Bitcoin – Assessing why BTC LTH selling fears may be overblown

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-12-20Last updated on 2025-12-20

Abstract

Recent data initially suggested Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) were selling heavily, sparking concerns about market stability. However, analysis reveals this was largely a technical distortion caused by Coinbase’s internal reshuffle of nearly 800,000 BTC in late November, which disrupted on-chain data. When these transactions are excluded, LTH selling appears steady and consistent with historical cycles. Market indicators support a more balanced outlook. The NVT Golden Cross, after dipping into undervalued territory, is recovering toward neutral levels—a pattern historically associated with accumulation phases. Bitcoin’s RSI also neared oversold conditions, often a precursor to relief rallies, though price action remains below key EMAs. Analysts like Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research note that while 2026 may bring continued volatility and uncertainty, the long-term perspective remains positive due to growing institutional involvement and Bitcoin’s use as a hedge. Some projections even suggest a potential rise to $250K by late 2026. Overall, fears of LTH panic selling are overblown, and the market shows signs of maturation and stability.

At first glance, the data looked worrying. The numbers showed long-term holders (LTHs) selling Bitcoin [BTC] heavily, with worries about whether BTC was starting to crack.

But a closer look tells you more.

Analysts now say the spike was distorted, which means the narrative around Bitcoin’s latest moves may be far less dramatic than perceived.

A narrative that’s falling apart

Claims that Bitcoin’s LTHs are dumping coins have been overstated.

A recent post by analyst Darkfost on X said that the spike in selling pressure was largely the result of a technical distortion.

In late November, Coinbase moved nearly 800,000 BTC, destroying old long-term holder UTXOs and creating new ones when Bitcoin traded around $85,000.

Source: X

The recent internal reshuffle distorted on‑chain data, creating the impression that LTHs were selling more than they actually were.

Once Coinbase‑related transactions are excluded, the data reveal that LTHs are selling at a steady, normal pace consistent with previous cycles.

Adding to that…

When the NVT Golden Cross drops into deeply undervalued territory, it has preceded accumulation. We’re seeing a similar move now, with the indicator climbing back toward neutral levels.

Source: CryptoQuant

The market is transitioning into a more balanced valuation. In past cycles, that pattern was in tandem with steadier demand and healthier price discovery.

While it doesn’t guarantee immediate gains, it does show the current environment is more consistent with accumulation.

What next for BTC

Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s RSI was near oversold levels, and past data shows that such dips often happen before relief rallies. However, price action remains below major EMAs, so bullishness isn’t yet fully restored.

Source: X

Analysts like Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn argue that 2026 may stay uncertain, with wide price ranges showing the current ambiguity.

Bitcoin’s market is maturing, with more institutional involvement and use as a hedge. While it might struggle to stay above $100k in the short term, the long-term outlook is positive.

This is evident with their bold $250K prediction for late next year!

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin’s LTHs are selling normally, not panicking.
Indicators and institutional activity show a maturing market. There’s potential for $250K BTC by late 2026.

Trending Cryptos

CitreaCTR

wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT

Platform Token Surges 15-Fold in Half a Month, Pons Tops Both Token Issuance and Trading on Robinhood Chain

The article details the rapid rise of Pons as the leading token launch and trading platform on Robinhood Chain. Following NOXA's halt of new token issuance, several platforms vied for the resulting traffic. By mid-July, Pons surged ahead, achieving the highest daily token creation volume (over 15,000 tokens on July 15th) and soon after capturing the largest daily trading volume ($40.7M on July 18th), consistently maintaining both top positions. Pons's key advantage is its streamlined, single-transaction process that deploys a token's contract and its Uniswap V3 liquidity pool simultaneously, eliminating the need for bonding curves or subsequent DEX migrations. This simplicity caters to the demand for fast, low-cost launches on Robinhood Chain. The platform's native token, PONS, played a pivotal role in its growth, experiencing a price surge of over 15x from mid-July. A tokenomics model that uses 80% of protocol fees to buy back and burn PONS has contributed to its value and heightened platform visibility. Looking ahead, Pons V2 aims to expand beyond meme tokens by integrating support for paying transaction fees with assets like USDG or RWA tokens, aligning with Robinhood Chain's focus on on-chain finance and real-world assets.

marsbit18m ago

Platform Token Surges 15-Fold in Half a Month, Pons Tops Both Token Issuance and Trading on Robinhood Chain

marsbit18m ago

Apple's Q3 Results Largely Meet Expectations, Supply and Memory Pressure Drive After-Hours Drop of 6%

Apple's Q3 (FY2026) earnings largely met expectations, but weak guidance and rising costs drove the stock down 6.3% after hours. Revenue of $109.42B slightly beat estimates, and EPS of $2.02 was boosted by a $0.11 tariff refund. Core EPS was $1.91, aligning with forecasts. iPhone and Mac sales were strong, but iPad and Services revenue fell short. Greater China growth slowed. The outlook for the next quarter is concerning. Apple guided for 9-11% revenue growth, below the ~12% consensus, citing significant supply constraints for iPhones, Macs, and iPads due to advanced chip shortages. Gross margin guidance of 47-48% includes a 1-point tariff benefit, implying a core margin of 46-47%, down from 48.1% this quarter. Management highlighted rising memory costs as a major pressure point. While Apple's AI initiatives like Siri are progressing, monetization remains early. With the stock near all-time highs, the combination of in-line results, segment weaknesses, and a cautious outlook triggered significant profit-taking. The focus has shifted from resilient demand to supply chain execution and cost management.

marsbit23m ago

Apple's Q3 Results Largely Meet Expectations, Supply and Memory Pressure Drive After-Hours Drop of 6%

marsbit23m ago

Platform Token Soars 15x in Half a Month, Pons Tops Robinhood Chain Charts for Both Token Launches and Trading

