2025年TGE后表现尚可的代币都有什么特征和共性？

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-12-31Last updated on 2025-12-31

Abstract

2025年TGE后表现较好的代币包括ASTER、FOLKS、AVICI和SENTIS等，它们具有以下共同特征： 1. **代币分发机制合理**：避免大量内部流动性，注重公平分配，如AVICI团队零持有，SENTIS通过活动奖励逐步释放。 2. **估值合理**：项目上线时估值较低（如AVICI仅350万美元FDV），留有市场上涨空间。 3. **实际应用支撑**：强调可验证的使用量，如Aster的Perp交易量、Folks的借贷规模、Avici的信用卡消费，而非空谈愿景。 4. **解锁结构透明**：采用线性解锁机制，避免突然的大额解锁冲击市场。 5. **交易所上市非决定性因素**：上币仅加速趋势，不能替代项目基本面。 总体而言，2025年市场更看重代币经济结构、实际采用和公平分配，而非单纯依赖叙事或融资背景。表现优异的项目均注重生存能力，通过合理的代币设计和真实需求支撑价格。

原文作者:Stacy Muur,加密研究员

原文编译:CryptoLeo(@LeoAndCrypto)

上周,我编译了 Solus Group 的一篇研究帖子《超八成新币TGE即巅峰,Web3虚假繁荣的病根和解药在这》,其分析了 2025 年 113 种代币 TGE 后的情况,其中绝大多数代币都是 TGE 即巅峰,代币价格在上线后第二天就开始下跌,但他们都具备高额融资、社区支持和交易所上线等条件。

今日分享的文章来自加密研究员 Stacy Muur,其统计了 2025 年几个较 TGE 时代币价格显著上涨的代币,并分析了这些项目具有什么样的优势/条件。对比之下,前一篇文章相当于数据出发得到一个统计上的结果,而本篇文章更注重于项目本身,总结一句话:在如今加密市场过度同质化和扩张的背景下,项目代币需要满足多个条件才可以在市场上活下来/胜出。Odaily 星球日报将其编译如下:

如果你一直热衷于交易 2025 年 TGE 的代币,至今结果会很明确:代币上线第一周内火爆,随后热度逐渐降低,最后默认接受“发行价就是最高点”。大多数新上线的代币表现不佳,甚至暴跌,因为市场始终将代币经济学和流动性视为基本面。

尽管如此,2025 年仍有少数代币相对 TGE 后保持了价格上涨,这种上涨并非“在价格暴跌后反弹”,也不是“买在市场低点”,而是以一种表明其存在真实买盘支撑。

以下是我盘点的 2025 年 TGE 的真实上涨代币:ASTER、FOLKS、AVICI 和 SENTIS(还有一些“勉强及格”的代币,如 IRYS/FHE/CORN)。它们看起来并不完全一样,但都存在某些特征。

2025 年 TGE 的最好的上涨代币

Aster 是其中的典型例子,ASTER 在上线第一天就获得了项目所需的一切:大所上线、深度流动性,以及公众广泛接受的“Perp DEX”叙事。全年流传的故事基本上是:“币安支持的 Perp DEX、具有隐私性”。

ASTER 价格走势颇具争议(你可以称之为 ZK 相关、CZ 影子游戏,或仅仅是更好的执行策略)。但尽管如此,它仍是少数几个在 TGE 时没有“立即抛售”的项目之一。

FOLKS 与众不同:它是一种借贷代币,在“行情如此垃圾”的一年里,它被视作 Alpha。公式:“币安和 Kraken 从第一天起就表示了支持,跨链池不断增长,没有明显的天量解锁。”最后一点非常重要。直到 12 月 15 日代币解锁其表现都不错。

AVICI 是与前两者都不同。AVICI 之所以在列,并非因为其拥有最尖端的技术;而是因为它为 CT 提供了最清晰的叙事:“公平发布,真正实用的产品”,其并非强调代币经济,而是使用情况:“不错的 neobank 应用、Visa 卡、真实消费。”在这个充斥着内生“实用性”的市场中,AVICI 令人耳目一新,既跳出了传统思维又切实可行,AVICI 可能是年度最佳 TGE 代币之一。

当代币因为某种原因上涨时,其价格往往更稳定

现在来看,TGE 后表现最强劲的代币是 SENTIS。其支撑点简单明了:AI Agent 叙事+持续激励分配+交易所上线。在 CT 中,主导框架保持一致:“AI Agent 是下一个 DeFi 自动化层”,这为交易者提供了一个简单的思维模型作为锚点。

从机制上来说,SENTIS 并不依赖于一次性的上线暴涨。该代币的持续分发机制(任务/retrodrop/参与奖励)保持了用户参与的稳定度,这往往会转化为持续的现货需求,因为参与者会为未来的分配和生态系统里程碑做好准备,这种动态甚至可以在链上出现更有意义的采用之前支撑价格。

