Bitcoin Rally May Have Ended, Beware of Adjustment Risks | Invited Analysis
BTC Rebound Likely Over, Correction Risk Ahead | Weekly Analysis by Conaldo
The three-week Bitcoin rebound shows signs of exhaustion, with weakening bullish momentum. The market faces key resistance levels, suggesting a potential short-term pullback to test lower supports, possibly initiating a second wave of decline.
Last week, three short positions were executed following a "sell the rally" strategy within the defined 94,200–83,500 USD range, yielding a total return of 6.15%. Key technical models (Momentum Quant + Spread Trading) identified precise entry and exit points near resistance.
Weekly and daily technical analysis indicates the market has turned bearish on higher timeframes. The momentum model shows signals of a bearish crossover forming on the daily chart, confirming the rebound is losing strength.
This week’s outlook is bearish-biased. If support at 87,500–89,000 USD fails, a move toward 80,000–83,500 is anticipated. Resistance is expected at 92,500–94,500 USD. Two short-term trading plans are proposed based on whether support holds or breaks.
Key macro events this week include Fed speeches and U.S. November CPI data. A lower CPI may support risk assets, while higher inflation could strengthen the dollar and pressure BTC.
Risk management is emphasized: set stop-losses immediately at entry, move to breakeven at +1% profit, and trail stops to lock in gains thereafter.
Disclaimer: Views are based on technical analysis and personal strategy, not investment advice. Trade with caution. DYOR.
Odaily星球日报12/15 05:33
