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On Sunday, December 28, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near the $88,000 mark, approximately 1% lower than at the end of last week. Specialists have analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for Bitcoin's price movement in the coming days.
"The Crypto Market is Dependent on External Factors"
Financial Analyst at BitRiver, Vladislav Antonov
At the beginning of January, gold made a powerful surge above $4500, supported by geopolitical tensions and demand from central banks. The rhetoric of US President Donald Trump plays a particular role, who sharply escalated his tone on issues concerning Greenland and Iran, which intensified the flow of capital into safe havens.
On Saturday, January 10, trading was very calm. The BTC/USDt pair fell to $90,504, ETH/USDt — to $3086. Bitcoin spent the day in the range of $90,408 - $90,728. The market was resting; buyers and sellers were recovering.
By January 11, Bitcoin is trading in conditions of almost complete market calm. Despite the fact that stock indices and gold closed higher on Friday, market participants preferred to wait for Monday when the main platforms open. The reason is simple: the world is on the brink of a new geopolitical turn.
Donald Trump raised the stakes again, stating on the social network Truth Social that "Iran, perhaps more than ever, is striving for freedom" and that "the US is ready to help." This sounded like a signal, especially against the backdrop of reports from The New York Times that the White House is considering military strikes against Iran if the protests reach a tipping point.
This rhetoric was supported by Senator Lindsey Graham, who called the current regime in Iran a long nightmare that will soon end. Against this backdrop, investors are massively withdrawing funds from spot Bitcoin ETFs. From January 6 to 9, the outflow amounted to $1.378 billion, with the largest — $486 million — occurring on Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, the market lost another $398.8 million and $250 million, respectively.
The reasons are clear: risk appetite has sharply declined. First, there are fewer and fewer reasons to believe that the Fed will lower rates in the first quarter. Second, geopolitical instability is forcing investors to hide in safe assets. For a confident trend reversal in Bitcoin, either a return of institutional purchases through ETFs or a clear improvement in the macro background is needed. Neither is visible yet.
Technically, Bitcoin is trading around $90,000, and it's unclear whether it is weak or meditating, gathering strength. For now, models on intraday charts point to a decline. On the daily timeframe, there is a probability (55%) of recovering to $95,000.
The question is different: what will be the trigger for a fall or rise? The crypto market is dependent on external factors, and there are many of them right now, and it's unclear which one will knock the price out of the current range of $89,500–$92,000.
Looking at the daily chart, it can already be said that if buyers break through $95,000, the rise will accelerate to $103,500. Success depends on the winds created by Trump and the stock market.
Ahead is the week from January 12 to 18, which could be a turning point. Already on Tuesday, US inflation data will be released: the core and overall CPI for December (forecast +0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y). Any upward deviation will increase pressure on the markets — investors will begin to price in a tougher Fed policy, which will support the dollar and weaken risk assets, including BTC. Also on Tuesday, retail sales data for November will be known (+0.4% m/m forecast).
On Wednesday, attention will switch to the Fed's Beige Book, PPI, and the secondary housing market. On Thursday — business activity indices from the New York and Philadelphia Feds, as well as jobless claims (forecast 210 thousand).
Bitcoin seems frozen between fear and hope, between war and word, between data and conjecture. The price of $90,763 is not a support or resistance level, but rather a mirror of collective expectation.
"Volatility Hand in Hand with Uncertainty"
Lead Analyst at Bitget Research, Ryan Lee
The crypto market is at a crossroads. The situation is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, related both to economic macro indicators and the constantly changing geopolitical situation. It is this duality that opens up opportunities for completely different scenarios.
One of the main factors of pressure remains the geopolitical situation in oil-exporting countries, such as Venezuela and Iran. Any disruption in the extraction and export of raw materials threatens to affect world oil prices, leading to a new round of accelerating inflation. This means that the central banks of developed countries will be forced to continue a policy of strict control over the money supply, limiting the availability of cheap money and reducing incentives to buy risky assets, including Bitcoin and ETH.
Another factor of concern is the possible resumption of trade wars between the US and China. Investors fear that this will destroy the usual trade and monetary flows in the global economy and increase the cost of goods, provoking additional inflation growth. Such a development of events will create unfavorable conditions for digital assets, leading to capital flight into more familiar, traditional asset classes.
The uncertainty and fear of crypto investors is manifested in signals indicating an unwillingness to increase investments in cryptocurrencies. Recent data shows a massive outflow of funds from funds working with Bitcoin and ETH. In just the first week of January 2026, assets in Bitcoin ETFs decreased by $681 million, while a few weeks earlier there were significant inflows: on January 2, an inflow of $741 million was recorded, and on January 5 — another $697 million.
Spot ETFs based on Ethereum are behaving similarly. The largest cryptocurrency holders, whales, are showing cautious sentiment. There is an increase in transfers of significant volumes of Bitcoin and ETH to large crypto exchanges, which historically serves as a sign of preparation for sale or pledging cryptocurrencies as collateral for speculative operations. In the last reporting period alone, about $2.4 billion in BTC and ETH was received on Binance.
But there are also positive factors creating the ground for possible growth. Investors fear not only inflation but also stagflation — high inflation with a stalling economy. In such conditions, investors are looking for assets that would help them not only preserve but also increase capital. Cryptocurrencies, primarily Bitcoin, are seen by many market participants as a necessary hedging asset in every investment portfolio, which can mitigate the effect of depreciation due to inflation. Potentially, its growth could outpace inflation and help balance portfolios.
In the coming week, depending on investor sentiment, Bitcoin could either attempt to test the $95,000 level or lose the gains of previous weeks, correcting to $85,000. A situation where both events occur is also not excluded — volatility always goes hand in hand with uncertainty, so the range of fluctuations may widen. No positive factors for ETH are foreseen yet. "Ether" will most likely continue to trade just above $3000.
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