Original: All-In Podcast
Compiled by: Yuliya, PANews
The "All-In Podcast" is one of the world's most popular technology and business podcasts, co-hosted by four top venture capitalists and friends. The four hosts are: Jason Calacanis (early investor in Uber and Robinhood, podcast host, responsible for moderating), Chamath Palihapitiya (billionaire, founder of Social Capital, known as the "SPAC King," with sharp opinions), David Friedberg (founder of The Production Board, with a deep scientific background, known as the "Sultan of Science"), and David Sacks (America's first "AI and Cryptocurrency Czar," close friend of Musk, co-founder of Craft Ventures, former PayPal executive, recently deeply involved in U.S. political activities). In this episode, the four delved into predictions for 2026's political, business, and tech trends, covering topics such as California's wealth tax, Trump economics, AI's impact on employment, geopolitics, and specific investment advice.
Below is a detailed compilation of the conversation, translated by PANews:
Prologue: Fleeing California and the Wealth Tax Crisis
Jason Calacanis (hereinafter Jason): Welcome back to the world's number one podcast. David Sacks, everyone is curious, how are you settling in after moving to Texas?
David Sacks (hereinafter Sacks): I love the 70-degree Fahrenheit (about 21 Celsius) weather here. I moved in December, bought a new house, went to the DMV, and signed a lease for Craft Ventures' Austin office. Everything is sorted.
Jason: Chamath, what about you guys?
Chamath Palihapitiya (hereinafter Chamath): We're coming to check it out, but haven't made a final decision yet.
Sacks: The funniest thing is, while we were discussing the California wealth tax in the group chat, Chamath was still acting, saying "I'm going to stay and fight, I won't leave my home." Then I got a call from my real estate agent saying she's helping Chamath look for a house.
Jason: Wow! Chamath is doing a "backdoor deal"?
Chamath: I'm just hedging my bets! If you look at our friends who have clearly already left, their combined net worth is about $500 billion. This is very bad for California's long-term budget. If you add those who are still on the fence but might be forced to leave, roughly half of California's projected taxable wealth could flee.
Sacks: I predict this (California wealth tax) will be the topic of the year. They are collecting signatures; they need about 850,000 to get the proposal on the ballot. If it's confirmed in April, it will cause massive panic, and many people will leave because they can't bear the risk. Even if it doesn't pass in 2026, everyone expects some version to return in 2028. This is precisely why I decided to leave.
Chamath: If you're an entrepreneur with a good idea, it's very hard to start a business here. Because once you succeed and are holding a lot of illiquid stock, you have to pay 5% tax on the valuation of that stock, which could bankrupt your own company.
Sacks: And what if your company goes to zero the next year? You still owe the tax bill. Also, one reason Larry Page and Sergey Brin (Google founders) might be leaving is the super-voting rights clause in the proposal. This clause states that if you have super-voting rights, the tax authority will value all your shares based on the multiple of the super-voting rights. For example, they own 52% of Google's voting rights, Google's market cap is $4 trillion, so their net worth might be considered $1 trillion each, not the actual $200 billion. For them, a 5% tax effectively becomes a 25% or even 50% tax.
Jason: Lightning prediction, will this "asset seizure tax" pass?
David Friedberg (hereinafter Friedberg): I think it won't make it to the ballot.
Chamath: I don't think it will pass, but it will make it to the ballot.
Sacks: Previously, Polymarket predicted only a 45% chance it would make the ballot, but after Ro Khanna and Bernie Sanders got involved, it skyrocketed to 80%. There are only two ways it doesn't make it: one, the union (SEIU) doesn't have the money to collect signatures, or two, Gavin Newsom (Governor of California) can negotiate its withdrawal.
Chamath: But if it makes the ballot, the chance of passing is 40%.
Biggest Business Winners of 2026
Jason: Next up, business winners. Last year's predictions: Friedberg picked robots and autonomous driving hardware, Chamath picked dollar stablecoins, Gavin picked large companies leveraging AI well, and I picked Tesla and Google. We could say we were all pretty accurate. Friedberg, who do you pick this year?
