# Futures Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Futures", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Rare Annualized Rate of 400%: Is TradeXYZ Handing Out Money to Oil Bulls?

Amidst volatile oil markets due to geopolitical tensions, Trade.xyz’s WTIOIL-USDC perpetual contract exhibited an unusually negative annualized funding rate of -300% to -400%. This meant long positions received approximately 1% of their position value daily from shorts. The anomaly stemmed from the structure of WTI futures curves in extreme backwardation, where near-month (May) contracts traded at a significant premium to far-month (June) contracts. Trade.xyz’s oracle gradually shifts price weighting from near-month to far-month over five trading days during rollover. Anticipating this decline, traders heavily shorted the perpetual, driving the funding rate deeply negative. Three strategies were discussed: 1. Shorting Trade.xyz’s contract while going long on CME’s far-month futures—initially profitable but later eroded by high funding costs. 2. Shorting far-month futures and longing Trade.xyz’s near-month contract before rollover, which gained traction as arbitrage opportunities emerged. 3. Betting against funding rates via Boros, a rate-trading platform, though limited by low leverage and high slippage. The situation highlights how DeFi traders are adapting to traditional futures mechanics and advanced instruments like rate markets, reflecting the evolving infrastructure of crypto-native trading platforms.

marsbit04/10 08:29

Rare Annualized Rate of 400%: Is TradeXYZ Handing Out Money to Oil Bulls?

marsbit04/10 08:29

EDGEX drops 10% as sentiment flips bearish: Will long positions unwind next?

EDGEX has declined by 10.5% in the past 24 hours, signaling a potential reversal after a strong two-week rally where it gained up to 92%. The downturn is driven by weakening fundamentals and a sharp shift in investor sentiment. Bullish sentiment dropped from over 80% to just 33% within a day, with two-thirds of investors now expecting further downside. The number of holders also decreased significantly, accelerating capital outflows and reducing market capitalization by over $34 million. Despite bearish spot market conditions, futures traders maintain a positive funding rate, indicating dominant long positions. This divergence raises the risk of cascading liquidations if the decline continues, potentially amplifying selling pressure.

ambcrypto04/09 20:27

EDGEX drops 10% as sentiment flips bearish: Will long positions unwind next?

ambcrypto04/09 20:27

Bitcoin holds $70K: Why ‘phantom leverage’ raises risk of a BTC reversal

Bitcoin's recent rally to $72,000, partly influenced by geopolitical developments, has led to increased optimism in the derivatives market. However, analysts warn of underlying risks. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio reached 1.13, indicating strong buyer aggression, but the USDT Refresh Rate Z-Score registered -1.58, suggesting the market is being driven by unrealized profits rather than new capital. This "phantom leverage" makes the current uptrend fragile and vulnerable to a sharp reversal if profit-taking occurs. Although the Bitcoin Futures Advanced Sentiment Index recovered to 53.2%, reflecting growing risk appetite, the absence of sustained capital inflow and whale positioning toward short positions heightens the risk of a bull trap. Traders are advised to exercise caution.

ambcrypto04/09 13:01

Bitcoin holds $70K: Why ‘phantom leverage’ raises risk of a BTC reversal

ambcrypto04/09 13:01

Algorand: Why THIS signal points to another 10% ALGO drop

Algorand (ALGO) has declined by 10% in the past day, with technical analysis suggesting further downside. The price was rejected at the upper Bollinger Band, indicating overvaluation, and is now expected to move toward the middle band, implying a potential additional 10% drop. The strengthening downtrend is supported by a rising Average Directional Index (ADX). Futures market activity reinforces the bearish outlook, with over $6.5 million exiting ALGO perpetual contracts and a sharp drop in the Open Interest Weighted Funding Rate, signaling increased short positioning. However, spot investors are accumulating ALGO, with nearly $496,000 in inflows in the past day and $1.98 million over the week, which may cushion further declines or prompt a reversal if sustained.

ambcrypto04/09 12:14

Algorand: Why THIS signal points to another 10% ALGO drop

ambcrypto04/09 12:14

Avalanche – How tired buyers, active sellers are affecting AVAX’s weak rally

Avalanche (AVAX) experienced a 13.71% rally in under 18 hours on April 7, rising from $8.46 to $9.62, driven by significant spot volume and news of CME Group launching Avalanche Futures in May. Despite the price increase, Open Interest growth was modest, indicating low speculative interest, while Spot CVD showed stronger spot market belief. However, AVAX failed to break the $9.45-$9.60 supply zone due to seller dominance and buyer exhaustion. Technical indicators, including the CMF remaining below -0.05, suggest continued capital outflows and a bearish structure. The price is trading in a range between $8.56 and $9.46, with potential for a pullback to $9 or $8.3 rather than an immediate breakout above $9.6.

ambcrypto04/09 07:58

Avalanche – How tired buyers, active sellers are affecting AVAX’s weak rally

ambcrypto04/09 07:58

$950 Million Short, Two Perfect Timings: The Suspicion of Insider Trading in Crude Oil Before Trump's Ceasefire

