线了 $NOT、$CATI 等 TON 生态代币。诸如 Ethena 等 Delta 中性链上金融产品也受到广泛支持。DeFi 正在从投机工具，逐步转变为推进普惠金融的下一代金融手段。

相比于以太坊的 DeFi，BTCFi 更适合未来的市场需求，有望通过长期的战略和解决方案，填补市场空白，推动行业的持续发展。

比特币生态系统的发展趋势

开发者数量的增长

截至 2024 年 1 月，以太坊的月活跃开发者人数为 7864 人，较上一年下降了 25%。相比之下，比特币的开发者数量仍在稳健增长，逐步突破了 1000 人。这一趋势表明，比特币生态系统在开发者社区中的吸引力正在增强，预示着更多创新应用的出现。

图左：以太坊开发者数量自2022年末以来呈现明显下降趋势；图右：比特币开发者数量稳步上升

机构持仓的增加

随着比特币逐渐被视为数字黄金和另类资产的首选，越来越多的机构投资者开始配置比特币资产。这些机构投资者通常持仓周期较长，对 BTC 的无风险增值有着强烈的需求。自 BTC 和 ETH 的 ETF 通过以来，机构对比特币的净流入持续增长，而以太坊的净流入则相对减少。

图左： ETH ETF 通过后净流入持续走低；图右： BTC ETF 通过后净流入稳步上涨

无与伦比的网络安全性和代币通缩机制

比特币网络以其高度的安全性著称，经历了时间的检验。其庞大的算力和去中心化特性确保了网络的稳健性和抗攻击能力。这使得比特币成为高安全性金融场景的理想选择。比特币预设的通缩与减半机制有效保证着代币市值的稳定增长。

创新的技术扩展

通过闪电网络、RGB 等扩展方案和侧链技术，比特币正在突破其在智能合约功能上的限制。这些技术创新使比特币能够支持更复杂的 DeFi 应用，同时保持主链的安全和稳定性。

总结

自 2020 年 DeFi Summer 以来，DeFi 已经走过了整整4年的周期，现有 DeFi 的服务用户和产品质量与当年有明显的区别。这轮周期，随着圈外机构的逐步进场、基础设施的不断完善，我们将见证 BTCFi 驱动的下一个 DeFi 浪潮的到来，将全球对 BTC 的广泛共识拓展到 DeFi 场景，为 Web3 带来更大规模的采用。

关于 Uniquid Layer

Uniquid Layer 是为更广泛的社区设计的流动性平台，致力于成为比特币领域的新手的门户起点，以最高安全性实现比特币收益最大化。

Website：https：//uniquid.io

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