Friedberg: I have two choices.
- First is Huawei. I think Huawei, in cooperation with SMIC, is deeply involved in the chip sector, they are going all out, and their performance this year will exceed Western expectations.
- Second is Polymarket. It has evolved from a quirky niche market into a platform that provides insights into current events. I expect it to explode this year. Following its partnership with the NYSE, I expect all exchanges, including Robinhood, Coinbase, and even Nasdaq, to make moves this year. Prediction markets will not only become markets but also news.
Chamath: I choose copper. In a world increasingly moving towards unilateralism and emphasizing national economic resilience, we still severely underestimate the gap between global demand and supply for a few key elements. In this context, the asset most likely to "take off" is copper. It is currently the most useful, cheapest, most malleable, and conductive material, found everywhere from data centers to chips to weapon systems. At the current rate, by 2040, there will be a roughly 70% gap in global copper supply.
Sacks: I think 2026 will be a big year for IPOs. There will be a large number of companies successfully going public, creating trillions in new market capitalization. For a while, people worried about the shrinking number of public companies, with many going private. 2026 will be a major reversal of this trend, and it's part of the "Trump Boom."
Jason: I was right about Google last year; this year my choice is Amazon. I think they will be the first "corporate singularity," meaning robots will contribute more profit to the company than humans. Their autonomous driving company Zoox is progressing well, and they are massively replacing human workers with robots. In Austin, we can get same-day delivery for anything ordered, backed by a huge automated warehouse and logistics network.
Sacks: I think Jason will ultimately be right about Amazon, but for reasons completely unrelated to what he stated.
Biggest Business Losers of 2026
Jason: After winners, let's talk losers. Last year's predictions, we were very aligned; Friedberg, Chamath, and Gavin all pointed to enterprise SaaS (Software as a Service), and I chose traditional auto companies and real estate. It turned out enterprise SaaS did perform poorly in 2025, with stocks like ServiceNow, Workday, DocuSign all falling. Friedberg, what's your prediction for the biggest business loser this year?
Friedberg: I think state governments will face huge financing difficulties. As more exposure of waste, fraud, and abuse in state government agencies emerges, people will start questioning their long-term solvency. More seriously, the massive unrealized pension liabilities of states will be exposed this year, making people realize there's a huge black hole in state government finances.
Chamath: I choose the software industrial complex, meaning those companies selling licensed SaaS to American businesses. This is a three to four trillion dollar annual economy, but 90% of its revenue comes from "maintenance" and "migration." With advances in AI models and technology, I think the economic opportunity in these two areas will shrink and contract dramatically. Companies will still need software, but incremental revenue will be much lower, severely impacting listed SaaS companies.
Sacks: I still choose California. Because the shadow of the wealth tax and the harsh regulatory environment are driving business and capital out of the state. I sincerely hope you are right and this bill doesn't make the ballot. If it does, there will be panic-driven flight.
Jason: My choice is young white-collar workers in the U.S. I think it's becoming increasingly difficult for them to find entry-level jobs because companies find it easier to automate with AI than to train new graduates. I see many companies using AI to replace the bottom third of repetitive tasks, which are usually done by recent graduates. This isn't to say young people have no opportunities, but they need to become more resilient, self-reliant, and must learn to use AI tools.
Friedberg: I have a different take on this. I've heard from some CEO friends that hiring recent graduates is difficult now, not because of AI, but because of cultural issues. Many Gen Z graduates seem to lack work motivation, organizational skills, and executive function. This might be a specific phenomenon from the COVID era, or a deeper cultural shift. So I think the difficulty for young people finding jobs is a result of both cultural factors and AI automation.
Jason: I think both are right. Maybe these young people are either spoiled or their parents have enough money for them to drift. But I also确实 see many companies telling me that they can replace the bottom third of tasks, which are typically done by recent graduates.
Most Significant Deal of 2026
Jason: Next, predict the most significant deal of 2026. Sacks, what are your thoughts?
