# Inflation Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Inflation", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

Kalshi Research's inaugural report demonstrates that prediction markets significantly outperform Wall Street consensus forecasts in predicting year-over-year CPI data, particularly during economic shocks. The study, analyzing data from February 2023 to mid-2025, shows Kalshi’s predictions had a 40.1% lower mean absolute error (MAE) than consensus forecasts overall. During major shocks (deviations >0.2 percentage points), Kalshi’s MAE was 50–60% lower, and for moderate shocks (0.1–0.2 points), it was 50–56.2% lower. When market predictions diverged from consensus by over 0.1 points, they correctly signaled a shock about 81% of the time and were more accurate in 75% of cases. The outperformance is attributed to diverse participant insights, direct financial incentives for accuracy, and efficient aggregation of dispersed information. These findings suggest prediction markets provide a valuable complementary signal, especially in volatile periods where traditional models often fail.

marsbit12/24 04:21

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

marsbit12/24 04:21

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

Kalshi Research's inaugural report demonstrates that prediction markets consistently outperform Wall Street consensus forecasts in predicting the U.S. year-over-year CPI inflation rate. The study, covering over 25 monthly CPI releases from February 2023 to mid-2025, shows Kalshi’s market-implied forecasts had a 40.1% lower mean absolute error (MAE) than consensus predictions across all environments. The advantage was most pronounced during economic "shocks." For large surprises (over 0.2 percentage points), Kalshi's forecasts were 50% more accurate a week before the data release, improving to 60% more accurate the day before. For medium surprises (0.1-0.2 percentage points), the advantage was similarly 50%, rising to 56.2% closer to the release. Crucially, a divergence of over 0.1 percentage points between the market forecast and consensus served as a strong signal, with an 81.2% probability that a shock would occur. When the two forecasts disagreed, the market prediction was more accurate 75% of the time. The report attributes this "Shock Alpha" to three factors: the "wisdom of crowds" aggregating diverse information, superior incentive structures that reward accuracy over conformity, and more efficient information synthesis, even with the same public data. This suggests prediction markets provide a valuable, differentiated signal for investors and policymakers, especially during periods of high uncertainty.

Odaily星球日报12/24 04:00

Kalshi's First Research Report Released: How Collective Intelligence Outperforms Wall Street Think Tanks in Predicting CPI

Odaily星球日报12/24 04:00

Bitcoin ‘never crossed’ $100K if adjusted for inflation, says Alex Thorn

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, states that Bitcoin never reached $100,000 when adjusted for inflation. Although BTC hit a nominal all-time high of over $126,000 in October, its inflation-adjusted peak in 2020 dollars was $99,848. This calculation accounts for the decline in the U.S. dollar's purchasing power, which has fallen approximately 20% since 2020, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI shows prices are now 1.25 times higher than in 2020. The report highlights the accelerated decline of the U.S. dollar in 2025, with the Dollar Currency Index (DXY) falling 11% this year, contributing to the popularity of the "debasement trade" where investors seek assets that retain value as fiat currency weakens.

cointelegraph12/24 03:38

Bitcoin ‘never crossed’ $100K if adjusted for inflation, says Alex Thorn

cointelegraph12/24 03:38

Crypto Morning Brief: Spot Gold Hits New High Again, Gnosis Hard Fork Recovers Hacked Balancer Funds

Cryptocurrency & Market Morning Brief: Spot gold hits a new all-time high, surpassing $4,500/oz. U.S. Treasury Secretary supports reconsidering the Fed's 2% inflation target. Russia plans to allow retail investors to trade cryptocurrencies under new regulations. Gnosis Chain executed a hard fork to recover $116M from the Balancer hack. a16z highlights privacy as a key competitive advantage in crypto. Wintermute reports Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance rising, with altcoins under pressure. A $50M virtual currency robbery occurred in Hong Kong. SOL treasury firm Upexi files to raise up to $1B. Former FTX US president raises $35M for his new venture. Other updates include ZKsync Era support ending on Etherscan and market analysis.

marsbit12/24 01:32

Crypto Morning Brief: Spot Gold Hits New High Again, Gnosis Hard Fork Recovers Hacked Balancer Funds

marsbit12/24 01:32

Crypto Morning Brief: Spot Gold Hits New High, Gnosis Hard Fork Recovers Balancer's Hacked Funds

Crypto Morning Brief: Spot gold hits a new all-time high, surpassing $4,500/oz. US Treasury Secretary supports reconsidering the Fed's 2% inflation target. Russia plans to allow retail investors to trade cryptocurrencies under new regulations. Gnosis Chain executed a hard fork to recover $116M from the Balancer hack. Etherscan will stop supporting ZKsync Era by January 2026. a16z highlights privacy as a key competitive advantage in crypto. Wintermute reports Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance rising, with altcoins under pressure. A $50M virtual currency robbery occurred in Hong Kong. Upexi, a SOL treasury firm, filed to raise up to $1B. Former FTX US president’s new venture raised $35M. Market trends show institutional interest in major cryptos, while altcoins face selling pressure.

