(51/52) Weekly Market Watch | 5th Week of December | The Final Week of Tax-Loss Harvesting

marsbitPublished on 2025-12-29Last updated on 2025-12-29

Abstract

**Weekly Market Watch: 5th Week of December - The Final Week of Tax-Loss Harvesting** **Market Overview & Key News:** The final week of December saw increased market volatility due to the holiday period and the expiration of major options contracts, though a clear directional trend was absent. Bitcoin closed the week nearly flat, with a marginal gain of 0.55%, while trading volume hit its lowest weekly level since July. Normal trading activity and liquidity are expected to resume after the New Year. **Macro Outlook: Strategic Commodity Clash** A significant development was China's announcement that, starting January 1, 2026, it will require special permits for white silver exports. This move is anticipated to have a major impact on global metal supply chains. In the US, October durable goods orders fell 2.2%, worse than the expected -1.5%. However, Q3 GDP growth was revised up to a strong 4.3%, significantly higher than the forecasted 3.3%, indicating resilience in consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure. **Key Upcoming Economic Event:** * December 31st, 3:00 AM EST: Release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes. **Weekly Crypto Roundup:** * **Institutional Moves:** Morgan Stanley is reportedly exploring offering crypto trading services (including spot and derivatives) to its institutional clientele. A major Russian bank executed the country's first crypto-backed loan, providing funds to a Bitcoin miner. * **Exchange Developments:** Coinbase announced the acqui...

Hot News: The Final Week of Tax-Loss Harvesting

  • Affected by the holiday period and the expiration of major options last Friday, market volatility intensified, but there is a lack of clear directional conviction. Bitcoin closed basically flat this week, with a slight increase of 0.55%, setting the lowest weekly trading volume since July. The market expects trading activity and liquidity to return to normal after the New Year.

Macro Outlook: Strategic Conflict in Commodities

  • Starting from January 1, 2026, the Chinese government will require special permits for silver exports. This move is expected to have a significant impact on the global metal supply chain.

  • U.S. durable goods orders in October fell by 2.2%, lower than the market expectation of -1.5%. However, U.S. third-quarter GDP grew by 4.3%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 3.3%, indicating resilience in consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure.

Upcoming Economic Calendar Includes:

  • Wednesday, December 31, 3:00 AM: FOMC Meeting Minutes

Weekly Cryptocurrency Overview: Aave DAO vs. Aave Labs

  • According to reports, Morgan Stanley is exploring the provision of cryptocurrency trading services for its institutional client base, including spot and derivative markets.

  • Russian banking giant Sberbank executed the country's first cryptocurrency-collateralized loan, providing funding to Bitcoin miner Intelion Data.

  • Coinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company to strengthen its predictive market products. The transaction is expected to be completed in January 2026.

  • Kraken announced plans to enter the predictive market space, aiming to launch the service in 2026.

  • Travel giant Ctrip has integrated stablecoin payments, allowing global users to book travel services using digital assets.

  • Strategy increased its reserves by $748 million, bringing its total cash holdings to $2.19 billion, in addition to holding 671,268 BTC.

Layer 1 and Layer 2 Networks

  • The Solana Foundation launched Kora, an audited fee intermediary and signature node designed to enable gas-free transactions and secure remote signing.

  • Polygon announced that major payment processor Shift4 has launched stablecoin settlement on its network, providing 24/7 payment services to tens of thousands of merchants.

  • Spire Labs deployed the first Base-based application chain on Celo, utilizing Self Protocol's privacy-preserving "human proof" to resist Sybil attacks.

  • Flow Network suffered an attack due to a layer vulnerability, resulting in a loss of $3.9 million.

Dapps

  • Hyperliquid launched an investment portfolio margin feature on its mainnet, with initial conservative limits and added a BLP yield feature on its Earn page.

  • The Polymarket team has indicated that developing and launching its dedicated layer 2 network is now the platform's primary task.

  • Kamino Finance launched PRIME, a new yield primitive on Solana offering an 8% low-correlation APY, backed by real-world HELOC credit provided by Figure.

  • GMX is now live on the Ethereum mainnet, allowing users to trade over 100 perpetual contract markets, trade on 23 spot markets, and provide liquidity through GM or GLV.

  • Maple Finance facilitated its largest single loan of 500 million USDC.

  • Resolv announced the expansion of its arbitrage market assets to HYPE on Hyperliquid and SOL on Binance Exchange, with an initial allocation of 10%.

  • Hinkal Protocol partnered with Resolv Labs to provide private trading for USR and RLP.

  • Mellow Protocol will integrate Fluid and Resolv on Plasma into its stRATEGY vault, allowing for modular institutional vault access without the need for custom engineering.

