Trading Moment: Silver Plunges After Hitting New High, Institutions Warn of Precious Metals Correction Risk, Bitcoin Shows 'Dead Cat Bounce'?

Daily key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

At the start of the new week, the precious metals market took center stage. Spot silver broke through $84/oz to hit a new historical high, but then faced selling pressure from profit-taking, quickly plunging and turning negative intraday, eventually fluctuating around $78. This rollercoaster ride directly impacted related financial products, with spot gold retreating from near its historical high of $4550, and platinum and palladium both falling close to or over 7%. Beyond the traditional logic of Fed rate cut expectations and continued central bank gold buying, the market began pricing in a new narrative of "commodity control," where the importance of geopolitics and supply chain security is increasingly highlighted, especially after China announced export licensing for silver effective January 1, 2026, further exacerbating expectations of tight global physical supply. However, market divergence also intensified. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margins on silver futures for the second time in two weeks, sparking concerns about a historical replay of the 2011 silver crash triggered by similar measures. Institutions like Goldman Sachs remain bullish on gold continuing its strength into 2026, with a target price potentially exceeding $4900, but UBS and Capital Economics warned that precious metal prices have detached from fundamentals, accumulating correction risks, with Capital Economics even predicting silver could fall back to $42 by the end of next year. For silver, despite its strong industrial demand in sectors like solar energy, analysis suggests that prices reaching $134/oz could lead to demand destruction; while copper, as a potential substitute, poses little short-term threat as factory retrofits take at least 4 years. Institutions like Guojin Securities believe the 2026 investment theme is already visible across commodities, supply chains, and foreign exchange markets—under a structure where investment outweighs consumption,大宗商品 trading ranges are lengthening, China's manufacturing advantages are prominent, and industrial resources resonating with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery are worth watching.

Compared to the剧烈 volatility in the precious metals market, the cryptocurrency market overall was permeated with cautious and sluggish sentiment, even as Bitcoin broke through $90,000 again today. Most analysts are cautious about the outlook. For example, analyst Killa believes that although there might be short-term bounces, the broader trend is still downward seeking support below $70,000, judging that this cycle has ended. Ali Charts expressed similar views, suggesting that against a backdrop of net capital outflows reaching $4.5 billion and Bitcoin ETFs seeing nearly $1 billion in net outflows over the past two weeks, any rebound is likely a "dead cat bounce" lacking support from spot demand. A report from 10x Research also pointed out that current crypto market trading volume is 30% lower than normal, with undercurrents beneath the surface calm making the market particularly fragile. However, there are also bullish voices in the market. Analyst Astronomer, through liquidity analysis, indicated that the market has built sufficient short liquidity in the $94,000 to $95,000 region, creating conditions for a price surge towards the $112,000 target. Michaël van de Poppe expects that as funds rotate from the overheated precious metals market to the crypto market, Bitcoin could move towards $100,000 in the coming week. Analyst Plan B, by recalling the history of the 2021 bull market which experienced a correction of over 50% mid-cycle before hitting new highs, suggested the current pullback might just be a normal correction within the cycle. Samson Mow made the bold assertion that "2025 is the bear market," predicting Bitcoin might embark on a decade-long bull run. On the technical front, analysts are closely watching key levels. Ardi pointed out that whether Bitcoin can effectively break through the resistance zone between $90,000 and $94,600, and hold the support band between $80,000 and $86,300, is core to judging the future direction.

Ethereum broke through $3000 again, but market sentiment remains cautious. On-chain analyst Murphy provided a deeper analysis, suggesting the main矛盾 (contradiction) for Ethereum currently is not the overhead selling pressure from trapped positions, but the overly dispersed structure of profitable筹码 (chips/holdings) below. He noted that $2700 is one of the few levels that can form a consensus strong承接区 (support area); if lost, the price could enter a "vacuum zone" lacking effective support, with the nearest gap area below between $1800 and $2600. Nonetheless, he also observed that the whale group holding over 100,000 ETH has been adding positions near $2700, showing a posture of "long-term optimism, short-term caution." For short-term movements, technical analyst CyrilXBT described Ethereum as a "coiled spring," believing it needs to break through $3345 to release upward momentum. Michaël van de Poppe gave specific key levels: $2775 is an unbreakable support level, otherwise it could trigger a chain reaction decline; while a break above the $3000 resistance could lead to a rapid冲击 (assault) on $3650.