深潮12/24 01:17

Crypto Morning Brief: Spot Gold Hits New High, Gnosis Hard Fork Recovers Balancer's Hacked Funds

深潮12/24 01:17

Macro Distortion, Liquidity Restructuring, and the Repricing of Real Returns

In an increasingly unreliable macroeconomic environment, this article examines the distortion of data, the resurgence of geopolitical risks, and the reevaluation of genuine yield sources. Key points include: - The unadjusted U.S. CPI for November came in at 2.7%, below expectations, but New York Fed President John Williams signaled caution, citing "technical factors" and the need for further validation. This reflects a broader loss of trust in macroeconomic data reliability. - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. pressure on Venezuela and potential Israeli strikes on Iran, are reintroducing inflation risks. These conflicts could disrupt oil supply chains and reignite global inflationary pressures. - In this context, the focus shifts from anticipating further rate cuts to identifying durable income sources: short-duration U.S. Treasuries, credit assets with clear cash flows, and structured trade or consumer finance assets. - R2 is positioned not as a predictive tool but as an adaptive system that offers transparent, verifiable yields from real-world assets—immune to policy shifts, liquidity illusions, and unexplained returns. The conclusion emphasizes building resilient income structures that remain valid across multiple macro scenarios, prioritizing clarity, sustainability, and risk-aware returns over speculative positioning.

marsbit12/23 13:57

Macro Distortion, Liquidity Restructuring, and the Repricing of Real Returns

marsbit12/23 13:57

Gold hits $4,420 ATH – What it means for Bitcoin’s long-term appeal

Gold reached a new all-time high of over $4,420 per ounce on December 22, 2025, driven by inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, and central bank demand. This surge renewed discussions about Bitcoin’s potential as a safe-haven asset. Reports that Kazakhstan may sell part of its gold reserves to invest up to $300 million in Bitcoin added momentum to this narrative. A sentiment poll showed 62.4% of respondents preferred Bitcoin over gold or silver for long-term investment. However, historical analysis indicates that gold’s new highs do not consistently trigger capital rotation into Bitcoin, as their movements are often correlated rather than inversely related. While sentiment and sovereign interest are growing, sustained capital flow from gold to Bitcoin remains unproven.

ambcrypto12/23 08:07

Gold hits $4,420 ATH – What it means for Bitcoin’s long-term appeal

ambcrypto12/23 08:07

Where Are Risk Assets Headed Amid the Bank of Japan's Gradual Hawkish Signals?

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19, 2025, marking its second hike since January and the highest rate since 1995. The unanimous decision was widely anticipated. Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the current rate remains below the neutral level and future adjustments will depend on economic data, wage growth, and inflation trends. Market reaction was muted: USD/JPY rose slightly to 156.06, the 30-year JGB yield edged up, the Nikkei 225 gained 1.5%, and Bitcoin surpassed $87,000. Strong core CPI growth of 3.0% in November and sustained wage increases supported the move. Analysts are divided on the timing of the next hike, with some expecting it in mid-2026. The end of ultra-loose policy may gradually reduce global yen carry trades, potentially increasing funding costs and pressuring risk assets like cryptocurrencies. While some fear a repeat of past post-hike crypto corrections (20-30% declines), others argue the hike was well-priced. The BOJ's planned ETF sales starting in early 2026 could further impact global liquidity.

marsbit12/22 01:33

Where Are Risk Assets Headed Amid the Bank of Japan's Gradual Hawkish Signals?

marsbit12/22 01:33

Sell Bitcoin for gold? Not so fast, one analyst says

Bitcoin advocate Matthew Kratter argues that Bitcoin (BTC) is a superior long-term store of value compared to gold, advising holders not to sell BTC for gold despite the latter's recent price surge. He highlights BTC’s advantages in scarcity, portability, verifiability, and divisibility, while criticizing gold’s steady annual supply growth of 1-2%, which leads to inflation over time. Kratter also points out gold’s practical limitations: high transport and insurance costs, difficulty in moving large quantities, and incompatibility with digital transactions. Tokenized gold products introduce counterparty risks such as over-issuance, refusal of redemption, or government confiscation. Despite ongoing debate between gold and Bitcoin proponents, Kratter asserts that gold cannot serve as a monetary base in a digital world.

cointelegraph12/20 20:17

Sell Bitcoin for gold? Not so fast, one analyst says

cointelegraph12/20 20:17

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