Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Golem (@web 3_golem)
A major macroeconomic event this month is whether the U.S. government will shut down by the end of January. Last October, the U.S. government shut down for 43 days, and it only resumed operations after the passage of a temporary funding bill. January 30 is the expiration date of the temporary funding bill. If Congress fails to pass a formal funding bill or if there is no new temporary bill to extend it, the U.S. government will shut down again.
This time, the dispute between the two U.S. parties mainly revolves around the funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Democrats believe that ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) has issues with its enforcement actions in Minnesota, resulting in two deaths, and they want to strictly restrict funding and related operations. However, Republicans disagree, arguing that ICE is a key force in combating illegal immigration and welfare fraud. As a result, the two sides are at a stalemate. (For details on the dispute between the U.S. parties, please read: Will the U.S. Government Shutdown Storm Strike Again, and Will the Crypto Circle Repeat the Crash Script?)
It is this confrontational state and the approaching expiration date of the temporary funding bill that have sharply increased the probability of a U.S. government shutdown at the end of January in prediction markets. However, this morning, Polymarket data showed that the probability of the U.S. government shutting down at the end of January has continued to decline and currently stands at 42%, down from a previous high of 80%.
Price changes in prediction markets reflect the results of collective wisdom and博弈. The rising probability that the U.S. government will not shut down at the end of January indicates that people believe the high certainty of a government shutdown, as suggested by the prediction market probabilities, no longer exists under the current U.S. political situation.
Midterm Elections Are the Key Focus of Both U.S. Parties
On January 28, regarding the risk of another possible U.S. government shutdown, U.S. Treasury Secretary Besant stated that the situation is still unclear but emphasized that President Trump has urged the Democratic side to avoid this outcome.
This government shutdown crisis is essentially because the Democrats have caught the Republicans in a political counterattack. The shooting death of a U.S. citizen by ICE officers in Minnesota on January 24 was essentially a result of the Trump administration's increased immigration enforcement efforts, which also led to large-scale public protests expressing dissatisfaction with the Trump administration. The Democrats seized this opportunity and used it as an excuse to block the passage of the funding bill in the Senate. Since it reflects the demands of voters, the Democrats have taken the political initiative in this counterattack.
The Republicans have thus been put in a passive position. If the U.S. government does shut down as a result, the Democrats could blame the Republican government for any subsequent economic and民生 issues (such as delayed economic data releases and large-scale flight delays at airports).
This series of potential chain reactions will also affect the issue that both U.S. parties truly care about this year: the midterm elections.
The U.S. "midterm elections" are held in the second year of a presidential term. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for election, and approximately one-third of the seats in the Senate are typically up for election. Currently, the Republicans hold a majority in both the House (218 seats) and the Senate (53 seats). For the Republicans to maintain their seat advantage after the midterm elections at the end of the year and reduce governance difficulties, they cannot accumulate too many "stains" politically this year.
Additionally, although the midterm elections do not involve the presidential election, they are also seen as a "midterm referendum" on the incumbent president, affecting the president's policy orientation in the latter two years and reshaping the党内权力结构 and the candidate landscape for the next presidential election. Therefore, it is extremely important for Trump as well.
From the above analysis, it can be seen that this government shutdown is no longer simply a funding issue but a political battlefield set up in advance by both U.S. parties for the midterm elections at the end of the year. The Republicans, in a passive position, are highly likely to compromise to resolve the crisis and矛盾.
For the Democrats, if the Republicans compromise, it would also be a political victory.
Compromise Is Already Underway
This U.S. government shutdown crisis will not be a "full shutdown" like last October (when all 12 funding bills expired). The scale of the shutdown may be much smaller. Funding for the Commerce Department (responsible for releasing GDP data) and the Agriculture Department (responsible for food benefits) has already been secured, but about 78% of federal government functions—involving the remaining six funding bills—may face funding cuts.
The Democrats have already given the Republicans a way out. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on January 28 that Senate Democrats are "prepared to quickly advance five funding bills by the January 30 deadline, separate from the Department of Homeland Security funding bill," which could be a way to avoid a large-scale government shutdown. However, Senate Republicans have not yet agreed to separate the DHS bill from the overall funding package.
On the other hand, it is unrealistic to demand changes to the DHS funding before January 30, as any changes to the remaining six funding bills must be approved by the House of Representatives, which will not reconvene until February 2.
For the Democrats, forcing the U.S. government into a shutdown state by being too rigid about amending the funding bill would not be of much benefit, and the "offensive and defensive positions" with the Republicans could even reverse. Therefore, the current consensus between the two U.S. parties may be to pass a temporary funding bill to first address the potential government shutdown and postpone the矛盾 between the two parties.
Just as Odaily was writing this article speculating that the two parties might compromise to avoid a government shutdown, The New York Times also reported that Trump is reaching a possible agreement with Chuck Schumer to avoid a U.S. government shutdown.
According to two informed officials, under the plan being developed, the Senate would separate one of the six spending bills, which aims to fund the Department of Homeland Security, to maintain funding for the military, medical programs, and other federal agencies for the remainder of the fiscal year. The Senate will pass these bills by the Friday midnight deadline, and Congress will also consider a short-term extension of homeland security operations to prevent service disruptions at the TSA, Coast Guard, and FEMA.
It is still unclear how this potential agreement will affect this week's funding bill vote, but it at least shows that the White House and the Senate are working toward resolving the crisis.
