辣评｜「最有情绪价值」的帖子！STRC 会是下一个 LUNA 吗？

Foresight NewsPublished on 2026-06-26Last updated on 2026-06-26

Abstract

**《辣评》本周聚焦三件事：散户情绪、STRC脱锚风险与交易员川沐的“矛盾人设”。** **1. 本月“最有情绪价值”的帖子** 6月加密货币市场大跌，BTC跌破6万美元。Reddit上一条“去你的恐惧、不确定和怀疑！”的帖子引发散户共鸣，评论区成为情绪宣泄地，有人喊“钻石手加仓”，也有人调侃“不卖都是浮亏”，展现了熊市中的集体心理。 **2. STRC脱锚，会是下一个LUNA吗？** Strategy公司发行的永续优先股STRC价格跌至76.2美元，较面值脱锚约25%。投资者担忧其每年12亿美元的股息支付能力——Strategy当前美元储备约14亿美元，仅够支付一年。关键区别在于，CEO Saylor并无支付股息的强制性义务，因此STRC虽可能下跌，但不会像LUNA那样归零。不过，若市场对支付能力失去信心，其普通股MSTR也可能受牵连。Strategy CEO已购入100万美元STRC以示信心，但类似LUNA崩盘前的言论也引发了市场警觉。 **3. 川沐的1828条推文与“矛盾人设”** 交易员川沐因在ORDI行情和2025年做空山寨币中获利百万而闻名。分析其推文发现，其核心方法是追问系统瓶颈（如AI浪潮中的存储、光通信等环节），并据此迁移投资主线。然而，他也被质疑曾“喊单”部分币种后出现“收割”行情，且中途卖出股票未告知跟风者，呈现“盈利展示”与私下操作不一的矛盾形象，提醒投资者保持独立判断。 **总结**：本周市场情绪低迷，但社区互勉；STRC面临股息支付考验，虽与LUNA本质不同，风险犹存；川沐的案例则揭示了光鲜战绩背后的复杂性与跟单风险。

撰文:Nicky,Foresight News

欢迎回到《辣评》,每周带你围观加密世界里那些「鼓舞、脱锚、偷卖」的名场面。

本周三件事,分别是「Reddit 老哥们熊市互相打气、Strategy 的 STRC 会是下一个 LUNA 吗、交易员的 1828 条推文被扒」。

本月「最有情绪价值」的帖子

6 月,加密货币市场迎来一轮猛烈下跌。BTC 单月跌幅超 20%,跌破 6 万美元整数关口,市场情绪一度跌至冰点。

Reddit CryptoCurrency 版块上,有人发了一条帖子,内容只有一句话:

「去你的恐惧、不确定和怀疑!」

评论区瞬间成为散户情绪宣泄现场:

「FUD 是给韭菜准备的,钻石手只管低头加仓。」

网友辣评:「这是本月最有情绪价值的帖子。」

别人恐惧我贪婪,别人贪婪我恐惧。

向继续持有的人们致敬🫡。

谁会充当退出流动性呢🤔?

告诉大家不卖的「托儿」🤣。

不卖就都是「浮亏」🥶。

所以卖在高点就可以过上高端生活嘛🤪?

坚定持有(HODL)!

卖在高点📈,买在低点📉!

我们都是好兄弟!

STRC 脱锚,会是下一个 LUNA 吗?

Arkham 官方账号于 6 月 25 日发文抛出一个敏感问题:「STRC 会是下一个 LUNA 吗?」

答案是:不完全一样,但问题不小。

先解释一下:STRC 是 Strategy 公司发行的永续优先股,面值 100 美元,每年支付 11.5% 股息。

目前 STRC 已跌至约 76.2 美元,较面值折价约 25%,也就是「脱锚」了。

为什么跌?因为投资者开始怀疑:Saylor 还愿不愿意、能不能继续每年掏 12 亿美元来支付股息?

