Bitcoin continue to lag behind tech stocks and the broader U.S. equity market. Although the Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq: IXIC) dropped by 1.7% following the post-dovish Fed rate cut, Bitcoin fell even harder, by 2.4%.
In fact, the crypto asset has not lived up to its ‘higher beta tech stock’ narrative in H2 2025.
While tech stocks, as tracked by the Nasdaq Composite, posted a 17% gain, Bitcoin [BTC] lost about 15% in the past six months. Put differently, you’d be better off investing in Nasdaq than BTC this year.
Last week, BTC decoupled from the Nasdaq, as the price dipped from $94k to below $90k, further reinforcing the crypto’s underperformance ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision.
What’s next for BTC?
On the macro front, we have the U.S. inflation data (Consumer Price Index, CPI) scheduled for Thursday (18th), followed by the BoJ rate decision on Friday (19th December).
Although the latter is the most tracked and, to some extent, drives current short-term caution, Glassnode founders downplayed its impact. The duo said,
“The BoJ rate hike trade is the most overcrowded trade today. 25 bps hike is already priced in. The only negative outcome is a hawkish forward guidance.”
For perspective, past BoJ rate hikes have triggered a 20%-30% drop in BTC price, and a repeat of the same could push BTC lower.
The Glassnode founders added that BTC was still in a ‘bottoming phase’ and the $85.5-$87k area could be visited this week.
“Over the next few days, there is a major liquidation cluster at $85.5-87k. Considering the loaded macro data week ahead, this is a likely area to revisit as volatility picks up.”
Will $83K support hold?
From an on-chain perspective, the $83k price level also doubled as the average cost basis for U.S. spot BTC ETFs. Defending the $83k support could set the stage for a rebound, noted one analyst.
Despite BTC being a laggard, Glassnode founders noted that it could go higher if “small cap equities hold their current range their current range.”
Still, the Dubai-based Derivatives Trading Desk of Laser Digital told AMBCrypto that 2026 will be constructive for crypto.
In an email statement, the firm highlighted a ‘heavy wall’ at $94k for BTC, but added,
“These (CPI & labor data) should clear the runway for participants to begin rebuilding long exposure into 2026. The combination of a new Fed chairman and upcoming liquidity regulations is likely to create a more constructive backdrop for risk assets.”
Final Thoughts
- Despite short-term caution ahead of this week’s macro updates, analysts remained bullish.
- Glassnode founders projected that BTC could slide to $85k-$87k for liquidity hunt before surging higher.
