50 Million USDT for 35,000 USD worth of AAVE: How Did the Disaster Happen? And Who Should We Blame?

Odaily星球日报Published on 2026-03-13Last updated on 2026-03-13

Abstract

In a catastrophic DeFi transaction, a user swapped 50.43 million aEthUSDT (Aave interest-bearing USDT) for only 327.24 aEthAAVE (worth ~$35,900), resulting in a near-total loss of value. The transaction was a collateral swap executed via CoW Protocol’s settlement system and Aave’s interface. The failure occurred due to a deeply flawed routing path: after redeeming USDT from Aave, the funds were routed through a highly liquid Uniswap V3 USDT/WETH pool (correctly executing the first swap). However, the entire amount of ~17,958 WETH was then sent to a tiny SushiSwap V2 AAVE/WETH pool with only ~331 AAVE and ~17.65 WETH in reserves. The massive trade drained 99.9% of the pool's AAVE, resulting in an effective execution price of ~$154,114 per AAVE—over 1000x worse than market price. Critical systemic failures were identified: 1. Aave’s interface requested a CoW quote without including critical hook metadata, leading to an inaccurate quote. 2. CoW’s solver competition logic deemed any quote with non-zero output and positive gas cost as "valid," with no sanity checks against market price or liquidity depth. 3. The routing algorithm modeled the tiny SushiSwap pool as a valid execution venue purely based on its constant-product formula, ignoring the economic absurdity. 4. Aave’s UI only provided a soft warning (a checkbox) for high price impact instead of a hard stop. The lost value was instantly arbitraged in the next block, benefiting MEV searchers and block builders. The co...

Article from: @Ehsan1579

Compiled | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina); Translator | Ethan (@ethanzhang_web 3)

Judging by the headline alone, one might mistakenly think this was an exploit attack.

The core of the event is: Someone exchanged USDT worth 50.4 million dollars and ended up with AAVE worth only 35.9 thousand dollars.

When I first heard about this, I was truly shocked. Therefore, I thoroughly dissected the entire event: transaction tracing, solver path, contract calls, historical reserves, settlement data, adapter flow, Aave interface code, CoW flash loan SDK, and the routing code that determines if a quote is "reasonable".

This was not a hack.​ The Aave core protocol did not malfunction. The CoW settlement did not malfunction. Uniswap did not malfunction. SushiSwap did not malfunction. The transaction was valid, the signature was valid, all contracts executed strictly according to their code. Yet, almost all economic value was destroyed simply because it was allowed to take an utterly absurd route.

The public chain did not fail; the routing did.

In my view, brushing this off as a simple "user error" is not an objective or rigorous stance. Admittedly, the user signed the order, but the entire software system actually allowed an operation involving nearly 50 million dollars in collateral rotation to complete the quoting, signing, routing, and final execution, with the entire process pointing to a low-liquidity pool holding only about 331 AAVE. This should have been completely impossible, or at the very least, it should have been firmly intercepted and rejected before the settlement process even began.

Tracing the Core Information of the Transaction

The hash of this anomalous transaction is: 0x9fa9feab3c1989a33424728c23e6de07a40a26a98ff7ff5139f3492ce430801f, confirmed on the Ethereum mainnet at block height 24643151 on March 12, 2026, with transaction index 1, consuming 3,780,570 units of Gas, and the transaction executed successfully. The order belonged to wallet address starting with 0x98b9, and the actual solver (transaction sender) address was starting with 0x3980, marked as 'tsolver' in CoW competition data.

First, understand that this was not a simple USDT to AAVE swap at the wallet level. The sold token was aEthUSDT, the interest-bearing USDT deposit certificate on the Aave platform. The bought token was aEthAAVE, the interest-bearing AAVE deposit certificate on the Aave platform. So, this was actually a collateral rotation on Aave conducted through the CoW protocol's settlement system and its flash loan adapter flow.

Before the transaction, the wallet held approximately 50,432,693.075254 aEthUSDT and 0 aEthAAVE. After the transaction, it only had 4.980399 aEthUSDT left and received 327.241335505966487788 aEthAAVE. Effectively, the wallet sold almost its entire position.

Metadata more clearly shows that the route was "toxic" before execution. The order came from the aave-v3-interface-collateral-swap flow. CoW's API displays it as a signed sell order, and the app metadata marks it as a market-style collateral swap using 121 basis points of intelligent slippage. The signed sell amount was 50,432,688.41618 aEthUSDT. The signed minimum buy amount was 324.949260918413591035 aEthAAVE. The actual settlement paid 327.241335505966487788 aEthAAVE.

