# Cycle Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Cycle", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

The Bottom of the Cryptomarket in November? Fidelity Announces Possible End of Bear Cycle

Fidelity's analysis suggests that the current crypto bear market may be approaching its end, though they caution against expecting a precise bottom. Key points include: - **4-Year Cycles:** Historical Bitcoin cycles have seen bear market lows approximately every four years. Following the November 2022 low, the next could theoretically be around November 2026, but cycles are not exact timing tools. - **Volatility Signal:** After a low-volatility period from June to mid-August, Bitcoin and other major assets (Ethereum, Solana) saw sharp price increases in late August. Historically, bear markets have ended after such low volatility followed by a strong upward move, though this alone is not definitive. - **Resilient Fundamentals:** Despite weak prices for much of Q3, on-chain adoption metrics continued to grow. For example, stablecoin transaction volume in July surpassed Visa's by 2.3x, indicating sustained network utility and value. - **Market Sentiment:** The market's failure to decline in response to recent potential negative catalysts (like security incidents or regulatory delays) is seen as a possible sign it is near a bottom, searching for the next positive catalyst. Fidelity emphasizes that these are positive signals, not guarantees. Long-term holding has historically been more profitable than trying to time the market perfectly. Investors should continue monitoring volatility, adoption rates, and Bitcoin's ability to hold regained price levels.

cryptonews.ru09/04 08:16

The Bottom of the Cryptomarket in November? Fidelity Announces Possible End of Bear Cycle

cryptonews.ru09/04 08:16

Investigation into the Wave of Smartphone Price Increases: Storage Chips Reshape Industry Landscape

Chinese smartphone brands like Huawei, Xiaomi, and Honor have collectively raised prices for multiple models by up to 1000 yuan, citing rising costs for core components like storage chips as the primary driver. Offline stores implemented new prices hastily, with some relying on verbal updates. While online discussions surged, physical store traffic remained largely unaffected. The price hikes reflect broader industry shifts. The soaring cost of storage chips, driven partly by AI sector demand, has significantly increased the Bill of Materials (BOM) cost for smartphones, now accounting for over 20% of the total. This has led to a sharp contraction in the sub-1000 yuan budget phone segment, with major brands discontinuing such models. The chip price volatility has also impacted the secondary market in places like Shenzhen's Huaqiangbei. A lucrative business emerged of recycling scrapped phones to extract and resell memory chips, though this speculative activity has seen volatile "boom and bust" cycles as chip prices fluctuated. Industry analysts from IDC and Counterpoint note that prices for key components including memory, SoCs, PCBs, and MLCCs are rising. They predict continued price increases for new models and anticipate significant challenges for mid-to-low-end smartphones, especially those under 2000 yuan. Global smartphone shipments are projected to decline sharply in 2026 while average selling prices rise, signaling a new market phase defined by lower volume and higher prices.

marsbit09/04 08:01

Investigation into the Wave of Smartphone Price Increases: Storage Chips Reshape Industry Landscape

marsbit09/04 08:01

An Important Signal of Change in Bitcoin: Renowned Analyst Willy Woo Shares a New Scenario, Pointing to Prospects for the Next 6-8 Years!

After a recent pullback to $77,000, prominent blockchain analyst Willy Woo suggests Bitcoin's traditional four-year market cycle, driven by halving events, may be changing. Woo argues that as the annual new supply of Bitcoin relative to its total supply shrinks (potentially from ~0.8% to ~0.4%), the price impact of post-halving supply shocks will diminish. Consequently, future Bitcoin cycles could shift from the four-year halving schedule to longer 6-8 year cycles, aligning more with short-term debt cycles seen in traditional finance. The analyst's core thesis is that with waning supply-side influence, Bitcoin's price may become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic factors like liquidity conditions, interest rates, and credit cycles, playing a larger role in future market movements than the halving mechanism itself.

cryptonews.ru09/03 13:21

An Important Signal of Change in Bitcoin: Renowned Analyst Willy Woo Shares a New Scenario, Pointing to Prospects for the Next 6-8 Years!

cryptonews.ru09/03 13:21

NDV: Bitcoin, the Core Asset in an Era of Dollar Proliferation

**Summary:** The article argues that Bitcoin is the essential asset for navigating an era of unconstrained U.S. dollar debasement, driven by unsustainable American debt. The U.S. national debt, now exceeding $40 trillion and 123% of GDP, has entered a phase where its interest burden is mathematically unsustainable. With political constraints preventing real fiscal tightening, the only historical solution for a reserve currency nation is "financial repression"—suppressing real interest rates to slowly erode the debt's value through inflation. Gold has already demonstrated this playbook. Global central banks have made it their largest reserve asset, completing its transition from a peripheral hedge to a core holding. Bitcoin, operating on the same scarcity and monetary debasement thesis, lags significantly. Its market cap is only 5% of gold's, and its price relative to gold is at historical lows. However, the fundamental drivers are intensifying, institutional adoption channels (like U.S. spot ETFs) are now established, and major investors like Ray Dalio and Larry Fink acknowledge its role as a hedge against monetary instability. While short-term volatility is expected, the author posits that Bitcoin represents a generational opportunity akin to gold's repricing in the 1970s. The asymmetric bet lies in the vast gap between Bitcoin's current market size and the potential allocation from global institutional portfolios seeking protection from a deteriorating monetary system. The investment firm NDV presents its multi-year track record as validation of this thesis's investability.