On April 7, 2026, approximately three hours before former President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, an unusually large sell order of 8,600 crude oil futures contracts (worth $950 million) was executed during a low-liquidity trading window. This triggered a 15% drop in oil prices the next day. A nearly identical trading pattern occurred on March 22, just minutes before Trump delayed strikes on Iranian energy facilities. The trades, involving both Brent and WTI crude, displayed a repeated "signature" of 6,200 contracts, suggesting possible insider trading. In the March 22 incident, the oil short was accompanied by coordinated long positions in S&P 500 E-mini futures and additional WTI shorts, forming a paired trade betting on de-escalation. Similar suspicious activity was observed on the prediction market Polymarket, where newly created wallets placed large, winning bets on a ceasefire just before the announcement. U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres has called for an SEC and CFTC investigation. While federal agencies have recently reduced enforcement actions, the New York Attorney General is separately investigating using the state’s powerful Martin Act, which does not require proving intent to defraud.

marsbit04/09 06:23

$950 Million Short, Two Perfect Timings: The Suspicion of Insider Trading in Crude Oil Before Trump's Ceasefire

marsbit04/09 06:23

Everyone Is Waiting for the War to End, But Does the Oil Price Suggest a Long-Term Conflict?

This article argues that the market views oil price volatility as a consequence of the ongoing conflict, but the real insight is understanding how the war itself is being priced through oil. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, global crude supply is being restructured, with Asian buyers shifting to US oil, causing WTI to surpass Brent—a sign of structural changes in pricing and trade flows. While short-term price differences can be explained by contract timing, the deeper issue is a fundamental shift in who can supply oil. The market's key misjudgment is not on price, but on time. Futures curves still imply the conflict will end soon and supply will recover. However, the more likely path is a prolonged war of attrition. This means high oil prices are not a temporary shock but a new structural reality, with a range of $120-$150. In this framework, oil is no longer just a commodity but the "upstream variable" for all assets. Its repricing will ripple through interest rates, currencies, equity, and credit markets. The market has priced in the war's occurrence, but not its persistence. The analysis concludes that a prolonged conflict is the base case scenario, and any pullbacks in oil prices present an opportunity as the market has yet to fully price in a long-term disruption.

marsbit04/07 07:30

Everyone Is Waiting for the War to End, But Does the Oil Price Suggest a Long-Term Conflict?

marsbit04/07 07:30

Data Research: How Big Is the Liquidity Gap Between Hyperliquid and CME Crude Oil?

This analysis compares the liquidity and market structure of Hyperliquid's xyz:CL perpetual contract with CME's CLJ6 WTI crude oil futures. Key findings reveal Hyperliquid's absolute liquidity metrics are significantly lower than CME's, with its depth being less than 1% of CME's across various price points. The median trade size on Hyperliquid ($543) is 166 times smaller than on CME ($90,450), reflecting its crypto-native retail user base. While Hyperliquid exhibits high execution slippage for large orders (20x higher for a $1M order), its weekend trading activity shows a notable trend. Over three observed weekends, Hyperliquid's volume grew from $31M to over $1B, and its price discovery capability improved, closely aligning with CME's Monday opening prices by the third weekend. The increasing average trade size on weekends suggests growing use by traders seeking hedging exposure outside CME hours, not just speculators. The primary obstacle for Hyperliquid's expansion among institutional investors remains its high transaction costs for large orders. Without improving its capacity for institutional-sized trades, it risks remaining a supplementary weekend venue rather than a primary marketplace.

marsbit04/06 02:51

Data Research: How Big Is the Liquidity Gap Between Hyperliquid and CME Crude Oil?

marsbit04/06 02:51

Charles Schwab To Offer Direct Bitcoin, Ethereum Trading With ‘Schwab Crypto’ Account

Charles Schwab is preparing to launch "Schwab Crypto," a new service that will allow eligible clients to buy and sell Bitcoin and Ethereum directly through its platform. The offering will be rolled out in phases, starting with internal testing, then a small group of customers, before a broader release. It will not be available in New York or Louisiana, and not all applicants will qualify. The firm has not yet announced a specific launch date or final fee structure. This move marks Schwab's entry into direct cryptocurrency trading, whereas it previously only offered crypto exposure through products like ETFs, futures, and equities.

bitcoinist04/03 23:03

Charles Schwab To Offer Direct Bitcoin, Ethereum Trading With ‘Schwab Crypto’ Account

bitcoinist04/03 23:03

Bitcoin leads $400M liquidation wave as bulls get squeezed – When will it stop?

Crypto liquidations surged to over $456 million on April 2, with long positions accounting for $287 million and shorts making up $169 million. Bitcoin's drop below $66K contributed to the sell-off, while its funding rate briefly turned negative. BTC saw the highest liquidations at $57 million. Market sentiment shifted bearish after a brief bullish period in mid-March, as indicated by the Bitcoin Positioning Index falling below zero. Futures liquidations have been dominated by longs since October 2025, reflecting persistent bearish pressure. A reversal above zero in the positioning index, along with dominant short liquidations, would signal a bullish shift, but current conditions suggest further downside risk, possibly below $65K.

ambcrypto04/03 11:11

Bitcoin leads $400M liquidation wave as bulls get squeezed – When will it stop?