美联储偏鸽,巨鲸拉高出货

Foresight ResearchPublished on 2022-12-05Last updated on 2022-12-05

Abstract

货币流动性有所放松。美国11月就业数据不及预期,强化市场鸽派预期。

市场观点

1、宏观流动性

货币流动性有所放松。美国11月就业数据不及预期,强化市场鸽派预期。油价大跌到9个月新低,市场担心经济衰退。鲍威尔暗示最早12月放慢加息,12月加息50个基点的市场押注升至77%,此前为66%。美股受到提振反弹,美元指数转跌。Crypto与美股小幅脱钩。

2、全市场行情

市值排名前100涨幅榜:

本周加密市场小幅反弹,BTC上涨3%,ETH上涨9%。借贷机构Blockfi因为FTX交易所破产,Nexo也有破产传言。

1) APE:

将在12月5日开始质押模式。同样即将开始质押的还有LINK和CHZ。质押会短期改变代币供需关系。但是NANSEN上的聪明钱持续卖出APE,如巨鲸黄立成在高位卖出20万个APE,似乎这段时间的上涨是为帮助大资金出货而活跃市场流动性。

2)DOGE:

市场猜测推特2.0支付会有加密功能的新变化。推特与苹果因为30%的垄断定价有争执,苹果一度威胁要下架推特。马斯克要和苹果对抗,或自己做手机。后来马斯克受邀参观苹果总部,与苹果逐渐和解。

3)HT:

火币交易所开放国人注册,并要做新的IEO多米尼克币,新用户将获得多米尼克数字身份KYC,并有机会获得多米尼克护照。

4)FTM:

AC称FTM链每年收入1000万美元,自身盈利,主要依靠卖币。FTM链借贷协议GEIST从10月BNB黑客存币以来大涨5倍。

3、BTC行情

1)链上数据

矿工继续投降。来自BTC矿工的抛压持续打压市场价格,这周卖出4千多枚BTC,形成2022年以来的第四次抛售高峰。当BTC价格从20000美元降到16000美元后,矿工向交易所转账行为更加频繁。

长期趋势指标MVRV-ZScore以市场总成本作为依据,反映市场总体盈利状态。当指标大于6时,是顶部区间;当指标小于2时,是底部区间。MVRV跌破关键水平1,持有者总体上处于亏损状态。当前指标为-0.22,处于绿色抄底区间。

2)期货行情

期货资金费率:本周费率略为负,市场没有明显的多空趋势。费率0.05-0.1%,多头杠杆较多,是市场短期顶部;费率-0.1-0%,空头杠杆较多,是市场短期底部。

期货持仓量:本周总持仓量小幅提升,情绪依然低迷。

期货多空比:1.6。散户抄底居多,市场可能还不是底部。多空比数据波动大,参考意义有所削弱。

3)现货行情

在经历几周混乱之后,BTC市场继续盘整。大趋势仍是熊市,会有日线级别小反弹,但反弹不是反转。市场反转信号需要看到稳定币市值增长,代表有真金白银的新资金入场。

市场数据:

1. 公链总锁仓量情况

本周TVL总量上升$0.63b,整体单周涨幅为1.5%。其中,Ethereum的TVL上升3.72%。Solana在连续三周下跌后,本周上涨6.97%,但TVL仅占比0.72%。BSC在本周跌幅为4.02%,Layer2的公链Arbitrum上涨2.25%,polygon上涨0.94%,avalanche上涨3.18%,Optimism下跌1.16%

1)ETH锁仓量情况

2) BSC锁仓量情况:

3)Tr

on锁仓量情况

4)Solana锁仓量情况

5)Avalanche锁仓量情况

6)Polygon锁仓量情况

7)Arbitrum锁仓量情况

8)Optimism锁仓量情况

4. ETH Gas fee历史情况

本周gas较上周变化不大。当前链上转账平均费用约为$0.43,Uniswap交易平均费用约为$3.74,Opensea的平均交易费用约为$1.45。截止2022年12月01日,Optimism的Sequencer和Arbitrum的Sequencer3在过去24h内交易活跃度跃在前两位,分别消耗15.21Eth和12.1Eth。

5. NFT市场数据变化

NFT-500市值:

NFT市场交易概览:

各交易市场交易笔数:

买卖情况(钱包维度)

新老用户

NFT总市值较上周继续小幅上升。头部的蓝筹nft项目基本都在下跌。其中mutant ape和bored ape在上周上涨后开始回跌,3天内跌幅分别是7.96%和4.17%。KillAbears NFT涨幅最大为77%。

钱包地址交易情况较上周活跃度下降。其中buying下跌9.5%,selling下降5.6%。NFT交易的老用户自9月中旬开始持续降低,但近两周老用户有回升的趋势,新用户呈现下降趋势。NFT老用户数量在9月中旬达到峰值10万,近两月持续振荡下降。本周单日交易老客数量较上周上升19.6%,新客较上周下降19.4%。截止11月29日,单日交易的老客数为3.4万左右,新客约为5k。

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