The market is currently most concerned about the TGE of the decentralized perpetual exchange Lighter, widely expected to occur on December 29. According to its airdrop details, the team confirmed the airdrop will account for 25% of the total supply, requiring no claim and will be sent directly to user wallets. The team also clarified that recent large token transfers were for safeguarding investor and team allocations. Meanwhile, the public chain project Flow experienced a security incident over the weekend, where an attacker exploited a vulnerability in its execution layer to transfer approximately $3.9 million, leading validators to temporarily halt operations to deploy a fix; the project team stated that user balances were unaffected and the protocol faces no solvency risk. Additionally, the ZEROBASE token ZBT saw its price briefly突破 (break through) $0.2, with a 78% gain in 24 hours.

2. Key Data (As of 13:00 HKT, December 29)

(Data sources: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $89,989 (Year-to-date -3.25%), daily spot trading volume $31.45 billion

• Ethereum: $3,033 (Year-to-date -9.2%), daily spot trading volume $28.28 billion

• Fear & Greed Index: 24 (Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei

• Market Dominance: BTC 59.1%, ETH 12%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: BTC, ZBT, XRP, ETH, 0G

• 24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 50.99% / 49.01%

• Sector Performance: Crypto sectors generally rose, SocialFi sector up over 3%, only Layer2 sector slightly down

• 24-hour Liquidation Data: 61,926 people liquidated globally, total liquidation amount $151 million,其中 (including) BTC liquidations $41.87 million, ETH liquidations $35.69 million, ZEC liquidations $6.55 million

3. ETF Flows (As of December 26)

• Bitcoin ETFs: Net outflow of $782 million last week, BlackRock's IBIT led with net outflow of $435 million

• Ethereum ETFs: Net outflow of $102 million last week, BlackRock's ETHA led with net outflow of $69.42 million

• Solana ETF: Net inflow of $13.14 million last week

• XRP ETF: Net inflow of $64 million last week

4. Today's Preview

• "Lantian Gerui Case" fund refund registration deadline is December 29, missing it may affect fund return

• Binance will delist EIGEN/FDUSD, ARB/FDUSD and other FDUSD margin trading pairs on December 30

• Web3 game studio ChronoForge will shut down on December 30 due to funding shortage

• Padre: PADRE holders will receive PUMP based on their holdings, need to submit wallet address by December 30

• SHFE: From close on December 30, price limits for gold and silver futures contracts adjusted to 15%,同时 (simultaneously) adjusting margin ratios

• SDIC Silver LOF: Class A定投 (fixed investment)上限 (upper limit) reduced back to 100 yuan, Class C shares will begin suspending subscriptions, effective December 29

• 51VR, Chantecaille (Linshangtang) expected to list on HKEX on December 30

• Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock approximately 9.92 million tokens at 15:30 on December 29, representing about 2.87% of circulating supply, value approx. $256 million;

• Kamino (KMNO) will unlock approximately 229 million tokens at 20:00 on December 30, representing about 5.35% of circulating supply, value approx. $11.8 million;

• Slash Vision Labs (SVL) will unlock approximately 234 million tokens at 08:00 on December 30, representing about 2.96% of circulating supply, value approx. $6.8 million;

• Zora (ZORA) will unlock approximately 166 million tokens at 08:00 on December 30, representing about 4.17% of circulating supply, value approx. $6.7 million.

Today's Top 100 Coins by Market Cap - Maximum Gains: Canton Network up 11.3%, Midnight up 10.3%, DoubleZero up 4.7%, Lido DAO up 4.5%, Zcash up 3.9%.

5. Hot News

• Data: HYPE, SUI, EIGEN and other tokens to see large unlocks next week,其中 (with) HYPE unlock value approx. $256 million

• Weekly Preview | EU, UK, Hong Kong and other regions implement relevant new regulations for digital assets; Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock tokens worth ~$256 million

• Suspected Trend Research purchased another 11,520 ETH, worth $34.93 million

• Analysis: Bitcoin spot ETFs累计 (accumulated) net outflows nearly $6 billion over past nine weeks, market funding and sentiment remain under pressure

• Hyperliquid's weekly revenue仅为 (only) $9.16 million, hitting a new low since early May

• Solana DEX spot trading volume year-to-date exceeds $1.7 trillion, surpassing Bybit to rank second

• A whale withdrew 2,218 ETH, 37.1 million SKY, and 4,772 AAVE from Kraken 7 hours ago

• Spot silver breaks through $80/oz, setting a new record

• Hyperliquid Co-founder: 1.2 million HYPE tokens will be allocated to team members on January 6 after unlock

• Bubblemaps: Meme coin project ATLAS疑似 (suspected) insider trading, 68 wallets already hold 47% of token supply

• Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative premium for two consecutive weeks, currently reported at -0.0784%

• 100 million UNI burned from Uniswap treasury, worth $596 million

• Flow hacked for $3.9 million loss, user deposits unaffected