# Market Structure Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Market Structure", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

When "Old Maps" No Longer Apply: A Review of 8 Failed Classic Crypto Metrics and the Structural Reasons Behind Them

Title: When "Old Maps" No Longer Apply: 8 Failed Classic Crypto Indicators and Their Structural Causes The crypto market in early 2026 is marked by confusion as traditional on-chain and technical indicators have collectively failed. This analysis examines eight key metrics that have lost predictive power and explores the underlying structural market shifts causing their obsolescence. The core findings reveal that institutionalization has fundamentally altered market microstructure. Bitcoin ETF inflows created sustained demand, breaking the pure halving-driven narrative. The 2024 halving's supply reduction became negligible against Bitcoin's multi-trillion dollar market cap. This institutional participation smoothed volatility from over 100% to ~50%, preventing the extreme moves needed to trigger indicators like the Pi Cycle Top (relying on 111-day/350-day MA crossover) and Rainbow Chart (based on logarithmic growth curves). The MVRV Z-Score failed as institutional buying raised the realized value floor, compressing its historical range. The "altcoin season" never materialized because ETF flows went exclusively to Bitcoin, not rotating to altcoins, while AI and precious metals diverted capital from crypto overall. The Fear & Greed Index became unreliable as institutional flows decoupled from retail sentiment. The NVT ratio malfunctioned as on-chain volume no longer represented real economic activity. Finally, PlanB's S2F model failed spectacularly (predicting $500K vs. $120K actual) by ignoring demand-side variables and the impossibility of exponential growth at Bitcoin's current scale. Ultimately, these indicators failed because they relied on outdated assumptions: extreme volatility, retail-driven markets, and pure on-chain data analysis. The market has transitioned from a digital commodity to a macro asset influenced by Federal Reserve policy and global liquidity rather than just halving cycles. Investors must understand these structural changes rather than seeking new universal indicators.

marsbit3h ago

When "Old Maps" No Longer Apply: A Review of 8 Failed Classic Crypto Metrics and the Structural Reasons Behind Them

marsbit3h ago

CLARITY Act Gains Momentum as SEC, CFTC Align and Senate Advances Crypto Rules

U.S. lawmakers and regulators are advancing efforts to establish a clearer regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. The CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025), which has passed the House and gained reported White House backing, aims to resolve the long-standing jurisdictional stalemate between the SEC and CFTC. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged Congress to pass the bill "this spring." Key developments include the Senate Agriculture Committee advancing its own market-structure bill, which builds upon the CLARITY Act. Furthermore, SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced that the SEC and CFTC are coordinating through "Project Crypto" to develop a clearer token classification approach, serving as a bridge until legislation is enacted. The push seeks to provide predictability for crypto exchanges, brokers, and issuers by defining regulatory oversight and reducing reliance on enforcement-driven interpretations. The end goal is a negotiated legislative package that creates a more stable and defined U.S. crypto framework.

ccn.com21h ago

CLARITY Act Gains Momentum as SEC, CFTC Align and Senate Advances Crypto Rules

ccn.com21h ago

Ripple CEO Predicts 80% Chance Crypto Market Structure Bill Signed By End Of April

Anticipation is building around the CLARITY Act, a key digital asset market structure bill. According to reports, the White House is considering new talks as soon as Thursday to address the contentious issue of stablecoin yields, a previous meeting having ended without agreement. Banking representatives are firmly against stablecoins offering yield or rewards. Despite this, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse expressed strong confidence that differences will be resolved. He estimates an 80% chance the bill will be signed into law by the end of April, arguing that regulatory clarity, even in an imperfect bill, is better than the current chaos for the crypto sector.

bitcoinistYesterday 01:33

Ripple CEO Predicts 80% Chance Crypto Market Structure Bill Signed By End Of April

bitcoinistYesterday 01:33

Worldcoin slips below $0.40 as whale dumps $5.7 mln WLD on Binance

Worldcoin (WLD) fell below $0.40, dropping to $0.38 amid a broader market pullback. A whale associated with Justin Bram sold 14.19 million WLD (worth $5.72 million) on Binance after receiving tokens from the WorldCoin Vesting Wallet. This large sale, along with a surge in exchange inflows, increased selling pressure and reduced the token's scarcity. Technical indicators show bearish momentum, with WLD trading below key moving averages. If sell-side pressure continues, WLD could decline further to $0.35. A trend reversal would require reclaiming the $0.41 to $0.46 resistance levels.

ambcryptoYesterday 22:01

Worldcoin slips below $0.40 as whale dumps $5.7 mln WLD on Binance

ambcryptoYesterday 22:01

White House Crypto Adviser Warns Time Is Running Out To Pass CLARITY Act

White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt warns that time is running out to pass the CLARITY Act, a key crypto market structure bill, as the 2026 midterm elections approach and political focus shifts. Bipartisan consensus remains elusive, with stablecoin regulation—particularly whether they should be allowed to offer yield—being a major sticking point. Banking industry leaders fear deposit outflows without clear rules. Despite delays, the administration continues to refine the proposal. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong remains optimistic, predicting legislation within months and calling for a "win-win" outcome for banks, crypto firms, and the public.

