# On-Chain Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "On-Chain", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Introducing: Market Compass

Glassnode introduces Market Compass, a dashboard providing a unified view of Bitcoin market conditions. It consolidates thousands of on-chain and market metrics into seven "lenses." Four forward-looking lenses (Macro, Capital Flows, Investor Behavior, On-Chain Fundamentals) feed a headline composite score from 0 (Risk-Off) to 100 (Risk-On). Three standalone lenses (Cycle Position, Derivatives, Cross-Asset Rotation) describe the current market structure. In the current reading, the headline score is 14/100 (Risk-Off), indicating a defensive regime. The Macro lens is the weakest at 23, constrained by a strong US Dollar (DXY) trading above its 200-day average. While the other forward-looking lenses show moderate improvement from recent lows, the overall picture suggests bottom-fishing within an unturned market cycle. Key observations include stablecoin supply shrinking (reduced buying power), long-term holders absorbing supply, tepid on-chain demand, and a derivatives market coiled for a potential move. The tool is designed as a contextual map, not a direct trading signal, synthesizing complex data into a single coherent read.

insights.glassnode06/18 18:33

Introducing: Market Compass

insights.glassnode06/18 18:33

Football Draw Harvests Whales: Extreme Profit-Loss Divergence on Polymarket's World Cup

A bettor known as "fishalive" made a stunning profit of nearly $9 million on the Polymarket prediction platform by correctly wagering against favorites during the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage. The account, registered just before the tournament, risked roughly $400,000 on two contracts for a Spain vs. Cape Verde match: one that Spain would *not* win, and another on a Cape Verde +2.5 goal handicap. The resulting 0-0 draw triggered both payouts. This single event, with a total market volume of $64 million, highlighted extreme profit-and-loss divergence. Other traders, like "betoor619" and "leeeeroyjenkins," lost millions by betting heavily on favorites Spain and Belgium to win outright—contracts that become worthless in a draw. The article explains that while markets heavily favored strong teams, the "team to win" contracts are binary and do not account for the common outcome of a draw. This creates high-risk, low-reward scenarios for favorite backers, while asymmetric profits flow to those betting on underdogs or against outright wins. The transparency of Polymarket's on-chain ledger publicly documents these massive wins and losses, driving mainstream media coverage. As the tournament progresses, the author suggests traders may shift towards hedging strategies that account for draws. The piece also notes growing regulatory scrutiny in the US and Europe, questioning whether such large-scale, anonymous sports prediction markets should be regulated as gambling or financial derivatives.

Foresight News06/18 06:02

Football Draw Harvests Whales: Extreme Profit-Loss Divergence on Polymarket's World Cup

Foresight News06/18 06:02

Data Decrypts the BTC Cycle: Three Major Bottom Signals Illuminate Simultaneously, Q4 Could Be a Crucial Turning Point Window?

"Decoding the Bitcoin Cycle: Three Bottom Signals Flash Simultaneously, Is Q4 the Key Turning Point?" The article analyzes Bitcoin's current market position, comparing it to historical cycles. BTC has corrected over 52% from its October 2025 peak of $126,198 to around $59,100 in June 2026. While significant, this drawdown is milder than the 77-86% declines seen in past bear markets. The analysis is framed within Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle. Past cycles show a pattern: prices peak 12-18 months post-halving, bottom 12-14 months after the peak, with lows typically occurring roughly 17 months before the next halving. Following the April 2024 halving and the October 2025 peak, this pattern suggests a potential bottoming window around Q4 2026, ahead of the expected 2028 halving. Three key on-chain metrics are signaling undervaluation: The MVRV Z-Score has dropped near 0.27, approaching historic bottom zones. The market price is only about 9% above the network's average realized price of ~$53,600, a rare low premium. Bitcoin's price recently touched its 200-week moving average (~$62,200), a level that aligned with bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2020. While US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record outflows in May/June 2026, indicating retail panic, whale addresses (holding 100+ BTC) reached a yearly high. Entities like MicroStrategy resumed buying, and long-term holders control a near-record 78% of the supply, suggesting accumulation. A major macro overhang was partially removed with a US-Iran ceasefire agreement in mid-June 2026, which eased oil prices and triggered a sharp BTC rally. However, persistent inflation means high-interest rates remain a constraint. The conclusion notes that genuine investment opportunities often arise when confidence is lowest, amidst narratives that "this time is different." While not guaranteeing an immediate bottom, the confluence of cycle timing, undervaluation signals, and shifting macro risks suggests late 2026 may be a critical period for reassessing risk/reward and patient accumulation for long-term believers.

