Эксперты 10x Research оценили вероятность включения Strategy в индекс S&P 500

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-10-13Last updated on 2025-10-29

  • В 10x Research опубликовали отчет о Strategy.
  • Эксперты считают, что компания может попасть в индекс S&P 500 с вероятностью до 70%.
  • Это будет возможно в случае благоприятного III квартала для компании.

Эксперты 10x Research провели анализ Strategy (ранее MicroStrategy) на предмет вероятности включения компании в индекс S&P 500. Она составляет от 60% до 70% в том случае, если финансовый отчет фирмы за III квартал 2025 года будет благоприятным.

В работе экспертов неоднократно подчеркивается пессимизм в отношении Strategy на рынке. Вместе с тем, как считают в 10x Research, компания все еще не реализовала до конца свой потенциал:

«Капитуляция всегда ощущается как конец, пока она тихо не станет новым началом», — отметили авторы.

30 октября 2025 года Strategy опубликует отчет за III квартал 2025 года. Ожидается, что в нем компания отразит нереализованную прибыль от инвестиций в биткоин в размере $3,8 млрд.

Если квартал будет для Strategy в целом положительным, это послужит новым катализатором роста, отметили эксперты. Также это снова подымет вопрос включения акций компании в S&P 500 в декабре 2025 года.

Фирма прошла квалификацию для этого в сентябре, но так и не попала в индекс. Этому предшествовал благоприятный II квартал 2025 года, в котором компания зафиксировала более $14 млрд нереализованной прибыли.

Также ранее мы сообщали о том, что облигации Strategy получили кредитный рейтинг от S&P Global Ratings. Несмотря на низкую отметку, B-, компания стала первым биткоин-казначеем, который в принципе прошел оценку агентства.

Вместе с тем акции Strategy продолжают падать. За полгода они обвалились почти на 28%:

Курс акций MSTR на бирже Nasdaq. Источник: TradingView.

Кроме того, показатель mNAV (Market-to-Net Asset Value) Strategy, который служит индикатором оценки инвестиций казначейской компании (DAT) в криптоактивы, неоднократно приближался к пороговому значению в единицу, хотя и не опускался ниже него.

Также Strategy существенно замедлила покупки биткоинов. В октябре компания приобрела 778 BTC, что на 78% меньше в сравнении со значением за сентябрь 2025 года.

Ранее эксперты 10x Research оценили потери инвесторов от инвестиций в DAT в $17 млрд из-за завышенной премии акций этих организаций.

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