bitcoinist02/14 00:31

White House Crypto Adviser Warns Time Is Running Out To Pass CLARITY Act

bitcoinist02/14 00:31

Structural Weakness

Since recording an all-time high in early October, Bitcoin has entered a structurally weak phase, trading within a range bounded by the Realized Price near $55k and the True Market Mean around $79.2k. The market is currently testing the $60k–$72k accumulation range from H1 2024, where buyer support has emerged, but overhead supply and negative institutional flows pose significant resistance. Off-chain data shows broad de-risking, with Digital Asset Treasury flows turning negative and spot volume lacking sustained demand. Derivatives markets indicate reduced speculative activity, elevated implied volatility, and persistent demand for downside protection, reflecting a cautious and fragile sentiment. Without a strong catalyst or renewed institutional demand, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound with elevated volatility, as the market struggles to establish a durable foundation for upward momentum.

insights.glassnode02/11 18:28

Structural Weakness

insights.glassnode02/11 18:28

Coinbase listing fails to lift HYPE as market structure caps upside

Coinbase's announcement of a spot listing for Hyperliquid's HYPE token on February 5 failed to reverse its bearish trend, with the price falling over 7% to around $32.9. Despite typically being a positive catalyst, the listing was overshadowed by a weak market structure and broader altcoin weakness. HYPE has declined more than 40% from its peak near $58–60, with repeated rejections below the $35–38 resistance zone. The muted reaction reflects fragile altcoin sentiment, leverage unwinding, and risk aversion. Until HYPE reclaims the $38–40 level, rallies are likely to be sold into rather than trusted as trend reversals.

ambcrypto02/05 19:43

Coinbase listing fails to lift HYPE as market structure caps upside

ambcrypto02/05 19:43

How Senate Democrats pushed CLARITY Act approval odds to 72%

Following a reportedly positive and productive meeting among Senate Democrats, market optimism surged regarding the passage of the CLARITY Act, a key crypto market structure bill. Prediction market Polymarket showed approval odds jumping to 72% on February 4th. Journalists cited that the effort, once considered nearly dead, is now very much alive, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer described as "very desperate" to get the bill passed, influenced by a $193 million war chest from a crypto PAC ahead of elections. A critical White House-led negotiation is ongoing, with a end-of-February deadline set to resolve the key sticking point: stablecoin yields. If a compromise is reached, a Senate committee vote could occur in March. Market odds have fluctuated, briefly dipping to 64%, but analysts believe the bill's progress could help stabilize the crypto market.

ambcrypto02/05 12:01

How Senate Democrats pushed CLARITY Act approval odds to 72%

ambcrypto02/05 12:01

Tiger Research: The Next Bull Market, Waiting for the Wind

Tiger Research analyzes whether the crypto market is currently in a "crypto winter" and outlines the conditions for the next bull run. Unlike previous bear markets triggered by internal crises (Mt. Gox hack, ICO crackdown, FTX collapse), the current downturn is driven by external factors like macro policies and tariffs, while internal fundamentals remain intact. The market has structurally split into three layers: a regulated sector (stable, institutional), an unregulated sector (speculative, experimental), and shared infrastructure (e.g., stablecoins, oracles). ETF inflows remain confined to Bitcoin and do not trickle down to altcoins. The next bull market requires: 1) a "killer app" emerging from the unregulated sector (e.g., AI agents, InfoFi), and 2) favorable macro conditions like liquidity injections. The era of broad-based rallies is over; growth will be segmented between regulated stability and unregulated volatility.

比推02/04 19:22

Tiger Research: The Next Bull Market, Waiting for the Wind

比推02/04 19:22

Crypto Market Structure Bill Nears Key Moment As CFTC Chair Signals Progress Within Months

Newly appointed CFTC Chair Michael Selig advocates for the passage of the crypto market structure bill (CLARITY Act), arguing it could establish the U.S. as the global "gold standard" in crypto regulation. He emphasizes that the legislation would provide long-needed clarity by defining a token taxonomy and clarifying regulatory jurisdictions, challenging the current approach of treating most digital assets as securities. Selig believes the bill could reach President Trump's desk within months, aided by executive support. Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are planning a closed-door meeting to discuss the bill, which recently stalled in the Senate Banking Committee due to industry opposition, despite passing in the Agriculture Committee.

bitcoinist02/04 19:03

Crypto Market Structure Bill Nears Key Moment As CFTC Chair Signals Progress Within Months

bitcoinist02/04 19:03

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