Bitcoin Whales Are Exiting The Profit Territory — And It Could Get Worse

bitcoinistPublished on 2026-02-14Last updated on 2026-02-14

Abstract

Bitcoin's price pressure in 2026 is eroding profits, particularly for large investors known as whales. On-chain data indicates the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has dropped to around 0.2, signaling these whales are nearing zero unrealized profits. Historically, such levels occur in advanced bear market stages. If this trend continues, it may lead to market capitulation, increasing selling pressure. Recent data shows new short-term whales realized over $3 billion in losses between February 3-7. Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $68,710, up over 5% in 24 hours but down nearly 3% for the week.

The price of Bitcoin has been under intense pressure so far in 2026, with the bear market wiping out the profits of several classes of investors. According to the latest on-chain data, this trend could have a broader ripple effect on the premier cryptocurrency in this bear market, especially as it affects an important cohort of the largest BTC investors.

Whales’ Realized Losses Could Put Further Pressure On Price

In a February 13th post on the social media platform X, pseudonymous crypto analyst Darkfost shared an insight into the current holdings of a relevant group of investors known as Bitcoin whales. According to the market pundit, the unrealized profits of this investor cohort are getting wiped out by the current market correction.

Specifically, this on-chain is based on the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric of the “Big Whales,” which represents addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC. For context, the NUPL is a ratio of investors’ unrealized profits and losses; with a high (and often positive) ratio indicating the dominance of unrealized profits, while a negative value suggests otherwise.

According to the highlighted CryptoQuant data, the NUPL value for the largest Bitcoin whales currently stands at around 0.2. As shown in the chart below, this NUPL level (around the yellow region) has historically coincided with well-advanced stages of the bear market, meaning that this group of whales is nearing zero unrealized profits.

Source: @Darkfost_Coc on X

While this is yet to be the case, it is worth mentioning that these BTC whales have historically always held mostly unrealized losses at bear market bottoms. Hence, what’s important is what happens with their holdings between now and the end of the current corrective phase.

According to Darkfost, whales’ holdings being under this much pressure could mean market capitulation, further dragging the Bitcoin price downward. Hints of this trend can already be seen in recent days, especially amongst the new whales.

These short-term Bitcoin whales are currently realizing significant losses at a rapid rate. Between February 3 and 7, more than $3 billion in losses were realized by this new group of whales. In essence, sustained capitulation by this investor cohort could be a fresh source of selling pressure for the BTC price.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $68,710, reflecting an over 5% jump in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is down by nearly 3% in the past week.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Related Questions

QWhat is the current Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) value for Bitcoin whales holding more than 1,000 BTC, and what does this level historically signify?

AThe current NUPL value for the largest Bitcoin whales stands at around 0.2. Historically, this level (around the yellow region on the chart) has coincided with well-advanced stages of a bear market, indicating that this group of whales is nearing zero unrealized profits.

QAccording to the analyst Darkfost, what potential market event could result from the intense pressure on whale holdings?

AAccording to Darkfost, the intense pressure on whale holdings could lead to market capitulation, which would further drag the Bitcoin price downward.

QHow much in losses were realized by new, short-term Bitcoin whales between February 3rd and 7th?

ABetween February 3rd and 7th, more than $3 billion in losses were realized by the new group of short-term Bitcoin whales.

QWhat was the price of Bitcoin and its 24-hour performance at the time the article was written?

AAt the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin stood at around $68,710, reflecting an over 5% jump in the past 24 hours.

QWhat does a negative Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) value indicate about an investor cohort's holdings?

AA negative NUPL value indicates that unrealized losses dominate the holdings of that investor cohort, meaning their investments are currently at a loss on paper.

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