# Cycle Articoli collegati

Il Centro Notizie HTX fornisce gli articoli più recenti e le analisi più approfondite su "Cycle", coprendo tendenze di mercato, aggiornamenti sui progetti, sviluppi tecnologici e politiche normative nel settore crypto.

Will Changxin Technology Continue to Rise Today?

Changxin Technology made a historic debut on the stock market, with its share price soaring 465.82% to close at 49 yuan. Its market capitalization reached 3.28 trillion yuan, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to become the largest company by market cap on the A-share market. Daily trading volume exceeded 140 billion yuan, a first in A-share history. This created a moment of realization for 7.7 million investors who won the lottery for its shares. On the first day, investor strategies varied: some sold immediately and later regretted missing intraday highs, others secured profits to avoid future volatility, while a third group held or even bought more shares, betting on long-term growth. The staggering IPO, massive public enthusiasm, and debut during a peak industry cycle led some to compare Changxin to PetroChina's 2007 listing, which was followed by a long decline. Key similarities noted include comparable fundraising scales (approx. 666 billion yuan for Changxin vs. 668 billion for PetroChina) and both companies listing at a perceived high point in their respective commodity cycles (oil then, memory chips now). However, analysts caution against over-simplifying the comparison. They highlight core differences: Changxin operates in the high-growth semiconductor sector with strong "domestic substitution" tailwinds. Brokerages like Huaxi Securities project significant revenue and profit growth from 2026 to 2028, driven by DDR5 adoption, product mix optimization, and economies of scale. Nomura Securities issued a "buy" rating with a 116 yuan target price, citing AI-driven demand for DRAM, tight supply as major players shift to HBM production, and Changxin's vast room for market share growth. Some analysts position the current memory cycle, fueled by AI, as just beginning, contrasting with the mature energy cycle PetroChina entered. The article concludes that for investors, monitoring the memory cycle's progression and Changxin's breakthroughs in high-end technologies like HBM will be crucial, rather than relying on superficial historical parallels.

marsbit23 h fa

Will Changxin Technology Continue to Rise Today?

marsbit23 h fa

Five Historical Indicators Light Up Simultaneously, Bitcoin Bear Market Hits Bottom

Multiple historical indicators are converging to suggest that Bitcoin may be approaching or has reached a long-term cycle bottom. Currently trading approximately 50% below its all-time high, Bitcoin's bear market has persisted for over 40 weeks. Several key metrics point towards a potential low: the Nasdaq/Bitcoin and Gold/Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings are at historically extreme oversold (for Bitcoin) levels, which have previously signaled significant long-term outperformance in subsequent 1-3 year periods. Furthermore, Bitcoin's spot price is currently around 18% below its Realized Price (on-chain cost basis of $53k), a condition that has historically marked the final stages of bear markets and preceded substantial future returns. Analysis of past cycles indicates that price lows typically occur around 60 weeks after the previous peak, suggesting a potential low could form by late November 2026. Combined, these signals—though based on a limited historical sample and subject to structural market changes—indicate the period from now through late 2026 could present an attractive long-term accumulation opportunity for Bitcoin, with an asymmetrically positive return profile projected for the 2027-2028 timeframe.

Odaily星球日报Ieri 12:24

Five Historical Indicators Light Up Simultaneously, Bitcoin Bear Market Hits Bottom

Odaily星球日报Ieri 12:24

Is Bitcoin nearing another accumulation zone? THIS signal says yes

Bitcoin has experienced an extended period of underperformance, diverging from the equities market. However, a long-term correlation with Apple (AAPL) stock may signal a potential turning point. Analysis of the Bitcoin-AAPL ratio shows it has traded within a well-defined ascending channel since 2017, with the lower boundary historically marking Bitcoin undervaluation. The ratio is now approaching this support line, suggesting Bitcoin could be entering another accumulation zone, similar to periods preceding past major rallies. While Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 broke in 2025 due to macro shocks, the longer-term AAPL relationship remains intact. For confirmation, on-chain data shows recent stablecoin inflows are still modest compared to recent outflows, indicating the market may need more capital rotation before a sustained uptrend.