This is an extremely important detail. This order was never expecting to receive thousands of AAVE, only to be destroyed midway. It was built from the start around an outcome of just over three hundred AAVE.

The Complete Chain of the Routing Collapse

Once you follow the transaction trace, the whole process becomes brutally straightforward.

The top-level fund flow relies on the CoW protocol's GPv2Settlement contract starting with 0x9008. First, the HooksTrampoline contract starting with 0x60bf performs the aEthUSDT authorization, allowing the CoW vault relayer to extract user assets without a separate transaction authorization; subsequently, the GPv2VaultRelayer contract starting with 0xc92e extracts 50,432,688.41618 aEthUSDT from the user's wallet into the settlement process. Up to this point, all operations followed normal logic.

The settlement contract then grants aEthUSDT operation permissions to an unverified auxiliary contract starting with 0xd524 and initiates a call via function selector 0x494b3137; this auxiliary contract then transfers execution permissions to an unverified executor contract starting with 0x699c. At this point, the full picture of the anomalous transaction route is completely exposed.

The first effective call points to the Aave pool contract starting with 0x87870, using the withdraw function (selector 0x69328dec) to burn aEthUSDT and redeem the underlying native USDT; the route then jumps to the deep USDT/WETH trading pool on Uniswap V3 starting with 0x4e68, exchanging all 50,432,688.41618 USDT for 17,957.810805702142342238 WETH.

This stage of the transaction was completely normal: the exchange rate was approximately 2808.4 USDT for 1 WETH, consistent with the market rate at the time, with no liquidity issues or calculation deviations. The first hop of the transaction chain showed no abnormalities.

The problem occurred in the second hop. Once you see the liquidity reserves, the rest of the story becomes inevitable.

After obtaining 17,957.810805702142342238 WETH, the executor transfers all funds into the SushiSwap V2 AAVE/WETH trading pool at address 0xd75ea151a61d06868e31f8988d28dfe5e9df57b4.

I checked the historical liquidity reserve data of this trading pool just before the anomalous transaction occurred (block height 24643150). The pool held only:

331.631982538108027323 AAVE, 17.653276196397688066 WETH

This is not a data entry error but a hard fact.

This trading route injected nearly 17,958 WETH entirely into a micro trading pool that only reserved 17.65 WETH, with a corresponding total AAVE inventory of only 331.63. The input volume of WETH was about 1017 times the WETH reserve in the pool.

This was not a routine issue of "high slippage" or "slightly thin liquidity" but an extremely absurd market order execution path, equivalent to forcing a constant product AMM pool of极小 volume to undertake a huge transaction thousands of times its own size.

The AMM trading pool executed the operation according to its algorithm, nearly exhausting the entire AAVE reserve in the pool.

The SushiSwap pair triggered the core Swap event: the executor transferred in 17,957.810805702142342238 WETH and received only 331.305315608938235428 AAVE in return. After the transaction, the remaining liquidity in the pool was approximately:

0.326666929169791895 AAVE, 17,975.464081898540030304 WETH

Simply put, about 99.9%​ of the AAVE inventory in the pool was drained in one go.

Based on the pre-trade reserves, the pool's implied AAVE price was approximately $149.50. The user's actual execution price was about 154,114.66​ USDT per AAVE. This is over 1000 times worse than the spot price before the trade.

Next, these AAVE were supplied back to the Aave pool using selector 0x617ba037, i.e., supply(address,uint256,address,uint16). The result was newly minted aEthAAVE sent back to the settlement contract. The settlement contract finally transferred 327.241335505966487788 aEthAAVE to the user. Approximately 4.06398010297174764 aEthAAVE remained in the settlement contract as surplus relative to what the user paid for.

So, the settlement did not suddenly twist a good execution result into a bad one. It merely finalized the result that the route had already produced.

This is a key point worth stating explicitly:​ The catastrophic result was "pre-set" within the route before it was even executed.

Within the embedded auxiliary contract call data of the route, the target amount on the buy side was approximately 331.272185078031026739, the user's signed agreed minimum buy amount was 324.949260918413591035, and the actual settlement amount was 327.241335505966487788. All core values were locked at the level of just over three hundred AAVE before settlement.

This route was born bad.

Where is the Vulnerability?

The answer is: Every layer of the system's verification mechanism was checking the wrong dimensions.

All layers only verified whether the transaction was executable, the signature was valid, and the amount was non-zero. Yet, almost no core layer verified whether the transaction route was economically reasonable. This is the root cause of the mechanism failure.

