After peaking at $126,000 in October, Bitcoin entered a bear market, falling to around $57,000 before continuing to trade sideways above $60,000.
While discussions continue on whether Bitcoin, which has been moving sideways between $60,000 and $65,000 for some time now, has reached its bottom, one analyst has pointed to October as a potential bottom.
Benjamin Cowen, a popular market analyst, stated in his latest YouTube update that Bitcoin has entered a critical period that could determine the final direction of the current bear market, asserting that October is the most suitable month for potentially reaching a bottom.
The analyst claims that from Bitcoin's perspective, the next 60 days could be crucial for understanding when the market will reach its bottom in this cycle.
The Similarity Between 2018 and 2022 is Striking!
The analyst notes that the current market structure bears similarities to the price dynamics from 2018 to 2022.
According to the analyst, in both cycles, $BTC lost value in May and June, then recovered in July, before facing new selling pressure in August and September.
In this context, a similar pattern is now being observed with Bitcoin: after a decline in May and June, a recovery occurred in July.
According to the analyst, if historical trends repeat in 2026, Bitcoin could initially fall from current levels to around $56,000, and if selling pressure intensifies, it could fall further to $50,000.
The Next 60 Days are Crucial for Bitcoin!
Analyst Cowen states that his 60-day warning for $BTC is based on the four-year cycle, adding that the next 60 days could determine the final move of the current bear market.
At this stage, the analyst notes that the two previous major cycle lows for Bitcoin occurred approximately 1432 and 1436 days after the previous cycle lows.
The analyst, adapting the historical cycle lows to the current cycle, notes that Bitcoin is currently on approximately the 1360th day since its previous cycle low.
In this context, the analyst notes that adding the next 60 days will bring this period to approximately 1420 days, bringing the timing of previous cycle lows closer to the timing of a potential bottom. The analyst also emphasizes that Bitcoin's major bear market bottoms were observed in January 2015, December 2018, and November 2022, and that the timeline is gradually shifting forward.
In this context, Cowen believes October 2026 is a likely bottom for the current cycle.
However, the analyst notes that these are merely forecasts, and that historical data and seasonal trends are not a definitive price indicator.
*This is not investment advice.
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