# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Prediction Markets

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Prediction Markets", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Polymarket rolls out new trading stack and stablecoin

Polymarket is upgrading its core exchange infrastructure and introducing a new platform-native stablecoin called Polymarket USD, backed 1:1 by USDC. The update includes a redesigned central limit order book (CLOB v2) with improved trade execution, simplified order structures, and better developer integration. Users will experience an automatic transition to the new stablecoin, though advanced traders must manually wrap existing USDC. This shift aims to enhance scalability and trading efficiency, coinciding with improved U.S. regulatory clarity for prediction markets under federal oversight.

ambcrypto19 ч. назад

Polymarket rolls out new trading stack and stablecoin

ambcrypto19 ч. назад

U.S. court backs Kalshi, reinforcing CFTC’s push for federal control over prediction markets

A U.S. federal appeals court has ruled in favor of prediction market platform Kalshi, reinforcing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) position that event-based contracts qualify as federally regulated derivatives, not gambling. The Third Circuit upheld an injunction blocking New Jersey from applying state gambling laws to Kalshi, affirming that such contracts fall under CFTC jurisdiction as "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act. This decision strengthens the CFTC's legal arguments against state-level crackdowns, supports the development of a unified national market, and may accelerate institutional adoption of prediction markets.

ambcrypto20 ч. назад

U.S. court backs Kalshi, reinforcing CFTC’s push for federal control over prediction markets

ambcrypto20 ч. назад

Crypto Prediction Markets Face Existential Threat — 3 States Move To Shut Traders Out

The U.S. federal government, through the CFTC and DOJ, is suing Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut to block their attempts to shut down crypto prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. The federal agencies argue they have exclusive jurisdiction to regulate these markets as derivatives, while the states classify them as illegal gambling. This legal clash represents a significant existential threat to the industry. A federal victory would centralize oversight under the CFTC, creating a single regulatory framework. If the states prevail, platforms would face a fragmented landscape of state gambling laws, potentially pushing markets offshore and increasing costs for traders.

bitcoinist04/03 19:32

Crypto Prediction Markets Face Existential Threat — 3 States Move To Shut Traders Out

bitcoinist04/03 19:32

Prediction Market Clash: CFTC Sues Three States To Claim Exclusive Control

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, including Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, to assert exclusive federal authority over prediction markets. The CFTC argues that event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket fall under its jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act, and that state-level regulations create a fragmented system that increases risks of fraud and market abuse. This legal action reflects growing tension between federal and state regulators. Meanwhile, Congress is considering legislation to ban prediction markets on sensitive topics like elections and wars, and the NFL has requested operators block certain sports-related event contracts. The CFTC has also initiated a rulemaking process to clarify and reinforce its regulatory role over these markets.

bitcoinist04/03 12:01

Prediction Market Clash: CFTC Sues Three States To Claim Exclusive Control

bitcoinist04/03 12:01

CFTC sues Illinois in case that could decide how prediction markets scale in the U.S.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has sued the State of Illinois, escalating a legal battle that could determine the regulatory future of prediction markets in the U.S. The lawsuit, filed on April 2, challenges Illinois' cease-and-desist orders against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which the state considers unlicensed sports betting. The CFTC argues these event contracts are swaps under federal jurisdiction, preempting state regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act and the Supremacy Clause. This case tests whether prediction markets will develop as a unified financial system under federal oversight or face a fragmented, state-by-state regulatory landscape that could hinder their growth and nationwide access. The outcome may define if these platforms become core financial infrastructure or remain constrained like state-regulated gambling.

ambcrypto04/02 19:02

CFTC sues Illinois in case that could decide how prediction markets scale in the U.S.

ambcrypto04/02 19:02

Prediction Market Giants Clash as Competition Between Kalshi and Polymarket Heats Up

The competition between US-based prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket has intensified, with both companies exchanging sharp public criticisms. Kalshi, which is regulated by the CFTC, launched an ad campaign in Washington, D.C., with slogans such as "We don’t do death markets," directly targeting Polymarket’s offshore operations and its controversial contracts related to military conflicts and sensitive events. Kalshi accused Polymarket of being "irresponsible, dangerous, and non-compliant," while Polymarket responded by calling for fact-based discussions and emphasizing its commitment to market integrity. The dispute highlights fundamental differences in their regulatory approaches and comes amid growing scrutiny over insider trading and ethical concerns in the prediction market industry, which has seen combined weekly volumes nearing $6 billion.