marsbit06/16 02:58

Data Decrypts the BTC Cycle: Three Major Bottom Signals Illuminate Simultaneously, Q4 Could Be a Crucial Turning Point Window?

marsbit06/16 02:58

Bitcoin Puell Multiple Falls To 0.74 As Miner Revenue Slides

The Bitcoin Puell Multiple, an on-chain indicator that measures the ratio of daily miner revenue in USD to its 365-day moving average, has declined to a recent value of 0.74. This drop suggests that Bitcoin miners are currently earning less than 75% of their average income over the past year, primarily due to a bearish shift in the cryptocurrency's price. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to find market bottoms when miner stress is high, though the current Puell Multiple level remains above those seen at the lows of the last two major bear markets. This implies that further price declines could be necessary for a bottom to form, assuming past patterns repeat. The indicator also shows characteristic sharp drops coinciding with Bitcoin Halving events, which cut the block subsidy in half. Concurrently, Bitcoin's price has been trading sideways around $62,800.

bitcoinist06/12 12:49

Bitcoin Puell Multiple Falls To 0.74 As Miner Revenue Slides

bitcoinist06/12 12:49

BTC Market Pulse: Week 24

Bitcoin market sentiment remains cautious as sellers dominate activity across spot and derivatives markets. Increased spot volume reflects defensive selling rather than new demand, while futures open interest contracts and options skew indicates heightened demand for downside protection. U.S. spot ETF data shows surging volumes but persistently negative net flows, suggesting institutions are re-evaluating exposure. Despite this pressure, fundamental network metrics like active addresses show broadening engagement, and long-term holders continue to dominate supply, maintaining a resilient underlying structure. The market appears to be navigating a phase of capitulation, balancing short-term liquidation pressure against a stable long-term holder base.

insights.glassnode06/08 13:13

BTC Market Pulse: Week 24

insights.glassnode06/08 13:13

Has Bitcoin's 'Rebound Ended', Officially Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?

**Title: Has Bitcoin's Rebound Ended, Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?** **Summary:** Bitcoin's price has declined by 13% this week, signaling a potential return to late-stage bear market conditions. The price fell to around $67k, positioned between the Realized Price and Realized Cap Weighted Average. For the first time since early 2022, the Short-Term Holder cost basis has dropped below this key average, confirming a hallmark of late-cycle bear markets. Profitability metrics have collapsed sharply. The 7-day average of the Realized Profit/Loss ratio plummeted from a local high of 3.16 to 0.29, mirroring the February panic sell-off. Critically, the 90-day average never breached the threshold of 2, indicating the recent rally to $82k was a bear market bounce, not a structural shift. Realized losses surged to $1.35 billion daily, with $770 million coming from Long-Term Holders selling at a loss. This accelerating redistribution of supply from weak to strong hands is a necessary but ongoing process for a market bottom. The rally stalled almost precisely at the aggregate cost basis (~$83k) of US spot Bitcoin ETF investors, turning that level into strong resistance and leaving the average ETF holder underwater again. Spot market flows have turned decisively negative, showing sellers are dominating order books despite the price drop. While a significant futures long liquidation event cleared over $400 million in leverage, providing a potential reset, sustained spot demand is yet to materialize. Options markets continue to price in higher future volatility (Implied Volatility) than recent price action (Realized Volatility) has shown, with a persistent skew towards put options, indicating ongoing demand for downside protection. In conclusion, multiple metrics point to a fragile market structure. Resistance at the ETF cost basis, accelerating realized losses, dominant spot selling, and cautious options pricing all suggest the bear market trend persists. A sustainable recovery likely requires a resurgence of spot demand, ETF holders returning to profit, and a clear reduction in selling pressure.

marsbit06/05 11:07

Has Bitcoin's 'Rebound Ended', Officially Entering the Late Bear Market Phase?