“勉强及格”的代币

IRYS 和 FHE 属于“人工智能基础设施与隐私交易”领域:两者都从 AI 热潮中受益,维持在初始区间之上,并且都保持了足够的流动性以避免价格崩盘。如果这些项目能够将其叙事转化为链上使用,它们就能生存下来,仅仅靠叙事支持是不够的。

还有 CORN,CORN 波动性并不大,相对于同类产品而言较为稳定,但 CORN 更像是一种“结构性产品”。在 2025 年,这并不是一件坏事。当市场对过度发展进行“惩罚”时,生存能力就变得很重要了。

2025 表现不错的代币都具有什么特性

剔除叙事和氛围之后,浮现出一些清晰的结构模式:

1. 代币分发比炒作更重要

表现最强劲的项目在 TGE 避免了大量的内部流动性。AVICI(0%团队持有)、SENTIS(基于活动的排放量)。

经验:在项目启动时,谁持有代币比谁私下投资更重要。

2. 合理的上线估值胜过完美的发币时机

许多表现优异的代币并非在市场炒作高峰期时上线,而是在估值合理时上线,让市场对其重新进行估值上调。

AVICI 以约 350 万美元的 FDV 推出了一款可运作的产品,其潜在收益与 FDV 具有不对称性。

经验:“通过努力”推动上涨的代币比那些一开始就拥有高估值的代币表现更好。

3. 项目使用量(或可信的近期使用量)体现在价格上

Aster 的 Perp 交易量、Folks 的借贷规模、Avici 的信用卡支出,这些并非只是白皮书上的承诺,而是可观察到的信号。

Sentis 起步较早,但也将代币排放与链上活动挂钩,在使用量和价格之间形成了反馈循环。

经验:市场现在缺乏耐心,实用 > 愿景。

4. 解锁结构 > 解锁尺寸

代币解锁的线性和透明很重要,这会导致其稀释效应已被市场消化。比如 SENTIS 通过参与机制逐步释放代币。

在其他地方,摧毁用户信心的并非代币稀释本身,而是风险较大的 Cliff 式解锁。

经验:可预知的代币解锁是可以承受的,意外的解锁无法承受。

5. 交易所上市是必要的,但还不够

几乎每一种代币都有不错的交易所渠道接入,但这本身并不能决定什么。上币放大了结果:它们帮助强势代币加速上涨,而弱势代币更快地被抛售,没有币安上线的背景下 AVICI 代币的表现也没那么差。

经验:交易所流动性是加速器,不是基础。

核心要点

总体来看,2025 年 TGE 代币的情况标志着一种转变。

市场不再奖励“潜力”,转而开始奖励“结构”:

-健康的流通量

-公平的代币分配

-可靠的采用量

-受控的解锁机制

2025 年的“上涨代币”并非完美项目,它们只是为了在推出后能活下来而建造的。如果说 2024 年聚焦于叙事,那么 2025 年则是在压力下进行代币设计。而这也是大多数项目 TGE 期间尚未吸取的经验。

Related Questions

Q2025年TGE后表现尚可的代币有哪些共同特征？

A2025年TGE后表现尚可的代币（如ASTER、FOLKS、AVICI和SENTIS）具有以下共同特征：健康的流通量、公平的代币分配、可靠的采用量、受控的解锁机制，以及合理的上线估值。这些代币更注重实际使用和结构设计，而非仅依赖市场炒作。

Q为什么AVICI被认为是2025年最佳TGE代币之一？

AAVICI被认为是2025年最佳TGE代币之一，因为它以公平发布（0%团队持有）和实际产品（如neobank应用、Visa卡和真实消费）脱颖而出。其上线估值合理（约350万美元FDV），并跳出了传统代币经济学的思维，强调实际使用情况，而非内生实用性。

QSENTIS的代币分发机制有什么特点？

ASENTIS的代币分发机制基于持续激励分配，通过任务、retrodrop和参与奖励等方式逐步释放代币。这种机制保持了用户参与的稳定度，转化为持续的现货需求，并在使用量和价格之间形成反馈循环，避免了大量内部流动性和意外解锁的风险。

Q交易所上市对2025年TGE代币的表现有何影响？

A交易所上市（如币安和Kraken）是必要的，但不足以决定代币的长期表现。它主要作为加速器，放大代币的结果：帮助强势代币加速上涨，而弱势代币更快被抛售。例如，AVICI即使没有币安上线，表现也未受太大影响，表明交易所流动性是辅助因素，而非基础。

Q2025年市场对TGE代币的奖励重点发生了怎样的转变？

A2025年市场对TGE代币的奖励重点从‘潜力’转向‘结构’。市场不再仅奖励叙事和炒作，而是更注重健康的流通量、公平的代币分配、可靠的采用量、受控的解锁机制以及合理的估值。这标志着代币设计在压力下的重要性提升，大多数项目需吸取这一经验以在推出后存活。

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Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of WELL (WELL) are presented below.

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