Code Defect in the Aave Interface Adapter Quote Path

The first obvious code anomaly appears in the CoW adapter quote flow of the Aave interface: the function originally used to attach adapter-specific application data when requesting a quote was directly and forcibly disabled.

Source: rates.helpers.ts:93 and adapters.helpers.ts:194

This means that when the Aave interface requests a quote from CoW, it does not attach the flash loan and hook metadata that would actually be attached when the order is published. In other words, what is being quoted is not exactly what will be executed. The code comment even says the purpose of this helper function is to make adapter quotes more precise, yet this function was hard-disabled.

CoW Quote Competition Logic's Reasonableness Judgment is Too Weak (Core Vulnerability)

The second and most serious problem lies in the quote competition logic of the CoW protocol: in its public service code, as long as the quoted Gas fee is positive and the output amount is non-zero, it is judged as a "reasonable quote".

Source: quote.rs:31

For a routing system handling eight-figure orders, this is an astonishingly weak definition of "reasonableness".

The system did not integrate oracles for price sanity checks, had no interception mechanism for "quotes deviating more than 500 times from the spot price", no risk assessment for "routes that would completely drain a liquidity pool", no early warning for "severe mismatch between the last hop's liquidity and the order size"; it only required the solver return an executable, non-zero routing solution for it to be accepted by the system. This is the core vulnerability of this incident.

Defect in Uniswap V2-style Liquidity Modeling Logic

The third problem lies in the modeling method of Uniswap V2-style liquidity pools: the code only uses the standard constant product algorithm, only rejecting mathematically impossible situations like zero reserves, underflow, overflow, etc., without performing economic feasibility checks.

Source: pool_fetching.rs:118 and pool_fetching.rs:153

This code does not judge whether the liquidity pool's size is sufficient to handle the corresponding route transaction; it only judges whether the swap operation is mathematically valid. Therefore, even a micro pool reserving only 331 AAVE would be judged as a valid venue for a buy order of 17,957 WETH, simply because the constant product algorithm could calculate a non-zero result, completely ignoring that this result would cause devastating asset loss.

Secondary Failure of Flash Loan SDK and Order Verification Mechanism

Subsequently, the flash loan SDK directly solidified this invalid quote into the execution payload of the order and hooks, without any secondary risk blocking.

Then:

Source: index.js:484 and index.js:591

This is why I keep saying this route was "born bad". The adapter layer did not "discover" a new bad amount during execution. It serialized the already quoted bad amount into the hook data and the determined instance address. Once the bad quote existed, the rest of the mechanism faithfully passed it down.

Even CoW's order validation logic did not truly protect the user here because it only checks if the order exceeds the market price at the time of quoting, not whether the quote itself is absurd relative to actual liquidity.

Source: order_validation.rs:694

This is a consistency check. If the quote itself is already nonsense, the order can still pass.

UI Front-end Warning Mechanism is Merely Cosmetic

The Aave interface does have a high price impact warning, but it is not a hard circuit breaker. When the value loss exceeds 20%, it becomes a confirmation checkbox.

Once the user checks the box, the obstacle is cleared:

Source: helpers.ts:24 and HighPriceImpactWarning.tsx:35

Therefore, even though this transaction would nearly wipe out the entire asset value, the system only judged it as an operation requiring user confirmation, rather than a high-risk transaction that the system must firmly reject. The warning mechanism completely lost its risk interception function.

Based on all the above mechanism failures, I absolutely do not agree with the perfunctory conclusion that "this is just the user being stupid". The user did sign, but the entire software system had countless opportunities to intercept this disaster, yet each layer only performed basic checks,判定 "non-zero, executable, signed" and then directly let it pass,最终酿成恶果 (finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿成恶果 - finally酿极恶果 - eventually leading to the disastrous outcome).

The Route Was Not Tampered With

This step is crucial, directly ruling out many erroneous guesses: the Aave official interface flow corresponding to aave-v3-interface-collateral-swap, in the file useSwapOrderAmounts.ts at line 139, combines the quote, network fees, partner fees, and flash loan fees to calculate the slippage-adjusted buy amount; line 331 converts it into a buyAmountBigInt value; subsequently, in the file CollateralSwapActionsViaCoWAdapters.tsx at line 191, this amount is accurately signed.