marsbit06/05 11:07

BTC Market Pulse: Week 19

Bitcoin market analysis for Week 19 indicates a phase of consolidation and weakening near-term momentum. Overhead supply is capping price gains, evidenced by declines in price momentum, net buying pressure, and trading activity. Futures markets show increased speculative interest but also strong sell-side pressure. Options data reflects a cautious outlook with heightened perceived risk. Traditional finance signals are mixed: U.S. Spot ETFs saw significant net outflows and lower volume, suggesting softer institutional demand and potential profit-taking. However, on-chain activity shows a rise in daily active addresses, indicating steady user engagement. Overall, liquidity and positioning metrics point to a relatively stable market structure with easing bearish pressure, balancing weaker institutional flows with gradually improving sentiment.

insights.glassnode06/03 14:13

BTC Market Pulse: Week 19

insights.glassnode06/03 14:13

BTC Market Pulse: Week 22

Bitcoin experienced a week of consolidation and moderated activity. The price fell from around $79K to $74K before recovering to $77K, with overall momentum declining, reflecting softer price action. However, some metrics signaled a balancing sentiment: spot and perpetual Cumulative Volume Deltas increased, suggesting selling pressure may be easing. Trading activity cooled, with spot volume and futures open interest declining, pointing to reduced speculative appetite. Contrasting signals emerged in sentiment. Long-side funding payments surged significantly, indicating strong demand for bullish exposure. In options markets, there was slightly greater demand for downside protection. US spot ETF netflows improved, hinting at stabilizing capital flows, though trade volume fell. On-chain network activity showed minor reductions, hinting at a consolidation phase. Liquidity metrics suggested a more stable market with higher conviction among holders. However, profitability metrics flagged potential stress, with an increase in loss realization compared to profit-taking, indicating a cautious and potentially bearish undercurrent. In summary, the market displayed mixed signals: reduced volatility and speculative activity alongside a complex blend of stabilizing flows, cautious sentiment, and emerging but selective risk appetite.

insights.glassnode06/03 14:11

BTC Market Pulse: Week 22

insights.glassnode06/03 14:11

Bulls Approach the Ceiling

Bitcoin has surged to $81k, breaking above key on-chain resistance levels like the True Market Mean ($78.2k) and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis ($79.1k). The market is now targeting the next major hurdle at the Active Realized Price near $85.2k. On-chain metrics show profitability flipping positive, with the Net Realized Profit/Loss indicator turning constructive. However, the recovery faces headwinds from rising long-term holder profit-taking and still-elevated loss realization. Off-chain, ETF demand has rebounded, providing a tailwind, while perpetual futures funding rates remain negative, indicating persistent short pressure. Options markets show increased sensitivity with a large short gamma cluster around $82k, which could amplify price moves. The overall trend is constructive, but Bitcoin is approaching a significant supply zone where the market's ability to absorb selling pressure will be tested for a sustained breakout.

insights.glassnode06/03 13:58

Bulls Approach the Ceiling

insights.glassnode06/03 13:58

BTC Market Pulse: Week 21

Bitcoin's market structure shows signs of softening in Week 21, with weakening momentum and spot demand. Spot trading volume increased, but this was accompanied by a dramatic rise in selling pressure as indicated by a steep decline in Spot CVD. Futures market activity reflects caution, with decreased open interest yet a significant surge in demand for long positions. Concurrently, substantial sell-side pressure persists in perpetual contracts. Options traders are increasingly positioning for downside protection, evidenced by a sharp rise in the 25-Delta Skew, alongside growing open interest and volatility expectations. Traditional finance sentiment has softened, with weaker ETF netflows and falling MVRV, though ETF trade volume rose. On-chain metrics show mixed activity with declining active addresses but increased large-scale transfers. Overall, while long-term holder strength and stable liquidity provide resilience, the market exhibits fading euphoria, defensive positioning, and a prevailing shift toward bearish sentiment across spot, futures, and options segments.

insights.glassnode06/03 13:58

BTC Market Pulse: Week 21

insights.glassnode06/03 13:58

活动图片

Hot Categoriesright-arrow

Hot Tagsright-arrow

Bitcoinright-arrow

Industry Newsright-arrow