Matrixport Market Watch: Repricing After High-Level Correction, Crypto Market Enters New Stage of Stock Game

Recently, global markets have shown a delicate balance amid high-level fluctuations. On one hand, expectations of interest rate cuts and marginally weaker macroeconomic data have provided some support for risk assets; on the other hand, geopolitical uncertainties have led to a distinct characteristic of market risk appetite: "resistance on the upside, sensitivity to pullbacks." Against this backdrop, capital allocation strategies are shifting from pursuing growth to emphasizing defense and certainty.

The strong performance of gold (up 6.15% in December) confirms this logic, as traditional defensive assets have seen increased allocations. Meanwhile, although the stock market has shown index resilience, its internal structure is undergoing profound changes: capital is quietly flowing from high-valuation, high-crowding sectors to value and cyclical sectors with more visible cash flows, forming a rebalancing pattern of "stable index, changing structure."

The cryptocurrency market is inevitably amplified by macro sentiment and capital flow fluctuations. Currently, the market is undergoing a typical high-level correction and repricing process.

Crypto Spot Market: Entering a "Rebalancing Phase," Lacking Trend-Driven Momentum

Bitcoin experienced a correction after approaching approximately $126,000 and is currently trading mainly in the high-volatility range of $85,000 to $95,000. This pattern can be seen as a "repricing" and "rebalancing" after the market failed to sustain upward momentum. On-chain data shows that selling pressure from long-term holders has marginally eased, but incremental buying remains cautious overall, manifesting more as bargain hunting rather than active chasing of rallies.

Capital flows are a key window into short-term sentiment. The flow of spot Bitcoin ETFs is increasingly significant for the market: if net outflows persist, marginal buying power will be suppressed; only when outflows converge and turn into sustained inflows is it more likely to inject momentum for the restart of a trend-driven rally.

Futures and Options: Leverage Unwinding, Market Returns to "Healthy Gameplay"

Excessive leverage in the futures market has been significantly unwound. Open interest (OI) has retreated to safer levels, greatly reducing the risk of cascading liquidations. A noteworthy signal is that BTC forward contracts once showed a discount, and the futures-spot spread converged to its lowest level in a year driven by hedging activities, reflecting a cooling of market optimism and enhanced risk management awareness.

The options market, meanwhile, shows signs of gradual sentiment repair. The implied volatility (IV) center for BTC and ETH options has retreated from highs, indicating that the market is shifting from panic over "sudden shocks" to a more normalized pricing mode. Although the implied volatility skew shows that the market still has some concerns about pullbacks in the short term, overall sentiment is repairing. In the current positioning structure, call options still dominate, and with a large number of options expiring on December 26th, key strike prices have become important short-term resistance and support levels.

Crypto Stocks: Premium Fades, Value Reassessment Underway

The stock performance of crypto-related listed companies also reflects the market's return from frenzy to rationality.

• Digital Asset Trusts (DATs): The ratio of their market capitalization to net asset value has fallen to near 1x, significantly compressing the substantial premium generated earlier by "equity packaging." Their stock price volatility is amplified by "coin price retracement" and "potential financing dilution expectations."
• Mining and Hashrate Sector: Valuations have shown clear differentiation. The valuation of companies relying solely on hashrate operations depends more on cost control and capacity expansion efficiency; while companies with quality power and data center resources see their valuation logic partially benefit from the market's "repricing" of the potential cash flows of their infrastructure in the AI computing field.
• Exchanges and Compliant Platforms: As bridges connecting the traditional and crypto worlds, the scarcity premium of their licenses and compliance channels still exists, but future valuation increases will depend more on the actual realization of institutional business penetration and recurring revenue.

Summary and Strategic Outlook

The current crypto market is in a stage of "rebalancing after a high-level correction." Macro uncertainties are suppressing risk appetite, and the market lacks clear unilateral trend drivers. The healthy deleveraging in the futures market and the decline in volatility in the options market make the overall landscape closer to "healthy stock gameplay."

In this environment, trend traders may need more patience, waiting for clearer signals from the macro or capital flow fronts. For investors focusing on the current market characteristics, the following strategic ideas can be considered:

• Oscillatory and Neutral: Consider products like FCNs (Fixed Coupon Notes) or Dual Currency Investments, which aim to capture potential coupon income by selling volatility.
• Bullish and Accumulating on Dips: Consider using discounted Accumulators to build positions in batches during market fluctuations, utilizing their knock-out (KO) mechanism to control the risk of chasing highs.
• Bearish or Seeking Hedging/Reduction: Decumulator or Covered Call strategies can help premium batch reduction during volatility or provide downside protection for spot holdings.
• Need Liquidity and Avoid Liquidation Risk: For investors with financing needs but unwilling to bear margin call risks, non-recourse guaranteed financing products offer a low-interest and risk-controlled option.

The "repricing" process as the market returns to calm after the noise is often the beginning of a new cycle brewing. Staying sharp in defense and seeking structure in balance might be the optimal way to navigate the current phase.

The above content is from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management. This article represents the author's personal views only.