The subsequent adapter contract will, in AaveV3BaseAdapter.sol at line 141, verify that the signed order fields完全匹配 the stored values; the CoW settlement contract will, in GPv2Settlement.sol at line 337, strictly enforce the limits agreed upon in the signature. Therefore, the on-chain execution result did not exceed the scope allowed by the signed order; the user actually received assets even higher than the signed agreed minimum limit.

This is enough to prove: The disaster occurred before the settlement环节, not during the settlement process. The fatal flaw of the route had already predetermined the outcome.

Where Did the Lost Value Go?

The very next transaction in the same block (hash starting with 0x45388b0f) performed a backrun arbitrage on the destroyed SushiSwap AAVE/WETH pool. After the anomalous transaction stuffed the pool with a huge amount of WETH and drained绝大部分 AAVE, the arbitrageur immediately sold AAVE back into the pool, harvesting the excess value brought by the liquidity imbalance.

This backrun arbitrage extracted approximately 17,929.770158685933 WETH, then paid approximately 13,087.73 ETH to the builder of this block and approximately 4,824.31 ETH to the arbitrage execution address.

All the economic value lost by the user was almost instantly transformed into MEV arbitrage profits and block builder rewards within the same block.

Additionally, checking the block-level timeline confirms: No one maliciously manipulated the SushiSwap trading pool to set a trap for the user before the transaction; this AAVE/WETH trading pair was touched for the first time by this anomalous transaction (transaction index 1); the very next transaction (transaction index 2) performed the first backrun on the price distortion caused by this transaction; transaction index 3 also touched this trading pair during the market correction process. The timeline clearly confirms: This anomalous transaction created an extremely distorted price, and subsequent transactions directly harvested the收益 from this distortion.

So, Who is to Blame?

If you ask if the Aave V3 core protocol broke, the answer is no. The Aave pool executed operations exactly as instructed, normally completing the USDT redemption and AAVE deposit processes.

If you ask if CoW's GPv2Settlement contract broke, the answer is no. The settlement enforced a valid signed order and paid an amount higher than the signed minimum.

If you ask if the Uniswap V3 or SushiSwap trading pair contracts broke, the answer is also no. Both types of trading pools priced the交易 according to their own algorithmic rules.

The real systemic failure occurred at the higher levels of routing and risk control:

The primary responsible party is the CoW protocol's routing, quoting, and solver modules: The entire system's criteria for judging a "reasonable route" were too weak, allowing a tens-of-millions-of-dollars order to最终 flow into a micro, low-liquidity pool, accepting it as long as the route was executable and non-zero, completely ignoring the extreme economic irrationality.

The secondary responsible party is the Aave front-end interface: When requesting adapter quotes, it did not attach the associated application data for the hooks, directly passing the wrong result into the signing process, and relied solely on warning prompts without a hard rejection mechanism. For such extreme large-value transactions, these risk control measures were completely insufficient to prevent risk.

This was an extreme failure in trade route quality and risk control guardrails, directly turning a legitimate and compliant collateral rotation operation into a devastating asset loss event.

Related Questions

QWhat was the core issue that led to the catastrophic loss of value in the transaction?

AThe core issue was a systemic failure in the routing and risk control layers. The CoW protocol's routing and quoting system, which defines a 'reasonable quote' merely as one that is executable and has a non-zero output, allowed a $50 million order to be routed through an extremely low-liquidity SushiSwap pool holding only ~331 AAVE. This was economically absurd, but it passed all technical checks, leading to near-total value destruction.

QWhich protocol's routing logic was identified as having a critically weak definition of a 'reasonable quote'?

AThe CoW protocol's routing and quoting logic was identified as the core vulnerability. Its public service code considered a quote 'reasonable' as long as the gas cost was positive and the output amount was non-zero. It lacked essential safeguards like oracle-based price sanity checks, mechanisms to block quotes that deviated massively from spot prices, or warnings about routing into pools with insufficient liquidity for the order size.

QWhat specific coding flaw was found in the Aave interface's CoW adapter quoting process?

AA specific flaw was found in the Aave interface's CoW adapter quoting process: the function designed to include adapter-specific application data when requesting a quote was forcibly disabled. This meant the quote request sent to CoW did not include the flash loan and hook metadata that would be attached when the order was actually placed, leading to an inaccurate quote that did not reflect the actual execution path.

QWhere did the economic value lost by the user ultimately end up?

AThe economic value lost by the user was almost instantly captured as MEV (Maximal Extractable Value) arbitrage profits and block builder rewards. In the very next transaction in the same block, an arbitrageur performed a back-run on the distorted SushiSwap AAVE/WETH pool, extracting approximately 17,929 WETH. This was then paid out as ~13,087 ETH to the block builder and ~4,824 ETH to the arbitrageur's address.