marsbit04/02 08:52

Prediction Market Giants Clash as Competition Between Kalshi and Polymarket Heats Up

marsbit04/02 08:52

Texas targets crypto, gambling loopholes amid prediction market concerns

Prediction markets have gained significant attention, particularly during the U.S. election cycle, but the rise of gambling within these markets has eroded public trust. In response, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is pushing for legislative changes to close gambling loopholes. He aims to prevent the exploitation of federal regulations, such as those of the CFTC, to bypass state gambling prohibitions. The goal is to ensure the integrity of elections and sports in Texas. Additionally, Patrick advocates for assessing the state’s approach to emerging financial technologies, including crypto, while prioritizing consumer protection and addressing issues like crypto ATM scams. The move coincides with a decline in public interest in prediction market gambling, as shown by Google Trends data.

ambcrypto04/01 17:28

Texas targets crypto, gambling loopholes amid prediction market concerns

ambcrypto04/01 17:28

CFTC warns on prediction market insider trading as volumes hit $75B in Q1

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has warned that insider trading laws apply to prediction markets, countering the belief that such activity operates in a regulatory gray area. A senior official stated the CFTC will aggressively pursue cases involving misuse of material non-public information, emphasizing that prediction market contracts fall under existing anti-fraud provisions. The regulator also highlighted exchanges' responsibilities to maintain surveillance systems and avoid listing easily manipulated contracts. This comes as prediction market trading volume surged to $75 billion in Q1 2026, up dramatically from $330 million in Q1 2024, driven by event-based trading on political, economic, and sports outcomes. The CFTC outlined enforcement priorities including insider trading, market manipulation, and retail fraud, while also introducing a new cooperation framework for self-reporting firms.

ambcrypto04/01 15:01

CFTC warns on prediction market insider trading as volumes hit $75B in Q1

ambcrypto04/01 15:01

Polymarket Smart Money Panorama: 26 Long-Term Trackable Addresses (Categorized by Sector)

This article profiles 26 high-performing "smart money" addresses on Polymarket, categorized by their expertise in five distinct prediction market sectors. The selection criteria focused on proven Profit and Loss (PNL), a diversified winning structure (not reliant on a single bet), and high transaction volume to distinguish informed speculation from arbitrage. The addresses are broken down as follows: * **Politics & Geopolitics (5 addresses):** Experts in long-cycle macro events like Fed rates, US elections, and Middle Eastern geopolitics. They often bet against consensus (NO) in low-probability markets, achieving high ROI. * **Weather (6 addresses):** Specialists in temperature prediction markets for specific cities. Strategies range from high-frequency, small bets across thousands of markets to focused, high-conviction wagers. * **Tech (5 addresses):** Focused on Big Tech and AI product timelines (e.g., Google, OpenAI). They typically target high-probability outcomes or use a high-volume, low-cost approach on undervalued options. * **Culture (5 addresses):** Experts in movie box office results and Twitter-related markets. Strategies include betting on high-probability outcomes or taking contrarian, high-odds positions in low-probability markets. * **Sports (5 addresses):** Specialists in specific leagues like UFC, Soccer, and Tennis. They excel at identifying mispriced odds, often in medium-probability markets, and hold positions until settlement. A key warning is emphasized: a trader's success is often not transferable across sectors. An expert in sports may perform poorly in politics. The article advises followers to only mirror trades within a trader's proven area of expertise to avoid losses from their cross-sector ventures. All addresses are for reference only and not financial advice, as prediction markets carry significant risk of capital loss.

marsbit03/31 10:50

Polymarket Smart Money Panorama: 26 Long-Term Trackable Addresses (Categorized by Sector)

marsbit03/31 10:50

Prediction Markets Hit Record Highs As Bets Explode On Global Conflict

Prediction markets are experiencing unprecedented growth, driven by automated AI agents and high-frequency trading bots that extracted approximately $40 million from market inefficiencies in a single month. These markets are increasingly dominated by bets on geopolitical events, such as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, and major political events like the 2028 US Presidential primary, rather than cryptocurrency prices. TRM Labs reported a 2,800% year-over-year increase, with March 2026 seeing 191 million transactions totaling nearly $24 billion. This surge has attracted regulatory scrutiny over potential insider trading, leading to bipartisan efforts to ban "casino-style" event contracts. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are implementing internal restrictions to preempt stricter regulations, as the industry balances its role as a forecasting tool with concerns over speculation on global conflicts.

bitcoinist03/31 02:31

Prediction Markets Hit Record Highs As Bets Explode On Global Conflict

bitcoinist03/31 02:31

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