The Most Underrated Chapter in Dalio's 'Principles': On the Big Cycle, He Explained It Clearly Three Years Ago
The most underrated chapter in Ray Dalio's "Principles" explores the "Big Cycle" of investing, revealing a sobering historical pattern: 7 out of 10 major nations saw their wealth nearly wiped out at least once in the past century. Dalio argues that most investors fail to study these cycles, leading to a distorted perspective skewed by survivorship bias (e.g., focusing only on post-WWII US/UK success).
The chapter details how financial wealth (stocks, bonds) expands relative to tangible wealth during cycles of debt and credit growth, eventually leading to crises where promises exceed deliverable value. This results in debt defaults, market crashes, currency devaluation, and even wealth confiscation. Historical data from 1900 shows extreme volatility: many countries experienced decades of negative real returns, market closures, and high taxes.
Dalio emphasizes that investors’ biggest risks are not meeting return needs, portfolio destruction, and wealth confiscation—not just volatility. He warns that current conditions (near-zero real yields, high financial wealth vs. tangible wealth) mirror late-cycle stages where cash and bonds offer poor returns. The solution: diversify globally, understand cyclical drivers (growth, inflation, risk premiums), and avoid overexposure to any single environment or narrative.
marsbitYesterday 04:59