QAccording to the article's analysis, was this event a simple 'user error'?

ANo, the article's analysis strongly argues against categorizing this as a simple 'user error'. While the user did sign the order, the software system had multiple layers (the Aave UI, CoW's quoting, routing, and validation logic) that each had the opportunity to intercept this economically disastrous transaction but failed to do so because they only performed basic technical checks, not economic sanity checks. The system allowed the absurd routing to be quoted, signed, and executed.

Related Reads

Retail Ecology Dwindles, ZKsync Bets on Bank Pilots for a Breakthrough

Amidst declining retail activity, ZKsync is pivoting to target institutional banking as its primary growth strategy. The article explores this shift, contrasting it with the competitive "survival of the fittest" narrative by highlighting a cooperative model inspired by naturalist Peter Kropotkin. ZKsync is developing infrastructure like its private, permissioned Prividium suite for banks (e.g., Deutsche Bank's use case via Memento), enabling private transactions with public verifiability via zero-knowledge proofs. This appeals to institutions needing privacy, compliance, and Ethereum-based settlement security, unlike fully private chains (e.g., JPMorgan's Kinaxis) or consortium models (e.g., R3 Corda). However, this strategic focus has coincided with a steep decline in its public DeFi ecosystem, evidenced by plunging TVL and the departure of major protocols like Aave due to low fees. The network's future now hinges on banking adoption, with upcoming pilots like the Cari Network involving regional banks holding over $600 billion in deposits. A significant challenge is balancing this institutional focus with ZKsync's decentralized governance. Banks must operate on a network where rules and fees (denominated in the volatile ZK token) can be changed via community vote, and where a Security Council holds emergency control—a stark contrast to the predictable, contract-bound environments of traditional finance. The coming 18 months will test whether ZKsync can successfully onboard traditional banks onto a dynamically governed public chain or if institutions will ultimately revert to proprietary solutions.

Foresight News14m ago

Retail Ecology Dwindles, ZKsync Bets on Bank Pilots for a Breakthrough

Foresight News14m ago

The Recursive AI Anthropic Warned About: Tian Yuandong's New Company Has Just Taken the "First Step"

Anthropic recently highlighted the rapid progress toward "recursive self-improvement," where AI systems autonomously design and train their successors. In response, Recursive Superintelligence, a new company co-founded by former Meta researcher Tian Yuan Dong, has publicly demonstrated its first step toward automating AI research. The company released a system designed to autonomously execute the full AI research cycle: generating ideas, implementing code, running experiments, and learning from results. It validated this approach by achieving state-of-the-art results on three diverse benchmarks: 1. **NanoChat Autoresearch:** Optimizing a small language model's validation loss under a fixed 5-minute GPU budget, improving upon the community's best result. 2. **NanoGPT Speedrun:** Reducing the time to train a GPT model to a specific loss on 8 H100 GPUs from 79.7 seconds to 77.5 seconds, beating a highly optimized, human-driven community effort. 3. **SOL-ExecBench:** Improving the overall score on NVIDIA's suite of 235 GPU kernel optimization tasks by 18%, closing the gap to the hardware limit. The system discovered novel optimizations in this highly specialized domain without direct human expertise. Recursive's system operates as a general framework, capable of parallel exploration and cross-task knowledge transfer while incorporating safeguards against reward hacking. The company, backed by $650M in funding and a star-studded team including Richard Socher and Alexey Dosovitskiy, aims to create AI that recursively enhances its own research capabilities. This development represents an early but concrete move toward a new paradigm where AI accelerates its own advancement. It occurs alongside Anthropic's warnings about the need for industry coordination and potential pauses when recursive self-improvement thresholds are reached, highlighting the dual trajectory of rapid technical progress and growing calls for careful stewardship.

marsbit22m ago

The Recursive AI Anthropic Warned About: Tian Yuandong's New Company Has Just Taken the "First Step"

