Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)
Insider information providing an unfair competitive advantage has long been a controversial focus on prediction markets like Polymarket.
Previously, during the US military's operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, the odds for related events on Polymarket showed abnormal movements ahead of time (see "When War is Settled Before the News: How Prediction Markets 'Priced' the Maduro Capture Operation 6 Days Early"). If that suspected insider activity could still be explained away by fluctuations in the "Pizza Index," then this time, it can be said that there is definitely an insider on Polymarket, completely confirmed.
Israeli Military Catching "Insiders" Internally
On February 12, Israel's largest English-language newspaper, The Jerusalem Post, reported that the Tel Aviv District Court indicted an Israeli civilian and an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reservist on Monday, accusing the two of using classified military information to place bets on Polymarket for profit. The court revealed on Thursday that Israeli authorities believe this behavior poses a serious operational security risk during wartime.
According to a statement approved for release by the prosecution, the suspects were arrested in a joint operation by the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet), the investigation unit under the Ministry of Defense's security agency, and the Israeli police. Investigators suspect that some reservists are using the classified information they access through their military duties to bet on the timing of military operations and profit from it.
Following the investigation, the prosecution stated that it has obtained evidence of misconduct by the civilian and the reservist and has therefore decided to indict the two on charges of "serious security crimes" as well as bribery and obstruction of justice. Meanwhile, the prosecution requested the court to extend the suspects' detention until the conclusion of the trial.
Apart from the information released above, more details of the case remain under a legal gag order, including the identities of the defendants, the specific betting content, and the alleged information flow situation.
Tracing the Insider's Activities
Although we cannot learn the true identity and account information of this insider, the X community had already discovered an account on Polymarket with clearly abnormal behavior. The Jerusalem Post also included a screenshot of this account's profits in its report.
As shown in the image above, this user named Rundeep joined Polymarket in June 2025 and subsequently achieved a 100% win rate in six prediction markets related to Israeli military actions, with five of those bets placed when the probability was below 50%, ultimately profiting over $150,000.
It is worth mentioning that Odaily Planet Daily found that Rundeep had only one loss on Polymarket aside from these "six wins in six attempts." However, this failed prediction was not directly related to Israel but was about "whether the US military would take action against Iran before Saturday (June 21, 2025)"... It seems allied intelligence isn't very reliable after all.
The Real-World Repercussions of Prediction Markets, Truly Frightening to Ponder
Due to Polymarket's open, permissionless nature, anyone can freely place bets on the platform, which objectively provides a more convenient channel for "monetizing information" for those with intelligence advantages — driven by profit, those holding unequal information advantages find it hard to resist the temptation, making it inevitable that insiders will step in to make money.
If such things happened in conventional areas like sports or entertainment, the impact might still be somewhat controllable. But when similar insider betting events occur in sensitive areas like politics or even war, the potential连带 (liándài -连带 means连带, chain, related) terrifying consequences are hard to imagine.
Taking this article as an example, if opposing forces guessed the direction of an Israeli operation in advance through insider betting on Polymarket before the action took place, could it have a huge impact on the subsequent evolution of events? Most people might not easily sympathize with Israel, but in fact, such events could happen to any entity.
In traditional gambling, public affairs such as political elections, legislative outcomes, and wars are usually subject to clear restrictions. Whether prediction markets will face similar regulatory restrictions in the future may involve a long-term regulatory博弈 (bóyì -博弈 means game theory,博弈, struggle,博弈).
