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On Sunday, December 28, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $88,000, approximately 1% lower than at the end of last week. Specialists have analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for Bitcoin's price movement in the coming days.
"The Probability of a Correction Remains"
Financial Analyst at BitRiver, Vladislav Antonov
Despite the positive backdrop, BTC has been unable to overcome the psychological barrier of $90,000 and hold above it. Traditional markets, on the contrary, have shown confident dynamics: the S&P 500 and other major American indices continue to hover near historical highs, while gold on the same day updated its record to $4,550 per troy ounce.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been moving within a fairly wide range from $80,600 to $94,600 since November 21, within which two key levels stand out: support near $83,600 and resistance around $90,660. A particularly dense cluster of options is located precisely in the $85,000–$90,000 zone, which explains the increased volatility and the instability of breakouts. Under such conditions, price behavior appears unpredictable: with weak spot demand and no new money, the market tends to collect liquidity through sharp downward movements to trigger stop-losses.
Last week, it became clear that Bitcoin is ending 2025 very differently from how it started: instead of triumph, it is cautiously balancing around the $88,000 mark. At the start of the year, the market was jubilant; the arrival of the Donald Trump administration, which promised to turn the U.S. into the global crypto capital, provided a powerful impulse. BTC confidently marched toward new heights, and Bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization reached 57%. However, the picture changed dramatically in the fourth quarter: for the first time, Bitcoin lagged behind traditional markets, while expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for 2026 shifted.
Positive factors for the crypto industry as a whole remain: the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump continues to pursue a friendly regulatory policy; in 2025, the volume of transactions in the crypto industry grew almost fourfold; investigations into a number of crypto companies were terminated; a presidential order on stablecoin regulation was signed; and 11 crypto firms successfully conducted IPOs.
Nevertheless, in the short term, the bearish backdrop persists: weak institutional demand through ETFs, negative on-chain metrics, and pressure on large corporate holders create significant obstacles to growth.
The medium-term picture remains constructive; the main triggers for the next wave of growth are the resumption of sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, progress in U.S. crypto market regulation (including legislative initiatives at the federal level), and a shift in the overall economic backdrop, especially after a potential change in Fed leadership and the start of a new rate-cutting cycle.
In the short term, risks remain high: the probability of a Bitcoin correction to the $70,000–$75,000 zone persists, especially if the December lull turns into a January liquidation vacuum. The only scenario in which these risks sharply decrease is a confident breakout above $90,600 followed by a consolidation of the price above $94,600, which would signal the return of buyer interest and the restart of the bullish momentum.
For the week of December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, it is difficult to make forecasts, as many market participants will be on holiday, and accordingly, the risks of manipulation increase. Looking at last year, fluctuations over the 10-day period were within 10%: initially, Bitcoin strengthened, then gave up all gains, and more confident growth began on Monday, January 13, with a 22% increase. Buyers need to break above $94,600 as quickly as possible; otherwise, sellers will push the price lower.
Key events for the upcoming week will be the publication of the Fed minutes on Tuesday, December 30, and labor market and business activity data, which will be released on Wednesday and Friday. On Tuesday, market attention will be focused on the FOMC meeting minutes; this document may provide additional clarification on the Fed's future monetary policy, which is particularly important in light of recent interest rate decisions. Any signals of potential policy tightening or easing could impact the dollar and stock indices. On Wednesday, December 31, initial jobless claims data will be released, with a forecast of 214,000, which will help assess the current state of the labor market. On Friday, January 2, the PMI manufacturing index will be published, with a forecast of 51.8. Against the backdrop of New Year holidays, trading will be less active, but the publication of the Fed minutes and labor market data could cause short-term volatility; signals of potential Fed policy easing would support stock indices and the crypto market.
"A Portfolio Reshuffling is Underway"
Lead Analyst at Bitget Research, Ryan Lee
Uncertainty and fatigue—this is how the current state of the crypto market can be described. The economic picture is blurred, prospects are unclear, and geopolitics and inflation continue to weigh on investor expectations, preventing the formation of a confident scenario.
Bitcoin ended the past week down less than 1%. BTC attempted several times to break out of the current range and consolidate above $90,000, but each time it failed to overcome resistance and fell back to $87,000–$88,000. Throughout the past week, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded capital outflows, but without panic capital flight—from $83 million on December 26 to $186 million on December 23.
The Fear and Greed Index stands at 28 points—this is the fear zone, but there is no longer the panic seen a month ago when the indicator dropped to around 10 points. This suggests that the market is not ready for a sustained upward move, but there is also no strong desire to sell at current prices.
Investors fear both a recession, the risks of which they see in the U.S. labor department's unemployment statistics, and a new acceleration of inflation, which is possible in the case of active stimulus measures by regulators. One such measure could be the Risk Management Program (RMP) launched by the Fed in December, under which $40 billion in Treasury bills will be purchased over the next 30 days.
Investors' fear of recession and inflation is reflected in the growing demand for safe-haven assets. Gold prices exceeded $4,500 per ounce, and silver rose to the $71–$72 zone. For the crypto market, this is important not in itself, but as a signal. In previous periods, strengthening commodity markets and rising precious metals often preceded Bitcoin's rise, as they reflected a search for alternatives to traditional financial instruments.
Against this backdrop, volatility is increasing in the segment of risky assets. An active portfolio reshuffling is underway. Some investors are reducing positions in risky instruments, including cryptocurrencies, while others, on the contrary, are using fluctuations to cautiously accumulate.
No sharp changes in the crypto market are expected in the coming week. This is a week of calm after the Christmas holidays, when trading activity is traditionally low. Nevertheless, volatility may be above average. On one hand, growing demand for precious metals provides background support for Bitcoin. On the other hand, Bitcoin remains a risky asset, and some investors may temporarily reduce their positions.
The most likely scenario for the next week is sideways trading within a range of $84,000 to $93,000.
ETH looks slightly weaker than Bitcoin and will most likely continue to move with the overall market, without an independent impulse for growth. At best, its price may attempt to return to the $3,000 level, but there are no sustained prerequisites for this yet. Demand remains sluggish, inflows of new capital are limited, and investors are not ready to actively increase positions without clear signals on liquidity and overall market sentiment.
The market is unlikely to receive significant signals from central banks regarding future monetary policy. This is currently a pause. Investors are reviewing their asset portfolios and roles, but no radical shifts in crypto market dynamics are expected yet.
