俄乌风险溢价重燃,BTC十万关口成多空新战线

marsbitPublished on 2025-06-02Last updated on 2025-06-03

要点:

  • 随着美国股市消化欧洲紧张局势加剧,比特币将从 2024 年底开始维持在历史高点附近。
  • BTC/USD 从最新纪录 112,000 美元下跌 8% 后,交易员们摆脱了市场紧张情绪。
  • 如果没有其他市场催化剂,6 月份市场可能持平。

随着俄罗斯和乌克兰的紧张局势再次回到市场,6 月 2 日华尔街开盘时寻求重新测试 2024 年的高点。

比特币价格BTC/USD 1 小时图。资料来源:Cointelegraph/TradingView


比特币价格震荡,多头争夺2024年峰值


Cointelegraph Markets ProTradingView的数据显示,BTC/USD 跌破 104,000 美元。

受地缘政治动荡预期影响,美国股市开盘谨慎。交易资源公司Kobeissi的信函评论道,当前局势的不确定性凸显无疑。

“这实际上是市场定价排除了特朗普总统为之努力了三个多月的俄乌和平协议”,该报在X 的持续报道中写道,指的是美国总统唐纳德·特朗普旨在停止冲突的目标。 


然而,我们尚未收到美国或特朗普总统的任何评论。显然,幕后正在发生一些事情。美国将如何回应?


比特币价格标普 500 指数 1 小时图。资料来源:Cointelegraph/TradingView


加密货币的声音也有类似的担忧,独立分析师 Filbfilb 预测风险资产将出现不良结果。

他当天对 X 的粉丝们表示: “在我看来,市场正在苦苦挣扎,黄金表现强劲,而与俄罗斯的紧张局势不断升级,让我怀疑今天以及 6 月初可能会出现抛售。”

Filbfilb预测,如果股市找到新的看涨势头,比特币“可能会表现出色”,并补充说,BTC 长期来看“仍然看涨”。

一些交易员也持有这种观点,其中包括著名交易员杰勒 (Jelle),他暗示对当前重新测试局部低点的反应过于悲观。


比特币价格


其他人则对 5 月份的月度蜡烛收盘价表示称赞,尽管没有引起太大的关注,但最终还是创下了比特币的历史最高收盘价。

“这是你能想象到的 $BTC 最漂亮的月度收盘价之一,”交易员 Moustache回应道


比特币价格BTC/USD 一周图表。资料来源:Moustache/X


预计比特币价格走势“温和”


展望未来,市场参与者尚未做出决定——他们一致认为,在经历了近期的波动之后,BTC/USD 可能需要一段横盘交易期。

交易公司 QCP Capital 在其发给 Telegram 频道订阅用户的最新公告中写道:“尽管波动性较大,但 BTC 仍徘徊在 10.2 万美元上方,这证明了潜在的支撑位。前端波动性已稳步压缩,风险逆转已开始在各个期限内正常化。”


“这表明短期内价格走势预期平缓。” 


在没有进一步波动催化剂的情况下,QCP 给出了 100,000 至 110,000 美元的价格区间。

与此同时,热门交易员 Daan Crypto Trades 从之前的每月开盘行为中寻找线索。

“我认为,第一周左右的走势很有可能在看到局部反转的初步迹象后逐渐减弱。如果是这样,我将在本月剩余时间内坚持这一趋势,” X一篇关于该主题的帖子写道。

Daan Crypto Trades 表示,6 月份整体市场“强烈倾向于任一方向”。


比特币价格

BTC/USDT 永续合约 1 日图。资料来源:Daan Crypto Trades/X

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