Written by: Mamengniu, Deep Tide TechFlow
Fed: Keeps Rates Unchanged, Removes "Labor Market Weakness" Wording
At 3:00 AM Beijing time on January 29, the Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate decision of 2026: maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations.
The key change was in the statement wording: the phrase "risks of labor market weakness are higher than those of rising inflation" was removed and replaced with "job growth is slow, the unemployment rate is stabilizing, and inflation remains at a slightly elevated level." This indicates the Fed views its dual mandates as more balanced and is in no rush to cut rates.
Powell emphasized during the press conference that rates are "at an appropriate level" and that the Fed needs to observe how Trump's fiscal stimulus and tariff policies will affect inflation and employment. The market expects rates to remain unchanged throughout Q1, with the earliest rate cut likely in June or September, most probably pushed by Powell's successor (his term ends in May).
Political pressure reached a peak: a criminal investigation by the Justice Department, Trump's threats to dismiss board members, and the imminent announcement of a new chair are all testing the Fed's independence. However, Powell remained restrained, avoiding direct confrontation.
U.S. Stocks: S&P Nears 7000, Storage Sector Robust
U.S. stocks showed divergent movements on the 28th (Tuesday). The S&P 500 index rose 0.41% to 6978.60 points, approaching the 7000 mark and refreshing its historical high; the Nasdaq rose 0.91% to 23817.10 points; the Dow Jones fell 0.83% to 49003.41 points, dragged down by a sharp decline in health insurance stocks. UnitedHealth, issuing its first revenue warning in 30 years, plummeted nearly 20%.
The storage sector continued its epic rally. Premarket, Micron Technology rose over 4%, SanDisk rose over 5%, Western Digital rose over 2%, and Seagate Technology rose over 1%, all hitting new all-time highs.
This "storage super cycle" was ignited by AI data center construction. The core logic: AI server storage demand far exceeds that of regular servers, capacity is shifting towards high-end products (HBM) squeezing traditional capacity, triggering an industry-wide price increase wave. In 2025, SanDisk became the top performer in the S&P 500 with a 577% gain, Western Digital rose 280%, Micron Technology rose 235%, and Seagate Technology rose 215%.
Institutions predict the super cycle will last until late 2026 or even 2027. South Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix continue to cut NAND production, Micron executives reiterated that the memory shortage will persist beyond 2026. Citigroup raised its price target for SanDisk from $280 to $490.
Tech stocks were the main drivers of the gains, led by Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft. The market awaits earnings reports from tech giants this week (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla), focusing on whether AI investments can deliver returns.
Precious Metals: Gold Breaks $5250, Silver Surges Then Retreats
On the 28th, spot gold continued to climb, breaking through $5258/oz, gaining over $77 intraday, and closing above the $5200 mark for the first time. It gained 20% in January and over 5% this week. Domestic gold jewelry prices exceeded 1600 yuan/gram, with Lao Feng Xiang reporting 1620 yuan/gram.
Silver上演"倒 V"走势 (Silver上演"inverted V" movement). Overnight, it surged to a high of $115.8/oz (up 14%), but then profit-taking by longs led to a concentrated sell-off, erasing all gains. It ultimately closed with a mere 0.4% gain at $103.625/oz. Year-to-date gains are 48%-55%.
Regulators began cooling measures. On the 27th, CME raised the margin requirement for silver futures to 11%. On the same day, E Fund Gold Theme LOF and SDIC Silver LOF suspended subscriptions, with SDIC Silver LOF halting trading during the session to warn of risks.
Institutional分歧加剧 (Institutional divergence intensified). Heraeus warned that silver is excessively overvalued, marking the most intense rally since 1980. Former JPMorgan strategist Kolanovic believes the gains are mainly speculative ("meme traders") and expects a potential drop to half the current level later in 2026. However, UBS predicts an 8%-12% technical correction for gold in Q2, while JPMorgan does not rule out a short-term touch of $6000.
Cryptocurrency: Volatility, Hot Sectors Diverge Sharply
Bitcoin was at $89,273.7, up 1.78% in 24 hours, rebounding from the previous day's volatile lows. Ethereum fluctuated within the $2900-$3000 range. Overall, Bitcoin has retraced over 30% from its October 2025 peak of $126,080.
Focus on细分赛道 (细分赛道 - specific sectors/sub-sectors). Hyperliquid (HYPE) surged 17% in a single day, becoming the market's biggest highlight.
HYPE rose from around $28 the previous day to $32.73, with a 7-day gain of 58.3% and a monthly gain of 25.4%. This rally was driven by multiple catalysts: a U.S. CFTC commissioner indicated that "cryptocurrency perpetual futures" might be approved for trading in the U.S. soon, leading to rapid capital inflows into the perpetual contract market; the 24-hour trading volume for silver perpetual contract on Hyperliquid reached $1.25 billion, becoming the third most traded asset on the platform,仅次于 (仅次于 - only behind) BTC and ETH.
Core Logic: Political Uncertainty vs. AI Narrative
The market presents a dual narrative: on one side, the repricing of political risks (Fed independence, tariff policies, USD credit contraction) drives the surge in precious metals; on the other, AI industry chain demand (storage super cycle) pushes tech stocks to new highs.
Silver's single-day巨震 (巨震 - huge volatility) (14% gain erased), CME raising margins, and funds suspending subscriptions indicate excessive speculation. The storage sector remains strong, but the market awaits an answer: can the massive capital expenditures on AI (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet totaling $440 billion) deliver returns?
The Fed holding steady means monetary policy has entered a "wait-and-see period." The real uncertainty lies in: how will Powell's successor respond to Trump's demands for rate cuts? Can the Fed's independence be maintained? This will determine the medium to long-term trend of the dollar and the markets.
Risk提示 (Risk提示 - Risk Warning): Silver is overheated short-term; CME raising margins + fund subscription suspensions are warnings; Gold may see an 8%-12% technical correction; Storage sector faces a pullback after significant gains; AI investment returns are uncertain; Fed personnel changes bring policy uncertainty.
This article is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice.