Sacks: I don't want to name specific companies, but I think there will be a major breakthrough in the Coding Assistants and Tool Use领域. Just like chatbots at the end of 2022, this area is heating up rapidly, and I think it will become increasingly important this year.
Friedberg: I think the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be resolved this year. There are many economic and political factors pushing this process forward, which will bring more stability to the region.
Chamath: I think it's not a specific deal, but a change in how deals are done: IP licensing deals will replace traditional M&A. Due to increasingly strict antitrust scrutiny, large mergers have become extremely difficult. So companies will turn to large-scale IP licensing agreements to acquire technology and talent. The collaborations between Google and Character.AI, Microsoft and OpenAI, Nvidia and Grok are all examples of this model. I think this type of deal will become more common and mature in 2026.
Jason: I think we will see a mega-acquisition over $50 billion. It could be one of Apple, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon acquiring an AI newcomer like XAI, Mistral, Perplexity, or Anthropic. I know most of these AI companies want to go public independently, but I think an offer that can't be refused will eventually appear. President Trump might instruct the government to "make M&A great again," which is crucial for U.S. global competitiveness.
Boldest Contrarian Prediction for 2026
Jason: Next is everyone's favorite part: the boldest contrarian prediction. Last year's predictions: I said OpenAI would lose its lead, which it did; Chamath predicted a major bank crisis; Gavin predicted GDP growth exceeding 5%; Friedberg predicted a resurgence of socialism. One could say our predictions were quite forward-looking. Friedberg, what's your contrarian prediction this year?
Friedberg: My prediction is based on a premise: there will be a revolution in Iran, and the Ayatollah regime will fall. But that's not my contrarian view; I think that will happen. My contrarian view is: Iran's fall will not bring stability to the Middle East but will instead trigger more conflict. Many think Iran is a destabilizing force, but I believe it actually provides a certain "stability." Once this regime disappears, other Arab countries (like UAE, Saudi, Qatar, etc.) will erupt into new conflicts vying for power and influence, especially after a Palestinian two-state solution emerges. The situation in the Middle East will be worse than anyone expects.
Sacks: My contrarian prediction is: AI will increase, not decrease, the demand for knowledge workers. I want to cite "Jevons' paradox": when the cost of a resource decreases, the total demand for it反而 increases because people find more use cases. For example, lower cost of generating code will lead society to create a sea of software; lower cost of radiology scans will make scanning普及化, requiring more radiologists to interpret and validate AI results. The so-called "unemployment narrative" is not only wrong, we will actually see job growth.
Chamath: I have two contrarian predictions.
- First: SpaceX will not IPO but will reverse-merge into Tesla. I think Elon Musk will use this opportunity to integrate his two most important assets into one equity structure to consolidate his control.
- Second: Central banks will realize the limitations of gold and Bitcoin and seek a全新的, controllable crypto paradigm. To maintain national sovereignty, they need a tradable, secure, and completely private asset that is not easily spied on by other countries (whether friends or foes). And technically, it must be able to withstand the challenge quantum computing might pose to existing encryption systems in the next 5 to 10 years.
Jason: My contrarian prediction is: The standoff between the U.S. and China will be resolved to a large extent. I think this could become a signature achievement of President Trump's second term. Both sides will reach a win-win working relationship, not a zero-sum game where one side loses.
Best Performing Asset of 2026
Jason: Last year, Gavin's pick of high-bandwidth memory manufacturers (like Micron) saw stock prices surge 230%, Friedberg's pick of Chinese tech stocks also performed well. This year, what asset do you think will perform best?
Friedberg: I choose Polymarket again. Its network effects are emerging; it's replacing the functions of traditional media and markets, with huge potential.
Chamath: I choose a basket of critical metals. This aligns with the copper logic I mentioned earlier; against the backdrop of geopolitics and supply chain reshoring, demand for these basic materials will be rigid.
Sacks: I choose the tech sector expansion supercycle. This is still part of my "Trump Boom" theory. And, just today as we record, the Atlanta Fed just raised its Q4 GDP growth forecast to a staggering 5.4%.