按照数据,STRC 流通股约 1.05 亿股,每年股息支出约 12 亿美元。而 Strategy 本周一公布的美元储备约 14 亿美元,也就是够付一年,但不够付第二年。

关键区别在于:Saylor 没有义务必须支付这些股息。如果他决定暂停分红,STRC 可能继续下跌,但 Strategy 本身不会像 LUNA 那样一夜归零。

不过风险还在后面:如果 MSTR(Strategy 普通股)的投资者发现,自己买入的钱被用来优先支付优先股股息,他们可能会减少购买 MSTR。

所以「底」的价格到底是多少呢?

k 线图已经演绎了「最终结果」📉。

或许是大家不想承认这个事实🫢。

Saylor 付钱是为了告诉大家这和 LUNA 崩盘不一样嘛😜?

所以我们需不需要担心呢🙂↕️?

只是市场决定了价格嘛🧐。

Strategy CEO Phong Le 在 6 月 22 日表示已购买价值 100 万美元的 STRC。

巧合的是,「正在部署更多的资本,稳住」,Luna 创始人 Do Kwon 曾发推表示过类似的看法😅。

当前距 LUNA 崩盘正好相隔了 4 年零 1 个月。不过和 LUNA 相比,STRC 至少还有真金白银的公司在背后。

川沐的 1828 条推文被扒,却有了「矛盾人设」

有博主做了一篇深度分析,标题很直接:《我扒了川沐 1828 条推文》

川沐是谁?2023 年 ORDI 铭文行情中,以 500 美元本金做到 100 万美元。

2025 年币圈暴跌,他又做空一揽子山寨币,一个月内 1 万美元做到 100 万美元。

在 2025 年 10 月后明牌退出 Crypto 市场,精准躲过大跌,转战港 / 美 /A 股。海力士、三星、MRVL、NOK......踩中大量牛股,股票账户破亿。

文章作者通过分析其推文,发现川沐真正厉害的是他的追问方式:AI 浪潮里,谁是终端应用?谁是基础设施?谁是供应链瓶颈?谁最难扩产?谁被市场错误定价?

他不是先问「哪只股票会涨」,而是先问「整个系统会卡在哪里」。

顺着这套逻辑,他的主线也一路迁移:2025 年夏天还在做美股里的 Crypto 映射(MSTR、SBET、CRCL);2025 年底切到 AI 基建早期线索(美光、LITE);2026 年初重仓海力士、三星,也就是 AI 存储里最卡脖子的环节;2026 年 5 月,进一步扩展到左脚存储(DRAM)、右脚光通信(MRVL 负责芯片内光互连,NOK 负责芯片外远距离光通信)。

但也有网友对川沐提出质疑,川沐曾喊单的部分币种后续产生了「收割」行情。同时曾说要持有一段时间的股票却在中途卖出,但「跟单」买入的网友却毫不知情🥹。

所以成功之后自有「大儒为其辩经」嘛🫢?

经历者才有发言权。

「喊单」变成了一个概率游戏🎲。

背后都血与泪的故事😭。

要从全方位出发来了解一个人,不盲目轻信、保持自我判断的能力!

老师你下车的时候怎么不通知一下🫪。

展现出来的「盈利」是想让大家看到的🤩,还有一部分不想让大家看到。

从 BTC 的「Reddit 精神胜利法」,到 STRC 的「12 亿美元股息拷问」,再到川沐的「矛盾人设」。这一周,有人在互相打气,有人在计算现金储备,有人在复盘推文里找下一站。

祝各位周末快乐!我们下周见!

(本期内容源于公开信息与网络讨论,轻松解读,仅供参考。)

往期回顾:辣评|Michael Saylor 发表「渣男言论」;60 岁大妈合约爆仓后「崩小伙」

辣评|三个故事告诉你:在币圈, 越努力越「苦逼」

辣评|「散户之王」竟被弟弟盗号用来「诈骗」?AI「考古发掘」出比特币...

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1.3k Total ViewsPublished 2024.12.17Updated 2024.12.17

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Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of LUNA (LUNA) are presented below.