marsbit09/03 11:21

NDV: Bitcoin, the Core Asset in an Era of Dollar Proliferation

marsbit09/03 11:21

Bitcoin Gains 25% in August, But the Real Battle is at $81,000

Bitcoin surged roughly 25% in August 2026, its strongest August since 2017, driven by three factors: the US Treasury’s decision to at least double its long-term bond repurchase operations (interpreted as a pro-liquidity signal), accelerated US crypto policy momentum, and a record ~$1.4B short squeeze. Technically, BTC has recovered above key long-term anchors like the 200-week moving average (~$65.5K) and is now testing a crucial resistance zone between $81K-$82K. A sustained weekly close above this level would signal a potential trend reversal, not just a bear market rally. Immediate support lies at $76K-$78K. Derivatives show positive but not overly crowded positioning, while ETF inflows of over $3.05B in August suggest underlying spot demand. The rally has also broadened, with ETH/BTC reclaiming 0.03 and SOL breaking out from consolidation. Key factors for September include: whether Bitcoin holds the $76K-$78K support; the persistence of ETF inflows amid profit-taking; the Federal Reserve's policy stance versus Treasury actions; the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act (low passage odds priced in); and signs of continued fundamental strength in networks like Ethereum and Solana. The report frames two scenarios: a bullish one where catalysts align for a breakout above $82K, and a bearish one where momentum stalls, potentially testing support down to $60K. Crucially, even a bearish pullback is viewed as a late-cycle dip worth buying, given that the market is deep within the historical window for Bitcoin bear market bottoms. The key takeaway is to view any future weakness as a buying opportunity within the cycle's final stages.

marsbit09/02 08:32

Bitcoin Gains 25% in August, But the Real Battle is at $81,000

marsbit09/02 08:32

Meme from a Macro-Cycle Perspective: Similarities and Differences with Previous Rounds

From a macro-cycle perspective on meme coins, this article analyzes their evolving role across three crypto bull markets (2016-2018, 2020-2022, 2023-2025). It observes that meme presence and influence have grown significantly, becoming a central narrative in the most recent cycle. The author posits a binary classification for crypto assets: 'business/production' assets (valued for fundamentals like PMF, revenue) and 'meme' assets (valued primarily for social consensus and narrative strength). The core thesis is that the prominence of memes in any cycle is inversely related to the supply and quality of compelling business-model narratives; when the latter is weak, speculative capital flows into meme assets. The current cycle is seen as similar to the last, with a continued scarcity of strong business narratives (e.g., RWA). However, new challenges exist: a highly industrialized, near-infinite supply of new meme coins and a more fragile, short-term oriented investor base from previous cycles, making consistent outperformance harder. A new 'stock meme' narrative on Robinhood (e.g., AI/Artificial Inu paired with NVDA stock) is examined but deemed fragile due to reliance on temporary arbitrage inefficiencies. Finally, the article outlines the profile of a successful meme speculator: high energy, narrative sensitivity, constant on-chain engagement, part of a tight-knit information circle, and a systematic, adaptable framework. It contrasts this with a value investor's temperament, concluding that success in either field requires playing to one's innate strengths and avoiding incompatible strategies.

marsbit09/02 08:26

Meme from a Macro-Cycle Perspective: Similarities and Differences with Previous Rounds

marsbit09/02 08:26

Dialogue with Epoch Ventures Founder: Large-Scale Capital Rotation Has Begun, the Four-Year Cycle Has Ended

Epoch Ventures founder Eric Yakes discusses why Bitcoin's traditional four-year boom-bust cycle may be ending. He argues that Bitcoin, with recent drawdowns limited to around 50% instead of 80%, is transitioning from a high-risk asset to a hedge against currency debasement due to institutional inflows and lower volatility. This shift allows for higher portfolio allocations and disconnects Bitcoin from general risk assets. Yakes outlines Bitcoin's path to global adoption through three monetary functions: store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account. He believes Bitcoin is currently in the store-of-value phase. A massive capital rotation from gold into Bitcoin is imminent once Bitcoin achieves deeper liquidity, potentially seeing prices rise tenfold. A key mechanism for this transition involves stablecoins. Yakes posits that the U.S. Treasury, facing a debt spiral, will promote stablecoin adoption to create demand for U.S. Treasuries. As stablecoins grow, they will increasingly hold Bitcoin in their reserves to differentiate themselves, leading to a "Bitcoinization" of stablecoins. This sets the stage for "hyperbitcoinization" as fiat currencies become obsolete. Addressing concerns about centralization from ETFs and custodians, Yakes argues Bitcoin's easy self-custody creates a powerful exit threat that deters malicious control. Wealth concentration among early holders is seen as a natural, temporary phase in an emerging economy. Finally, Yakes explains his firm's investment focus: building Bitcoin-compatible financial infrastructure, particularly Bitcoin-backed lending, to bridge traditional finance with the Bitcoin ecosystem.