  • F(x) Protocol launched FX100 Perp, a new decentralized perpetual contract trading platform featuring non-liquidatable positions (positions will be rebalanced to reduce leverage) and leverage of up to 100x.

  • The ZK processor protocol Brevis released the tokenomics of its BREV token, which will serve as the payment, collateral, and governance token for the ProverNet market.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

  • The governance proposal for Aave DAO to take control of the Aave brand assets has been rejected.

  • The Uniswap community passed the Unification proposal and burned 1 billion UNI, and will activate the fee switch and implement other protocol changes after the timelock.

  • LayerZero's third fee switch public vote failed to reach quorum, meaning the protocol fees will remain closed for at least another six months.

  • The Bitcoin community is engaged in intense debate over the potential threat of quantum computing to the Bitcoin network. Among them, BIP-360 was introduced into the discussion to implement an anti-quantum signature solution.

Token Unlocks

  • IO tokens will unlock on December 31, accounting for 6.09% of the supply.

  • KMNO tokens will unlock on December 31, accounting for 6.92% of the supply.

  • EIGEN tokens will unlock on January 1, accounting for 7.52% of the supply.

  • LA tokens will unlock on January 5, accounting for 5.94% of the supply.

  • MOVE tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 5.78% of the supply.

  • LINEA tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 6% of the supply.

  • HOME tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 4.16% of the supply.

  • RAIN tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 11% of the supply.

  • US tokens will unlock on January 10, accounting for 6.32% of the supply.

  • BB tokens will unlock on January 13, accounting for 10.9% of the supply.

  • ZKC tokens will unlock on January 15, accounting for 6.71% of the supply.

Click here to subscribe to the Weekly Market Insights and Exclusive Research.

Related Questions

QWhat is the main reason for the increased market volatility mentioned in the article?

AThe increased volatility is attributed to the holiday period and the expiration of major options contracts from the previous week, though there is a lack of clear directional conviction.

QWhat significant policy change by the Chinese government is expected to impact the global metal supply chain starting January 1, 2026?

AThe Chinese government will require special permits for white silver exports, which is expected to have a significant impact on the global metal supply chain.

QWhich company announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company to enhance its prediction market products?

ACoinbase announced the acquisition of The Clearing Company to strengthen its prediction market products, with the transaction expected to be completed by January 2026.

QWhat new feature did Hyperliquid launch on its mainnet according to the article?

AHyperliquid launched an investment portfolio margin feature on its mainnet, with initial conservative limits, and added a BLP yield feature to its Earn page.

QWhich token is scheduled to unlock on January 1st, representing 7.52% of its supply?

AThe EIGEN token is scheduled to unlock on January 1st, representing 7.52% of its supply.

Related Reads

Saylor's Purchase of 1550 Bitcoin Is a Bad Trade

**Title: Saylor's Purchase of 1,550 Bitcoins Was a Bad Trade** The article critically analyzes Strategy's recent move of selling 32 bitcoins followed by a much larger purchase of 1,550 bitcoins. While appearing bullish, the author argues this trade is detrimental to MSTR shareholders. The core argument revolves around the concept of "breakeven modified Net Asset Value (mNAV)," a key metric for Strategy. To increase Bitcoin per share (BPS) for MSTR holders, Strategy must issue new shares at a premium high enough that the funds raised can buy more bitcoin than the bitcoin backing each existing share. Currently, this breakeven mNAV is estimated at 1.30. The recent trade failed on two counts: 1. The shares for the $181 million raise were issued at an mNAV *below* the 1.30 breakeven point. Selling "cheap" shares to buy bitcoin actually *reduces* BPS. 2. Only $101.3 million of the raised funds were used to buy bitcoin; the rest went to boost the company's dollar reserves. The breakeven mNAV calculation assumes *100%* of proceeds are used for bitcoin purchases. Diverting funds, even if mNAV were high, dilutes BPS. The result is an estimated 0.19% decrease in Bitcoin per share for MSTR holders. In exchange, Strategy merely extended its operational runway for its dollar reserves from ~6.3 months to 7 months. The author interprets this as Strategy prioritizing the survival and development of its STRC business over its stated core goal of increasing MSTR's BPS. This constitutes a gamble: if sacrificing MSTR value leads to improved market sentiment and a recovery in STRC's price (and thus mNAV), the whole system could work. If not, Strategy may be forced into a cycle of further diluting MSTR to stay afloat, potentially leading to deferred STRC dividends or corporate decline. The article concludes with a hope for price recovery for Bitcoin, MSTR, and STRC.