Chamath: People don't realize a few things.
- First, due to immigration, non-farm payroll data has been reset, and income growth for low-income groups is very strong.
- Second, productivity gains from AI.
- Third, tax cuts set to take effect in 2026.
All these factors combine to form a huge growth engine. Don't short the U.S. economy; it's ready to take off. 6% GDP growth is not unrealistic.
Jason: In this environment of an impending economic takeoff, potentially lower interest rates, and people having spare cash, my choice is the speculation and gambling sector, including platforms like Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks, and Coinbase. People will have more disposable income for betting and speculation.
Worst Performing Asset of 2026
Jason: Last year our predictions for the worst-performing asset were remarkably aligned, almost all pointing to enterprise SaaS and traditional auto/real estate, and facts proved our judgment. Sacks, which asset do you predict will perform worst this year?
Sacks: I think it's high-end luxury homes in California. Subject to the ongoing impact of wealth tax rumors, this market will face huge pressure. I even hope that if the wealth tax proposal ultimately fails, there might be a "dead cat bounce" so I can offload my properties.
Chamath: I think it's hydrocarbons, meaning oil. I think the downward trend in oil prices is irreversible. Regardless of your views on climate change, the trend towards electrification and energy storage is unstoppable. This will continuously shrink oil's effective use cases. I think oil is more likely to trend towards $45 per barrel than return to $65.
Friedberg: I think Netflix will be the worst performer (provided they don't acquire Warner Bros.), or more broadly, the worst performers will be traditional media stocks. Netflix's content library is being challenged from all sides, and their current offers to content creators (cost plus 10%) are very苛刻, causing many good creators to no longer want to work with them. If they don't acquire to expand their library, they will face huge difficulties. And traditional media is being challenged by independent creators and citizen journalism.
Jason: I choose the U.S. dollar. Our national debt continues to grow, expected to increase by another two trillion this year. If President Trump really increases the military budget by 50%, that will directly add to our debt. All this will challenge the value of the dollar, which is why we see people turning to gold, silver, and even copper.
Most Anticipated Trend of 2026
Jason: Last year the trends we anticipated included the return of M&A and IPOs, rapid AI development, and nuclear energy construction. This year, what trend are you most looking forward to?
Friedberg: I think Iran becoming an independent democratic country will be the most anticipated trend this year. The people there, especially the youth, crave freedom, and the economic crisis is driving this change. This could be the most significant event reshaping the Middle East landscape.
Sacks: The trend I most look forward to is the audit of government spending at all levels. We need to make the "decentralized DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency)"常态化, letting the public see where the money is going.
Chamath: I look forward to the expansion of "Trumpism." Regardless of your political stance, as an economic participant—running a business, investing in stocks, or speculating in cryptocurrency—understanding the changes in the global economic landscape is crucial. Unilateralism, economic resilience, this is a huge trend, and its result will be massive GDP growth.
Jason: I'm sticking with last year's prediction and extending it to 2026: The王者归来 of the IPO market. I think at least two of the巨头 like SpaceX, Anduril, Stripe, Anthropic, or OpenAI will file to go public this year. This will ignite the market and be an exciting time for Silicon Valley, for these companies' employees, and for the pension and endowment funds holding their shares.
Biggest Political Winner of 2026
Jason: Okay, let's move into the formal prediction segment. First, who will be the biggest political winner of 2026? Looking back at last year's predictions: Friedberg said young candidates, Gavin (guest host) said Trump and centrism, Chamath said fiscal conservatives, I said representatives of Gen X and Millennials. Friedberg, your pick this year?
Friedberg: The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). Just as the MAGA movement took over the Republican Party, I think the DSA is taking over the Democratic Party, and this trend will solidify in 2026.
Chamath: Anyone committed to cracking down on waste, fraud, and abuse at the federal, state, and local levels. This is an open lane, and I think this political strategy will be very effective in 2026.