marsbit08/29 07:46

Dialogue with Epoch Ventures Founder: Large-Scale Capital Rotation Has Begun, the Four-Year Cycle Has Ended

marsbit08/29 07:46

Despite Recent Bitcoin Rise, One Analyst Remains Cautious: 'I Haven't Seen What I Wanted Yet'

Despite Bitcoin's recent rally reigniting bullish sentiment, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson advises caution based on blockchain data analysis. He highlights the MVRV Z-Score indicator, used to measure investor behavior and market value cycles, suggesting Bitcoin's cycle low may not be in yet. Drawing parallels to the 2017-2018 cycle, Wedson notes that after its 2017 peak, Bitcoin experienced another sharp drop in November 2018. Similarly, in the current 2024-2025 period, the MVRV Z-Score has formed three peaks but has recently risen again alongside price. The key risk, according to Wedson, is that the indicator has not yet entered negative territory, historically associated with major cycle bottoms. He states that purely from on-chain data, there isn't enough evidence to confirm the recent low as the final bottom. If historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin could potentially fall to at least $53,000 or lower. Wedson clarifies this is data analysis, not financial advice, and emphasizes that on-chain metrics currently indicate downside risks remain, rather than conclusively signaling a market bottom.

cryptonews.ru08/29 06:36

Despite Recent Bitcoin Rise, One Analyst Remains Cautious: 'I Haven't Seen What I Wanted Yet'

cryptonews.ru08/29 06:36

Strive Executive: Rethinking the Bitcoin Price Flywheel

"Strive Executive: Rethinking Bitcoin's Price Flywheel" Bitcoin's maturation process may not follow a simple trend of ever-shrinking returns, as suggested by its long-term power-law trajectory. Instead, a multi-stage "flywheel" effect could emerge, driven by falling volatility. In its early stages, Bitcoin exhibited extreme returns and high volatility, limiting large-scale investment and its use as collateral. As it matures (Stage 2), both returns and volatility decline, improving its risk-adjusted returns. While this seems to point toward diminishing gains, it crucially enhances Bitcoin's appeal to institutional capital and its quality as collateral for loans. Lower volatility allows existing investors to allocate more capital without increasing portfolio risk. More importantly, it significantly increases the amount of debt the system can safely issue against Bitcoin holdings. With shallower potential drawdowns, lenders can extend more credit against the same collateral value, making leveraged Bitcoin accumulation strategies more feasible and resilient. This sets the stage for Stage 3: a self-reinforcing cycle. Improved fundamentals attract more equity capital. Simultaneously, Bitcoin's enhanced collateral status enables the expansion of dollar-denominated credit (e.g., bank loans, bonds) used to acquire more Bitcoin. Fixed Bitcoin supply meets growing demand from both equity and newly created debt, potentially reigniting price acceleration. Thus, the very process of maturation—declining volatility—creates the conditions for a capital and credit flywheel. This could push Bitcoin's USD price to break above its historical power-law trend, analogous to the final, rapid failure stage in a metal fatigue curve where the stressed "material" is the fiat credit system itself.

marsbit08/29 05:26

Strive Executive: Rethinking the Bitcoin Price Flywheel

marsbit08/29 05:26

The Most Difficult Thing Here Is to Buy. What Bitcoin Needs for Growth

The article discusses the recent 25% surge in Bitcoin's price from mid-August, pushing it back to around $80,000. However, analysts from Galaxy Research suggest that for this to confirm a definitive trend reversal from a bear market, Bitcoin needs to sustainably break above a key technical level: the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), located slightly above $81,000. Historically, this level has acted as significant resistance, often taking weeks to overcome decisively. Experts note that the 50-week SMA is a widely followed indicator, making it a self-fulfilling prophecy for support and resistance. While the current upward move is seen as a strong breakout, the path forward may not be straightforward. Analysts point to historical patterns where Bitcoin traded near this average for weeks or even months after an initial break. The macroeconomic backdrop is mixed, with the US Federal Reserve yet to cut interest rates and the US Treasury's plans to increase debt buybacks adding to market uncertainty. High long-term bond yields are also putting pressure on riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Some experts caution that the recent sharp rally was partly driven by technical factors like high trader leverage, and sustained growth will likely depend on continued institutional demand through Bitcoin ETFs. The consensus is that while a cycle bottom may be in, navigating the volatility and potential resistance on the way to higher prices, such as $100,000, remains challenging.

cryptonews.ru08/25 16:42

The Most Difficult Thing Here Is to Buy. What Bitcoin Needs for Growth