ambcrypto07/24 08:23

Is Bitcoin nearing another accumulation zone? THIS signal says yes

ambcrypto07/24 08:23

The Perfect Founder-Market Fit: Bear Markets Are the Ultimate Test

"Founder-Market Fit in a Bear Market: The Ultimate Test" While AI captures the vast majority of venture capital and attention, the current crypto bear market is revealing the strongest cohort of founders in four cycles. These operators, hailing from institutions like Goldman Sachs, Citadel, and Stripe, are not chasing narratives. They are converging on the now-compelling "hard problem" of institutional-grade financial infrastructure. Founder-market fit—the alignment between a specific founder's unique capabilities and a specific market's needs—is the most durable signal in venture. Products, markets, and regulations change, but this fit compounds even when prices don't. The bear market is the best environment to identify it. Talent is now concentrated on two serious verticals: AI and fintech. The quality of founders choosing blockchain for finance is unprecedented. Evidence is in who's building: founders from elite traditional finance backgrounds are tackling on-chain institutional infrastructure (e.g., Ondo's Nathan Allman, Offchain Labs' Ed Felten). Market data supports this shift, with tokenized real-world assets and stablecoins growing significantly and major banks launching products. The author evaluates founders on four traits: 1) Deep domain expertise (lived experience, not just theory), 2) High agency (ability to sell a vision based on deep market understanding), 3) Unfair network advantage (relationships that accelerate execution), and 4) Obsession (long-term commitment rooted in belief, not hype). In a bull market, momentum does the work. A bear market strips that away, leaving only belief—the observable output of true founder-market fit—as fuel. This period filters out tourists, leaving builders who see the long-term opportunity. For serious operators considering the space, the bear market is not a risk but a proving ground and the cleanest environment to build compounding advantage. The commitment is to back such founders at the intersection of market and conviction, as in every prior cycle.

marsbit07/24 07:35

The Perfect Founder-Market Fit: Bear Markets Are the Ultimate Test

marsbit07/24 07:35

Five Historic Indicators Simultaneously Flash Signals: Bitcoin Bear Market Bottoms Out

Title: "Five Major Historical Indicators Simultaneously Flash, Bitcoin Bear Market Hits Bottom" Bitcoin is currently down 50% from its all-time high, with the bear market persisting over 40 weeks. A set of long-term cyclical indicators suggests the market may be at or nearing a price and time-cycle low point. Key Indicators: 1. Nasdaq/BTC Relative Strength: The 14-week moving average of the Nasdaq 100/BTC ratio's RSI has reached a historically unprecedented overbought level of 72.6, indicating Bitcoin is extremely oversold relative to equities. Historically, such extremes have preceded major cycle lows and strong outperformance by Bitcoin over the next 1-3 years. 2. Long-Term Expected Returns: Past instances of extreme Nasdaq/BTC RSI readings have been followed by asymmetric positive returns for Bitcoin over a 1-3 year horizon, though the magnitude of gains has diminished each cycle. 3. Gold/BTC Relative Strength: A similar RSI indicator for the Gold/BTC ratio also hit a record high in February 2026, another signal aligning with historical cycle lows for Bitcoin. 4. Bitcoin Realized Price: The on-chain realized price (average cost basis) is currently $53,000, 18% above the spot price. Historically, Bitcoin's spot price has spent only 12% of its time below this level, and every past bear market bottom has occurred below the realized price. 5. Cycle Clock: Previous cycles saw price lows form around 60 weeks after the all-time high. The current cycle is at week 40. If this pattern holds, a low point could form around late November 2026. Conclusion: The convergence of these rare, extreme signals points to Bitcoin being at or very near a long-term cyclical bottom, likely forming before the end of 2026. This period may present a highly attractive opportunity for long-term accumulation, with an asymmetric return profile favoring significant upside over the next 1-3 years, despite noted risks like diminishing marginal returns, small sample size, and potential structural market changes.

marsbit07/24 07:13

Five Historic Indicators Simultaneously Flash Signals: Bitcoin Bear Market Bottoms Out

marsbit07/24 07:13

New Fire Group Chief Economist Fu Peng's Latest Speech: Crypto Assets Deeply Bound to Liquidity, Global Assets 'Shrink Circle' with Widening Divergence