marsbit22m ago

The Gold Buy-on-the-Dip Guide: Watch Interest Rates, Not Just War

"Gold Buying Guide: Focus on Interest Rates, Not Just War" Four months ago, gold buyers likely didn't anticipate buying at a peak that even a war couldn't sustain. After hitting a record high of $5,596 on January 29, gold entered a bear market just 91 days later, its fastest decline since 2008. A key trigger was the Fed's hawkish shift, highlighting that monetary policy, not geopolitics, is the primary driver. The article argues that the traditional "buy gold in turmoil" script has changed. While the US-Iran conflict initially boosted prices, the sustained rally in oil prices heightened inflation fears, forcing central banks to maintain or consider tighter policy. Since gold yields no interest, higher rates increase its opportunity cost, eroding its appeal. This dynamic was evident when gold fell sharply on May 18 despite positive peace talks, as lower oil prices eased inflation and thus rate hike pressures. The recent sell-off is also part of a broader market deleveraging. Correlations between gold, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin spiked as leveraged investors sold liquid assets to cover losses, creating a synchronized downturn. Historically, gold bottoms align with policy shifts, not conflict resolutions. The 2008 and 2022 bear markets ended with shifts to extreme easing and peak inflation expectations, respectively. For potential buyers, the author suggests monitoring three signals: 1) Peak interest rate hike expectations, 2) Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (to ease oil/inflation pressure), and 3) A return to net inflows for Gold ETFs, indicating the end of forced selling. While predicting the exact bottom is impossible, the author's personal strategy involves scaling into a position across price levels like $4000, $3700, and $3500, committing no more than 30% of the intended total allocation initially, and adding the remainder only if key signals emerge. The core conclusion: In turbulent times, watching interest rates is more crucial than watching wars.

marsbit28m ago

The Gold Buy-on-the-Dip Guide: Watch Interest Rates, Not Just War

marsbit28m ago

Recent On-Chain Review: No Clear Narrative Under U.S. Stock Market Pressure, Just Hype

This article analyzes the current state of the Solana meme coin and community token ecosystem, highlighting a market caught between two dominant forces: attention-based PvP and a gradual return to community-centric projects. The first part explores the "Attention PvP" dynamic, where success is driven by celebrity endorsements, viral events, and speed. Examples include $JOTCHUA, which surged after its meme creator's social media activity, and $WORLDCUP, which outperformed a similar Base chain project ($PITCH) largely due to influencer support. The recent "pump.fun GO" feature, allowing bounty tasks for token promotion, is critiqued for fostering sensationalist and often negative stunts—like people getting token tickers tattooed on their bodies for rewards—reminiscent of old internet shock content. In contrast, the article points to a resurgence of organic, community-driven tokens that survive market volatility through strong holder bases and shared ideology, not just hype. Influencer Ansem is cited, arguing that durable meme coins rely on communities willing to endure losses and promote their core message daily. Examples given are older tokens like $neet (anti-work ethos), $troll, $buttcoin, and $triplet, which have maintained relative price stability. A prime example of this community-build model is the new project $KINS, the token for the browser-based MMORPG Kintara. Its success stems not from advanced graphics but from consistently delivering updates, fostering player trust, and creating genuine engagement (e.g., in-game economies, events, property auctions). It has attracted a growing player base and even notable KOLs as participants, demonstrating that sustainable growth can come from building trust rather than orchestrating pumps. The article concludes by questioning whether the market is ultimately a game of mutual trust or mutual deception, expressing hope that such reflection might lead to a healthier ecosystem.

marsbit28m ago

Recent On-Chain Review: No Clear Narrative Under U.S. Stock Market Pressure, Just Hype

marsbit28m ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

How to Buy AAVE

Welcome to HTX.com! We've made purchasing Aave Protocol (AAVE) simple and convenient. Follow our step-by-step guide to embark on your crypto journey.Step 1: Create Your HTX AccountUse your email or phone number to sign up for a free account on HTX. Experience a hassle-free registration journey and unlock all features.Get My AccountStep 2: Go to Buy Crypto and Choose Your Payment MethodCredit/Debit Card: Use your Visa or Mastercard to buy Aave Protocol (AAVE) instantly.Balance: Use funds from your HTX account balance to trade seamlessly.Third Parties: We've added popular payment methods such as Google Pay and Apple Pay to enhance convenience.P2P: Trade directly with other users on HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): We offer tailor-made services and competitive exchange rates for traders.Step 3: Store Your Aave Protocol (AAVE)After purchasing your Aave Protocol (AAVE), store it in your HTX account. Alternatively, you can send it elsewhere via blockchain transfer or use it to trade other cryptocurrencies.Step 4: Trade Aave Protocol (AAVE)Easily trade Aave Protocol (AAVE) on HTX's spot market. Simply access your account, select your trading pair, execute your trades, and monitor in real-time. We offer a user-friendly experience for both beginners and seasoned traders.

5.4k Total ViewsPublished 2024.03.29Updated 2026.06.02

How to Buy AAVE

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of AAVE (AAVE) are presented below.

活动图片