Bitcoin – Assessing why BTC LTH selling fears may be overblown

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-20Last updated on 2025-12-20

Abstract

Recent data initially suggested Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) were selling heavily, sparking concerns about market stability. However, analysis reveals this was largely a technical distortion caused by Coinbase’s internal reshuffle of nearly 800,000 BTC in late November, which disrupted on-chain data. When these transactions are excluded, LTH selling appears steady and consistent with historical cycles. Market indicators support a more balanced outlook. The NVT Golden Cross, after dipping into undervalued territory, is recovering toward neutral levels—a pattern historically associated with accumulation phases. Bitcoin’s RSI also neared oversold conditions, often a precursor to relief rallies, though price action remains below key EMAs. Analysts like Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research note that while 2026 may bring continued volatility and uncertainty, the long-term perspective remains positive due to growing institutional involvement and Bitcoin’s use as a hedge. Some projections even suggest a potential rise to $250K by late 2026. Overall, fears of LTH panic selling are overblown, and the market shows signs of maturation and stability.

At first glance, the data looked worrying. The numbers showed long-term holders (LTHs) selling Bitcoin [BTC] heavily, with worries about whether BTC was starting to crack.

But a closer look tells you more.

Analysts now say the spike was distorted, which means the narrative around Bitcoin’s latest moves may be far less dramatic than perceived.

A narrative that’s falling apart

Claims that Bitcoin’s LTHs are dumping coins have been overstated.

A recent post by analyst Darkfost on X said that the spike in selling pressure was largely the result of a technical distortion.

In late November, Coinbase moved nearly 800,000 BTC, destroying old long-term holder UTXOs and creating new ones when Bitcoin traded around $85,000.

Source: X

The recent internal reshuffle distorted on‑chain data, creating the impression that LTHs were selling more than they actually were. 

Once Coinbase‑related transactions are excluded, the data reveal that LTHs are selling at a steady, normal pace consistent with previous cycles.

Adding to that…

When the NVT Golden Cross drops into deeply undervalued territory, it has preceded accumulation. We’re seeing a similar move now, with the indicator climbing back toward neutral levels.

Source: CryptoQuant

The market is transitioning into a more balanced valuation. In past cycles, that pattern was in tandem with steadier demand and healthier price discovery.

While it doesn’t guarantee immediate gains, it does show the current environment is more consistent with accumulation.

What next for BTC

Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s RSI was near oversold levels, and past data shows that such dips often happen before relief rallies. However, price action remains below major EMAs, so bullishness isn’t yet fully restored.

Source: X

Analysts like Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn argue that 2026 may stay uncertain, with wide price ranges showing the current ambiguity.

Bitcoin’s market is maturing, with more institutional involvement and use as a hedge. While it might struggle to stay above $100k in the short term, the long-term outlook is positive.

This is evident with their bold $250K prediction for late next year!

Final Thoughts

  • Bitcoin’s LTHs are selling normally, not panicking.
  • Indicators and institutional activity show a maturing market. There’s potential for $250K BTC by late 2026.
Next: Solana vs. Ethereum heats up – Is the ‘ETH killer’ narrative finally real?
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Related Questions

QWhat was the initial concern about Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) based on the data, and why is it considered overblown?

AThe initial data showed LTHs selling Bitcoin heavily, raising concerns about a potential market crack. However, this was distorted by Coinbase's internal reshuffle of nearly 800,000 BTC in late November, which created new UTXOs and made it appear like excessive selling. When excluding Coinbase-related transactions, LTH selling is actually at a normal, steady pace consistent with previous cycles.

QHow did the NVT Golden Cross indicator behave, and what does it suggest for Bitcoin's market phase?

AThe NVT Golden Cross dropped into deeply undervalued territory, which historically precedes accumulation phases. It is now climbing back toward neutral levels, indicating the market is transitioning into a more balanced valuation with steadier demand and healthier price discovery, consistent with past cycles.

QWhat does Bitcoin's RSI and price action relative to EMAs indicate about its short-term trajectory?

ABitcoin's RSI was near oversold levels, which often precedes relief rallies. However, the price remains below major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting bullish sentiment isn't fully restored yet in the short term.

QWhat is the long-term price prediction for Bitcoin mentioned in the article, and what supports this outlook?

AThe article mentions a bold prediction of $250K for Bitcoin by late 2026. This is supported by the market's maturation, increased institutional involvement, Bitcoin's use as a hedge, and indicators showing a normal accumulation phase despite short-term uncertainties.

QAccording to analysts, why is 2026 expected to be uncertain for Bitcoin, and what factors contribute to this ambiguity?

AAnalysts like Alex Thorn argue that 2026 may remain uncertain with wide price ranges due to the market's current ambiguity. Factors include the ongoing maturation of Bitcoin's market, institutional dynamics, and macroeconomic conditions, though the long-term outlook remains positive.

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