Despite broader caution that 2026 may usher in a bear market, Grayscale has made a contrarian bet – a new all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin [BTC].
In its 2026 outlook, the asset manager projected that rising demand for safe havens, also known as the debasement trade, alongside regulatory clarity, will drive BTC higher.
“We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called ‘four-year cycle.’ Bitcoin’s price will likely reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year, in our view.”
According to Grayscale, the U.S. debt problem will persist, devalue dollar investments, and force players to seek scarce ‘alternative stores of value’ such as gold, silver, BTC, or ETH. The firm added,
“As long as the risk of fiat currency debasement keeps rising, portfolio demand for Bitcoin and Ether will likely continue rising as well.”
Grayscale downplays DAT sell-off
On digital asset treasuries (DATs) sell-offs as a potential negative trigger for a bear market, the firm downplayed such a scenario. The MSCI index exclusion review, ahead of the mid-January deadline, has unnerved many investors.
Currently, many market participants worry that Strategy might dump its BTC holdings, which could trigger a market crash. This concern stems from the possibility that MSCI could remove Strategy, along with other DATs, from its index.
If that happens amid already compressed mNAVs, the relative value of their crypto holdings compared to enterprise assets, the pressure on the market could intensify.
However, Grayscale stated that most DATs aren’t excessively leveraged to trigger liquidations and sell-offs. It added,
“These vehicles are likely to be a permanent feature of the crypto investing landscape but are unlikely to be a major source of new demand for tokens or a major source of selling pressure in 2026.”
Interestingly, Bitwise echoed Grayscale’s bullish outlook. In a memo, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that institutional capital and regulatory clarity will drive the price of BTC higher in 2026.
Even so, the current Options market positioning on Deribit suggested caution and extreme hedging in the H1 2026.
This was revealed by the negative readings for 25-Delta Skew across 2-month, 3-month, and 6-month tenors, underscoring bearish sentiment.
It is still uncertain whether the traditional 4‐year cycle will be broken. Another question is whether DATs could further disrupt the markets through forced liquidations.
At the same time, BTC was trading at $86k, moving into a week marked by key macroeconomic updates.
Final Thoughts
- Grayscale projected that the likely passage of the crypto market structure bill and debasement trade will lift BTC to a new ATH by H1 2026.
- Although the asset manager downplayed a DAT sell-off led by Strategy, the market was still cautious.