The chief economist of Sinovation Group delivered a speech at Wiki Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2026, analyzing the global market through the lens of liquidity. He argues that all major assets, including cryptocurrencies, are fundamentally tied to global liquidity, which is now shifting from an era of extreme post-2008 ease to sustained tightening under new Fed leadership. This marks the end of widespread "asset flooding" and ushers in a "shrinking circle" dynamic: capital is abandoning speculative, low-quality assets and concentrating in a few high-conviction, value-driven core holdings. The only dominant global investment theme is AI, viewed as a 20-25 year productivity cycle. However, a critical inflection point has been reached in Q2, where major tech firms' free cash flow has turned negative. The market narrative has pivoted from rewarding pure capital expenditure growth to demanding proof of future revenue generation and returns. While the AI super-cycle's long-term thesis remains intact, the initial hardware-driven phase (e.g., Nvidia, memory chips) is maturing. The speaker warns of significant volatility risk not from industry fundamentals, but from excessive financial leverage built up in these "certain" assets. He emphasizes that investment strategy must evolve from broad diversification to focused, cyclical allocation within the AI value chain (upstream hardware, midstream, downstream applications), avoiding blind long-term holds on single names. For crypto, this liquidity paradigm shift means the era of speculative "air coin" mania is over; the market is maturing, with institutional participation increasing and volatility stabilizing for core assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The core takeaway is that understanding the top-down liquidity framework is essential for navigating the current era of market分化 and focused capital allocation.

链捕手07/24 06:31

New Fire Group Chief Economist Fu Peng's Latest Speech: Crypto Assets Deeply Bound to Liquidity, Global Assets 'Shrink Circle' with Widening Divergence

链捕手07/24 06:31

Bernstein Analysis: Can the $142 Billion Long-Term Order Hold Up the Memory Cycle?

Bernstein revisits long-term agreements (LTAs) in the memory industry, highlighting new contracts with purchase commitments, minimum prices, and financial guarantees signed by Micron and SanDisk. These aim to provide an earnings floor for the coming years. Micron has 16 strategic customer agreements, with 14 representing approximately $100 billion in minimum revenue and about $22 billion in cash deposits/commitments. SanDisk has contracts for around $42 billion in minimum revenue and over $11 billion in guarantees. Combined, these ~$33 billion in guarantees make it more costly for major clients to walk away. However, Bernstein models that the potential revenue needing protection over 3-5 years is around $5.2 trillion. The existing guarantees thus cover only about 0.6% of that scale. While LTAs provide a cushion, they cannot fully shield profits in a severe downturn, as clients may still find it cheaper to breach contracts if spot prices fall deeply below floor prices. LTAs are most suitable for large, credit-worthy customers like U.S. cloud service providers with stable, high-volume AI infrastructure needs. Consumer segments (phones, PCs) and some Chinese clients are less likely to adopt them, leaving an estimated 30-50% of the DRAM/NAND market exposed to spot price volatility. AI demand (e.g., HBM for training, storage for inference) supports higher valuations and makes LTAs more attractive for locking in high-demand customers. Yet, Bernstein stresses that LTAs soften, but do not eliminate, the memory cycle. Their true test will come in the next downturn, revealing whether clients honor contracts and whether guarantees provide sufficient pain to maintain supplier discipline.

marsbit07/21 07:32

Bernstein Analysis: Can the $142 Billion Long-Term Order Hold Up the Memory Cycle?

marsbit07/21 07:32

How Long Will the Storage Boom Last?