Foresight News14m ago

Saylor's Purchase of 1550 Bitcoin Is a Bad Trade

Foresight News14m ago

The AI Bear Market Lasting Two Days Is Over; Why Did Funds Buy Back Storage Stocks First?

After a severe two-day selloff in early June that erased over $1 trillion from U.S. chip stock market value, capital is flowing back first to the memory sector. The correction was not driven by a collapse in AI demand but rather a market reassessment of high expectations. Stocks like Broadcom faced selling pressure despite strong AI revenue guidance, signaling a shift in focus from who has an "AI story" to who can most rapidly translate AI demand into verifiable profits and earnings per share (EPS). Memory companies, such as Micron and SK Hynix, are leading the recovery because their EPS growth is more immediately verifiable. The AI server boom directly increases demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-capacity server DRAM, tightening supply and driving up contract prices for conventional DRAM and NAND Flash. This price increase, coupled with a shift to higher-margin products, flows directly into near-term revenue and profitability, as evidenced in recent earnings reports. In contrast, other AI semiconductor segments like GPUs, ASICs, and optical modules, while central to the long-term AI infrastructure story, face longer and less certain paths to EPS validation. Their growth depends more on future product cycles, customer adoption timelines, and capital expenditure plans. The rebound in memory stocks highlights a market preference for assets with shorter, more transparent EPS conversion cycles following the recent de-risking phase. However, this does not negate the potential of other AI hardware segments should they provide clearer near-term order visibility. The episode has raised the validation bar for all AI-related investments.

marsbit14m ago

The AI Bear Market Lasting Two Days Is Over; Why Did Funds Buy Back Storage Stocks First?

marsbit14m ago

Monera Digital|Crypto Market May Report: Four Major Reasons Behind the Accelerated Decline

Monera Digital Crypto Market May Report: Four Key Reasons Behind the Accelerated Decline The crypto market experienced a significant downturn in May, driven by an internal liquidity crisis rather than external macro factors. Bitcoin fell from around $82,850 to $73,674, even as traditional markets rallied in the final week, highlighting a clear "liquidity transmission failure" specific to crypto. Four primary internal factors caused the accelerated sell-off: 1. **Major ETF Outflows:** U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $2.425 billion for the month, the third-largest monthly withdrawal since their launch. Ethereum ETFs also reversed to net outflows. This turned a key pillar of the bull run into a source of selling pressure. 2. **Holder Capitulation:** On-chain data showed textbook "surrender" patterns. The Short-Term Holder MVRV ratio fell below 1.0, indicating this cohort is now in aggregate loss. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric also deteriorated significantly. 3. **Contagious Negative Sentiment:** The Coinbase Premium Index, which shows U.S. institutional buying/selling pressure, turned deeply negative for most of the month. This confirmed the ETF outflows and reflected a strategic shift away from crypto toward assets like U.S. Treasuries. 4. **Leverage Unwinding and Psychological Breaks:** Despite the downturn, futures open interest initially grew, signaling leveraged positioning. This culminated in a sharp deleveraging event with $307 million in long liquidations. Furthermore, the price broke below the critical $75K-$76K support zone, which is both a key gamma option level and the approximate average cost basis for major public companies holding Bitcoin, turning them from potential buyers into potential sellers. The report concludes that the market's pricing power has shifted from macro narratives to internal liquidation. While Bitcoin's 200-week moving average quantile has entered a historical "value zone" at 10.2%, this indicates a deep bear market reset is underway, not an immediate reversal. A sustainable recovery will require both a genuine improvement in the macro liquidity environment and clear signs of renewed on-chain demand, such as ETF inflows resuming and the Coinbase Premium turning positive. Until then, discipline and capital preservation are paramount.

marsbit25m ago

Monera Digital|Crypto Market May Report: Four Major Reasons Behind the Accelerated Decline

marsbit25m ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

HTX Learn: Learn Hot Cryptos to Share 50,000 USDT​

To enhance your understanding of this week's featured cryptos, we are rolling out various rewarding events. Join them now and bring home generous rewards through learning and trading.

21.5k Total ViewsPublished 2026.04.29Updated 2026.04.30

HTX Learn: Learn Hot Cryptos to Share 50,000 USDT​

HTX Learn: Learn Hot Tokens to Share 1000 USDT​

To enhance your understanding of this week's featured cryptos, we are rolling out various rewarding events. Join them now and bring home generous rewards through learning and trading.

20.6k Total ViewsPublished 2026.05.21Updated 2026.05.21

HTX Learn: Learn Hot Tokens to Share 1000 USDT​

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of HOT (HOT) are presented below.

活动图片