In just half a month, the Pons platform token (PONS) surged over 15x in value as Pons solidified its position as the leading token launch and trading platform on Robinhood Chain, capturing both the highest daily token creation volume and transaction volume. Following the exit of previous leader NOXA, competition initially favored Flap before Pons emerged dominant around mid-July. By July 26th, Pons accounted for 77.1% of total trading volume across all Robinhood Chain launchpads. Pons's success is attributed to its streamlined, one-transaction process for deploying a token contract and its corresponding Uniswap V3 liquidity pool simultaneously, eliminating the need for bonding curves or complex migrations. This simplicity, combined with low creation costs and immediate tradability, attracted significant creation activity and speculative trading. The meteoric rise of its native token, PONS, further fueled platform growth. A tokenomics model directing 80% of protocol fees to buy back and burn PONS created a reinforcing cycle: platform usage boosted PONS value, which in turn attracted more users. Looking ahead, Pons V2 aims to expand beyond meme tokens by integrating support for paying fees in stablecoins (USDG) and RWA assets, aligning with Robinhood Chain's broader focus on on-chain finance and stock tokens.

Odaily星球日报23m ago

Platform Token Soars 15x in Half a Month, Pons Tops Robinhood Chain Charts for Both Token Launches and Trading

Odaily星球日报23m ago

Qualcomm Chip Price Hike Deals a Blow to Android Phones

Qualcomm has officially announced a new round of price increases for its entire chip portfolio, effective September 1. The hikes, reaching up to 18% for the flagship Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 Pro, follow similar moves by MediaTek, intensifying cost pressures on the already strained smartphone industry. CEO Cristiano Amon confirmed the plan, citing the need to offset rising industry-wide costs and restore declining profit margins. Qualcomm's Q3 FY2026 results showed a 25% drop in net profit, with mobile revenue plunging 20% year-over-year, hitting its lowest level since 2021. The surge in AI computing demand has led memory manufacturers to prioritize HBM production, creating a shortage in general-purpose DRAM and NAND Flash chips. Their prices soared by 93%-98% and 55%-60% respectively in Q1 2026, causing the memory cost share in smartphones to jump from 10%-15% to over 30%. Coupled with the soaring cost of advanced nodes like TSMC's 2nm and packaging, overall chip costs have reached historic highs. These upstream pressures are forcing downstream smartphone brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo to cut orders for mid-to-low-end models by up to 20% and use cost-saving measures like older chipsets. Reportedly, the Snapdragon 8E5 will be repurposed as a "long-lasting" chip for sub-brand phones in H2 2026. Amid this cost crisis, the Android market remains sluggish. Q2 2026 smartphone shipments in China fell 4.3% year-over-year, marking five consecutive quarters of decline. Major Android brands saw market share drop, while Huawei and Apple, with their in-house chip advantages, gained share. Qualcomm is diversifying into automotive and IoT sectors to reduce reliance on smartphones, but these new segments cannot yet fill the mobile revenue gap. Industry observers warn that the full impact of component cost hikes will hit in the second half of 2026, likely leading to higher-than-expected price increases for Android flagships and a further contraction in the Chinese smartphone market.

marsbit34m ago

Qualcomm Chip Price Hike Deals a Blow to Android Phones

marsbit34m ago

Breaking: GPT-5.6 Prices Slashed Effective Today

OpenAI has announced significant price cuts for its GPT-5.6 model API, effective immediately. The entry-level **GPT-5.6 Luna** sees the most drastic reduction, with input prices dropping 80% to $0.20 per million tokens and output prices falling to $1.20 per million tokens. The mid-tier **GPT-5.6 Terra** is reduced by 20%, now costing $2.00 (input) and $12.00 (output) per million tokens. The flagship **GPT-5.6 Sol** maintains its original price but introduces a new **Fast mode**, offering speeds up to 2.5 times faster for double the cost. The company attributes these price reductions to efficiency gains achieved through **GPT-5.6 Sol's own involvement in optimizing its production systems**. The model assisted in rewriting GPU kernels and improving speculative decoding, leading to a 20% reduction in end-to-end service costs and over 15% improvement in token generation efficiency. OpenAI emphasizes this process remained human-led. A key focus of the降价 is to lower the barrier for running **AI agent workflows**. By making the capable, tool-calling Luna model significantly cheaper, OpenAI aims to enable more frequent use in cost-sensitive, high-volume tasks like code review and monitoring. This creates a potential feedback loop: model-assisted efficiency gains lead to lower costs, which enables broader agent deployment, which in turn drives further optimization. The new pricing and features will also apply to Codex and ChatGPT Work subscriptions. The changes intensify competition in the large language model market, with OpenAI directly challenging rivals like Anthropic to respond.

marsbit1h ago

Breaking: GPT-5.6 Prices Slashed Effective Today

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

1.1k Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

Meet ZetaChain: The Universal L1 for Apps That Work Everywhere — Even on Bitcoin

ZetaChain is the first ever Universal Blockchain to enable native connection across all blockchain ecosystems.

48.8k Total ViewsPublished 2025.06.16Updated 2025.06.16

Meet ZetaChain: The Universal L1 for Apps That Work Everywhere — Even on Bitcoin

Fractal Bitcoin: Scaling Bitcoin as a Recursive System

Fractal Bitcoin is a Layer-1 scalability solution built on the Bitcoin core code, enabling infinite scalability through a recursive approach.

48.3k Total ViewsPublished 2025.06.30Updated 2025.06.30

Fractal Bitcoin: Scaling Bitcoin as a Recursive System

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.