Key Takeaways
Will Cardano sustain its rebound?
The rebound from $0.75 reflects renewed bullish momentum, supported by strong accumulation and improved technical structure.
Could ADA rally toward $1.30 before the ETF decision?
Tightening supply and rising Open Interest indicate ADA could extend its recovery into the ETF decision window.
Cardano’s [ADA] rebound from the $0.75 support zone came at a critical moment as investors awaited the SEC’s ruling on Grayscale’s ADA ETF, scheduled for the 26th of October.
The market’s cautious optimism reflected expectations that an approval could revive institutional interest and reinforce Cardano’s credibility as a leading altcoin.
Meanwhile, growing retail participation continues to fuel price volatility, with traders positioning for a potential breakout in the coming weeks.
However, the market’s direction remains uncertain as both bulls and bears prepare for an event-driven shift in momentum.
Will ADA’s rebound fuel a stronger uptrend?
Cardano briefly broke below its ascending channel before stabilizing at the $0.75–$0.76 support range.
The rebound from this level showed renewed buying pressure, targeting short-term recovery zones at $0.92 and $1.00.
Holding above $0.90 could open the path to a retest of $1.29 resistance, aligning with bullish sentiment around the pending ETF ruling.
If sellers return, however, ADA could retest $0.75 once more before finding firmer footing.
Source: TradingView
Rising Open Interest shows speculative confidence
Open Interest surged by 8.04% to $1.72 billion at press time, signaling an influx of leveraged positions as traders anticipate increased volatility.
This sharp rise often indicates growing confidence among speculators ahead of a major event. However, it also highlights the risk of aggressive liquidations in both directions if sentiment shifts abruptly.
While the ETF ruling remains the main catalyst, this data suggested that ADA could see heightened activity across derivatives markets, especially as short-term traders attempt to capitalize on the ETF-driven volatility cycle.
Source: CoinGlass
Is tightening supply signaling the next ADA breakout?
The Stock-to-Flow Ratio for ADA spiked significantly, pointing to a tightening supply as long-term holders reduced sell pressure.
This supply contraction aligned with historical accumulation patterns that often preceded multi-week rallies.
Still, excessive optimism could cause short-lived spikes if the ETF outcome disappoints. The trend indicated a shift from speculative churn toward stronger conviction among long-term holders.
Source: Santiment
Can ADA sustain momentum into the ETF decision?
Cardano’s rebound from $0.75, coupled with rising Open Interest and a surging Stock-to-Flow ratio, confirmed strong underlying demand.
The tightening supply indicated that long-term holders were accumulating rather than distributing, reinforcing bullish conviction.
If momentum sustains, ADA could extend its rally toward $1.30 before the SEC’s decision. Unless broader market sentiment reverses, ADA’s setup supports a steady climb into late October as investor confidence strengthens.
