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Kalshi's Daily Stock Open Interest Hits Record High of $17.98 Million

Kalshi's daily open interest for its perpetual futures product hit a record $17.98 million on August 12th, just over two months after its launch. The CFTC-approved platform, which began with Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts in early June, now lists 13 crypto assets. Open interest remained below $5 million initially, saw mid-June spikes to $13-14 million, stabilized around $6-7 million, and has steadily climbed since July, consistently holding above $12 million in recent weeks. This growth indicates sustained trader engagement on a platform that recently offered only short-term binary contracts. Despite this rapid growth, Kalshi's total crypto perpetuals portfolio is small in scale, representing about 0.15% of rival Hyperliquid's $11.7 billion daily open interest. The comparison is structurally limited: each Kalshi contract requires federal regulatory pre-approval, resulting in a small list, whereas permissionless platforms like Hyperliquid support hundreds of pairs. The concentrated open interest on Kalshi's few approved contracts signals strong demand within its specific niche. Analysts suggest Kalshi is not cannibalizing existing decentralized exchange volume but is tapping a previously underserved pool of U.S.-based traders who lacked a legal, leveraged crypto platform. The true size of this new user pool remains unknown. While a market downturn could disrupt the trend, the open interest chart has so far shown consistent upward momentum.

cryptonews.ru08/14 11:22

Kalshi's Daily Stock Open Interest Hits Record High of $17.98 Million

cryptonews.ru08/14 11:22

GPT-5 Also Has Tip-of-the-Tongue Moments, Google Tested 4.5 Million Times: The Keys Are Lost

Google researchers have discovered that advanced AI models like GPT-5 and Gemini 3 experience a phenomenon akin to the human "tip-of-the-tongue" state, where they possess knowledge but fail to retrieve it. Their study, "Empty Shelves or Lost Keys?" (ICML 2026), introduces the "Knowledge Portrait" framework to analyze factual knowledge in models, distinguishing between failure to encode a fact versus failure to recall it. Testing on 13 models across 2.15 million queries from the WikiProfile benchmark revealed that state-of-the-art models successfully encode 95-98% of facts into their parameters. However, when asked directly, they fail to recall 26-34% of these known facts. Enabling chain-of-thought ("thinking") reasoning reduces this recall failure to 11-12%, recovering 40-65% of the previously unrecalled but encoded facts. The research identifies two key bottlenecks: recalling obscure ("long-tail") facts and answering reversed queries (e.g., "Who is Tom Cruise's mother?" vs. "Whose son is Tom Cruise?"). While scaling model size effectively reduces encoding failures, it does little to improve recall rates. In larger models, recall failure becomes the dominant source of factual errors, accounting for over 70% of mistakes in GPT-5.2. The findings suggest that for top models, the primary challenge is no longer storing knowledge but accessing it efficiently. Future accuracy gains may depend more on improved inference-time methods and "meta-cognitive" abilities, enabling models to recognize when they need to engage in deeper reasoning to retrieve information they already know.

marsbit08/14 08:15

GPT-5 Also Has Tip-of-the-Tongue Moments, Google Tested 4.5 Million Times: The Keys Are Lost

marsbit08/14 08:15

A New Scaling Variable for Text-to-Image Generation, Discovered by ByteDance's Seed Team

ByteDance's SEED team investigated a crucial but often overlooked scaling variable in text-to-image diffusion models: the amount of image-grounded information in training captions. They found that simply increasing caption length with natural language does not improve model performance, as it often adds redundancy without new, usable visual supervision. The core discovery is that the final training loss of a diffusion model can be predicted by the *information content* of its text condition, measured by two complementary metrics: Grounded Perplexity Gain (GPG) and Effective Detailness (ED). This establishes a scaling relationship for text conditioning. To systematically increase information content, the team proposed **Structured Prompt (SP)**, a JSON-based representation that organizes visual variables (global scene, object attributes, spatial relationships) into clear fields, enhancing **Diffusability**—the model's ability to learn from captions. For inference, an LLM **Prompter** is trained to convert user queries into detailed SP instances, defining **Promptability**. The overall generation quality is viewed as a product of Diffusability and Promptability. A three-stage training strategy (SFT, cold-start reasoning distillation, and verifier-guided reinforcement) significantly improves the prompter's capability. The structured format also enables efficient iterative refinement through a *refine-render-judge* loop. In matched-control experiments using the same Qwen-Image backbone, data, and compute, the SP-based system substantially outperformed its natural-language counterpart, demonstrating that gains stem from the structured information interface, not just more training. The work shows that scaling text-to-image models requires scaling the *usable visual information* in conditions, not just model size or data volume.

marsbit08/12 03:17

A New Scaling Variable for Text-to-Image Generation, Discovered by ByteDance's Seed Team

marsbit08/12 03:17

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