Title: "How Long Can the Memory Boom Last?" (Author: Takashi Yunoue) Summary: The semiconductor industry, especially the memory market, is experiencing an unprecedented, explosive boom. Data (WSTS, 1991-2026) shows that while other categories like micros, logic, and analog grew steadily, memory shipments, particularly DRAM and NAND flash, have seen a near-vertical spike since 2024. Monthly memory shipments surged from ~$5.6B in 2016 to ~$63.3B in 2026, an 11x increase, with year-on-year growth reaching a staggering 285%. This dwarfs the previous peak of ~60% during the 2017-2018 memory bubble. The primary driver is not volume but a ~10x price surge for both DRAM and NAND, fueled by insatiable demand from AI data centers. Hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are making massive capital investments (projected at $755B in 2026, ~36x growth since 2015), creating a "black hole" that absorbs GPUs, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), and high-performance storage. This has diverted production capacity, causing severe shortages and price hikes for memory in consumer electronics (PCs, smartphones). While forecasts now predict the global semiconductor market will hit $1.5 trillion in 2026 and memory alone may surpass $1 trillion by 2027, the author warns this boom is unsustainable. Historical analysis of memory market growth rates over 35 years shows that periods of sustained annual growth have never exceeded five consecutive years, inevitably followed by a downturn due to the "silicon cycle" (demand surge → price rise → overinvestment → oversupply → price crash). Given the current boom started from a low in 2023/2024, a peak is expected by 2027-2028 at the latest. Furthermore, a fundamental rule applies: "The higher the peak, the deeper the valley." The unprecedented 285% growth peak suggests the subsequent recession could be the most severe in industry history. The author cautions that the current soaring stock prices and wealth creation in the memory sector are based on inflated expectations and urges companies to use this prosperous period to prepare practically for the inevitable downturn.

marsbit07/14 21:20

How Long Will the Storage Boom Last?

marsbit07/14 21:20

The Signal That Has Appeared Before Every BTC Bottom Since 2014, It Was Close This Time

A valuation model tracking Bitcoin for 12 years has been updated. The new model shows a current score of 24.3, placing BTC in the historical bottom 20% range. However, analysis reveals that since 2014, every Bitcoin bear market bottom has seen this score drop *below 20* for a sustained period before turning around. The current cycle's low so far was 21.5 on July 1st. The author explains the model was rebuilt to address a flaw in its historical baseline, making it a more accurate "map" of current value. Two interpretations are offered: either the historically definitive washout has not yet occurred, or this cycle's bottom will be shallower, as each cycle has been less volatile than the last. The author's action plan involves automated buying triggered at specific score levels. A purchase was made at the cycle's cheapest reading (21.5), with more capital allocated for a potential drop below 20. The strategy emphasizes following a pre-written plan over emotion. Additional market context is provided: Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-week moving average, the BTC/Gold ratio is at a 3-year low showing capital preference for gold, and Bitcoin dominance remains high at 59%, indicating no "altcoin season." The summary concludes by noting the model's inconvenient implication—the market looks less like a bottom now—and poses a question to readers: at what score would they deploy their final capital?

marsbit07/13 04:38

The Signal That Has Appeared Before Every BTC Bottom Since 2014, It Was Close This Time

marsbit07/13 04:38

Bitcoin’s ‘next major buying opportunity’ forms in Q4 – Former NASA researcher explains why!

Bitcoin's price rose 2.32% to $64,380.20, yet failed to breach the $80k resistance level from mid-May. While technical indicators like RSI and MACD suggest continued bullish momentum, on-chain data from CryptoQuant reveals a mixed picture. The market appears to be in a transitional phase, with U.S. investor caution evident through $10 billion in ETF outflows since October 2025 and a persistently negative Coinbase Premium. However, new large investors (whales) are accumulating BTC, absorbing selling pressure and potentially preventing steeper declines. Analyst Benjamin Cowen and others remain optimistic, pointing to historical cycles. One analyst cites a 4-year cycle model, suggesting Q4 2026 could present the next major buying opportunity, with significant potential gains in 2027. Another analyst, Adam Livingston, notes Bitcoin is currently trading only 19.2% above its realized price—well below the historical average premium of 81.9%—and that similar past valuations have led to substantial medium-term returns. Overall, despite weak short-term sentiment and a lack of new capital inflows, the community anticipates a strong future trajectory for Bitcoin based on cyclical patterns and current undervaluation.

ambcrypto07/10 20:02

Bitcoin’s ‘next major buying opportunity’ forms in Q4 – Former NASA researcher explains why!

ambcrypto07/10 20:02

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