Bitcoin’s lack of ‘crazy’ year-end price means no hard crash in Q1: Pomp

cointelegraphPublished on 2025-12-24Last updated on 2025-12-24

Abstract

Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano argues that the absence of a dramatic year-end price surge for Bitcoin may actually prevent a major crash in Q1 of the coming year. He notes that Bitcoin’s volatility has significantly decreased, making a severe drop of 70–80% unlikely. Despite short-term disappointment from some investors expecting a rally to $250,000, Pompliano highlights Bitcoin’s strong performance—up 100% in two years and nearly 300% in three. While analysts like Peter Brandt and Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer predict possible declines to $60,000–$65,000 by 2026, Pompliano believes reduced volatility offers downside protection and lowers the risk of extreme drawdowns.

Bitcoin’s lack of an exciting year-end price rally may be the catalyst that prevents a significant crash in the first quarter of next year, according to Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano.

“Given where the volatility is right now, it would be very surprising that Bitcoin’s volatility has drastically compressed and yet still could get a 70% or 80% drawdown,” Pompliano said during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday.

Pompliano said the short-term disappointment from Bitcoin (BTC) holders over the asset not reaching $250,000 this year overlooks the broader performance. “We have to remember that Bitcoin is up 100% in two years. It’s up almost 300% in three years. It has been compounding,” he said.

“This thing has been a monster in financial markets,” he added.

Pomp points to no “big 80% drawdown for Bitcoin

Pompliano said that the decline in Bitcoin’s volatility has largely gone unnoticed by Bitcoin holders, compared with the attention on the asset’s price drop since the start of the year.

“We didn’t get a blowoff top that I think people expected at the end of Q3, or beginning of Q4, but we haven’t seen the big 80% drawdown that people normally expect as well,” he said.

Bitcoin is trading at $87,436 at the time of publication, down 7.39% from its price on Jan. 1, according to CoinMarketCap.

Anthony Pompliano spoke to CNBC on Tuesday. Source: CNBC Television

Bitcoin advocates such as BitMine chair Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes had forecast Bitcoin price reaching as high as $250,000 this year.

Pompliano said the compression in volatility means holders may be “a little bit disappointed on the upside” due to the absence of blow-off tops, but it also provides “some degree of safety” on the downside, reducing the likelihood of massive drawdowns.

Some Bitcoin analysts are tipping $60K in 2026

However, not all analysts are as confident as Pompliano.

Related: Brazil's live orchestra to turn Bitcoin price moves into music

Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently predicted that Bitcoin could fall as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.

Meanwhile, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macroeconomic research, said 2026 could be a “year off” for Bitcoin, with prices potentially falling to as low as $65,000.

Magazine: Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

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Related Questions

QAccording to Anthony Pompliano, why might Bitcoin avoid a significant crash in Q1 of next year?

ABecause Bitcoin did not have an exciting year-end price rally, which means there was no 'blowoff top' that typically precedes a massive drawdown. The compression in volatility also provides some safety on the downside.

QWhat is the current year-to-date performance of Bitcoin's price as mentioned in the article?

ABitcoin is down 7.39% from its price on Jan. 1, trading at $87,436 at the time of publication.

QWhat were some of the optimistic Bitcoin price forecasts for this year that were not met?

ABitcoin advocates like Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes had forecast the price to reach as high as $250,000 this year.

QWhat contrasting predictions for Bitcoin's price in 2026 are mentioned in the article?

AVeteran trader Peter Brandt predicted Bitcoin could fall to $60,000 by Q3 2026, and Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer said prices could fall as low as $65,000, calling it a potential 'year off' for Bitcoin.

QHow does Pompliano describe Bitcoin's performance over the last few years despite short-term disappointment?

AHe said Bitcoin is up 100% in two years and up almost 300% in three years, calling it a 'monster in financial markets' that has been compounding.

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