Sacks: I think the "Trump Boom" will be the biggest political winner. Good economic news is already appearing: inflation down to 2.7%, core CPI 2.6%, Q3 GDP growth 4.3%, trade deficit the lowest since 2009, layoffs大幅下降. The S&P 500 keeps hitting new highs, oil prices are down, mortgage costs have dropped by $3000, real wages have risen by over $1000. I predict by June we'll see 75 to 100 basis points of rate cuts, and thanks to larger standard deductions and tax exemptions for tips, overtime, etc., there will be massive tax refunds in April. All this will have a huge impact on next year's political landscape.
Jason: What GDP do you predict?
Sacks: I pick 5%.
Chamath: I think the floor is 5%, the ceiling is 6.2%. You know, if we can hit 6%, in the modern world, the only准 competitor that could do this was China, and that was during a period when it had complete coordination and dominance over its federal, state, and local economies. For us to do this under democracy and capitalism would be astounding.
Friedberg: I predict 4.6%.
Jason: My prediction wavered between JD Vance and "The Mamdani Moment" (referring to young socialists like NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani), but I ultimately choose the "Mandami Moment." He's only 34, and the Democrats seem to think moving towards full socialism is the easiest way to win in 2026. I think Trump, by neglecting the needs of the American working class, has actually provided space for this route. He now seems more like a neoconservative, having bombed seven countries this year and threatened to occupy Colombia and Greenland, which has disappointed many.
Biggest Political Loser of 2026
Jason: After winners, let's talk losers. Last year both Gavin and I predicted Putin, Chamath predicted progressivism, Friedberg predicted pro-war neoconservatives. Sacks, who do you think is the biggest political loser of 2026?
Sacks: I think it's Democratic Centrism. This is really the flip side of you guys thinking the socialists will win. Two reasons:
- One, socialist ideology is gaining ground among the Democratic base, especially young people;
- Two, because of gerrymandering, the vast majority of congressional districts have no real competition anymore, so the only real threat to a Democratic incumbent comes from a challenger on their left, forcing even moderates to move left.
Chamath: The biggest loser of 2026 is the Monroe Doctrine. I think historians looking back at the Trump presidency will rewrite it. I think there is a clear "Trump Doctrine" that has superseded the Monroe Doctrine. How do we view war? How do we view our sphere of influence? How do we view economic multilateralism vs. unilateralism? All of this is outdated. Trump's view is hemispheric dominance, proactive intervention in very specific circumstances, like打击贩毒集团, controlling immigration, securing critical assets. We have more transactional relationships, allowing us to react随时.
Friedberg: I think the biggest political loser of 2026 is the tech industry. Artificial intelligence and tech wealth have become the target of populism on both the left and right. The right is splitting internally, the tech-MAGA alliance is being strongly challenged by populism; the left is hardening because of tech's alignment with the right. I think the 2026 midterm elections will be a referendum on the tech industry.
Chamath: Friedberg is so right. I just met with three senior Republican Senators yesterday, and they are very disappointed and distrustful of some tech companies and their leaders.
Sacks: I think the tech industry's natural ally is MAGA, because we still believe in property rights and innovation. If the Democrats truly go socialist, they will want to redefine your relationship with property rights. The populist right is angry because they remember censorship, deplatforming, and shadow banning. Tech companies need to have some "truth and reconciliation" meetings with conservatives. Many companies only did those things under pressure from the Biden administration, and they also made the mistake of only donating to left-wing causes.
Jason: I agree with Sacks, the biggest political loser of 2026 will be Democratic centrists.
Sacks: Jason, you mentioned twice that Trump is a neoconservative, I have to respond. Neoconservatism is characterized by: large-scale invasion, long-term occupation, and nation-building. Did Trump do these things? No. Take Venezuela, the entire operation lasted three hours, no Americans died, it was perfect. We didn't overthrow the whole regime, we worked with the existing regime. This is a全新 paradigm, not neoconservatism.
Jason: I admit, Trump's military actions have been very precise and efficient, our military performed excellently. But things can always go wrong. If the operation had failed and we took hostages, today's discussion would be completely different. We must remain cautious.
