BTC周波动回顾（5月26日-6月2日）

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-06-03Last updated on 2025-06-03

Abstract

过去一周尽管比特币从高位回撤，币价基本是在横盘修正，并没有影响总体的上涨趋势。我们保持认为市场会在接下来几周或者几个月内再次尝试向上突破，可能会把我们推到 120-130 k美元的最终目标。

BTC周波动回顾（5月26日-6月2日）

关键指标：（5 月 26 日 下午四点 -> 6 月 2 日 下午四点 香港时间）

BTC 对 USD 下跌 4.4% （110.2 千美元->105.4 千美元）, ETH 对 USD 下跌 2.7% （2, 580 -> 2, 510 美元）

BTC周波动回顾（5月26日-6月2日）

过去一周尽管比特币从高位回撤，币价基本是在横盘修正，并没有影响总体的上涨趋势。我们保持认为市场会在接下来几周或者几个月内再次尝试向上突破，可能会把我们推到 120-130 千美元的最终目标。当然，具体的时间很难确定，而且如果 99-101 千美元的支撑位没有保持住，那这波上涨的彻底完成可能会被推迟到夏末。目前我们认为小幅跌下支撑位的地方可以战略性的增加多头头寸或者重新买入。如果币价真的跌破了 99 千美元，币价可能会下跌到 93-94 千美元的区间。在币价上方，第一个阻力位出现在 108-109 千美元，随后是在 112 千美元的新高之前。

市场主题

  • 上周中旬美国国际贸易法庭裁定特朗普政府利用《国际经济紧急权利法案》（IEEPA)实施全面关税非法，随后风险市场出现了一波短暂的上涨。然而股市没有继续跟涨，这波从四月初开始的风险反弹似乎已经触及极限。同时各资产的波动率都创下新低，进一步证实了市场已经精疲力尽以及进行了大幅的减仓。总的来说，市场正在憧憬即将到来的夏季假期，毫不担心有任何可能的意外发生，同时也对一些负面新闻充耳不闻（比如特朗普在周五发推称中国违反了贸易协议）。

  • 比特币惊人的涨幅终于在上周失去了势头，在 2 个月内第一次以下跌结束整周（按纽约周五收盘时刻计算）。五月份 IBIT ETF 的总流入超 60 亿美元。这次下调整盘主要是技术性的，期间伴随一些短期杠杆多头被清算，但总的来看实际波动性还保持在较低的水平。只要这种情况持续下去，我们应该会继续看到在小跌中被动流入的资金，尤其考虑到美国政策不确定性导致的美元相关市场疲软。

BTC ATM 隐含波动率

BTC周波动回顾（5月26日-6月2日）

  • 再前一周币价突破关键点位到达历史高点，随后特朗普关于欧盟关税言论导致迅速下跌，这两件事情导致实际波动率的短暂抬升。之后上周实际波动率持续走低。尽管上周币价活动的范围非常大，高频的实际波动率也只有 30 中旬的水平。随着币价重新回到 103-106 千美元这个曾经困住我们几周的区间，我们预期除非有意外的催化剂，币价活动会继续保持安静，同时会继续压低实际波动率，最终对隐含波动率施压并出现双卖币价活动区间外的行权价，导致市场手上的多头 Gamma 越来越多。

  • 期限结构依然陡峭，市场还在努力用短期的空头支持手上的六月到九月多头。同时因为拉斯维加斯的会议未能产生任何意外惊喜，实际波动率也非常安静，短期到期日再次重重下跌。这为继续卖前端支持远期变得更加困难，并进一步对六月/七月的波动率施压。

BTC 偏度/峰度

BTC周波动回顾（5月26日-6月2日）

  • 偏度本周更加偏向下方，与短期市场动量转向相符合。市场即使在到达历史高点时都对买上涨期权兴致缺缺，同时持续在币价小幅上涨时卖出以减少敞口，两者叠加导致市场不愿意再溢价买入看涨期权。与此同时，市场意识到了币价下方的危险，如果币价跌破 99-101 千美元的支撑位或者风险资产风向转变，币价走势可能会非常跳跃。

  • 峰度过去一周基本横盘，稍稍下跌。因为持续有人卖出翼侧的行权价，同时市场在努力支撑不论是中间行权价还是币价两侧的多头头寸，因此愿意稍稍偏低卖两侧以减轻 Theta 损失。考虑到目前相当克制的币价走势以及突破区间后实际波动率（以及隐含波动率，偏度）会急速上涨，我们认为目前非常值得持有多头翼侧头寸。

祝大家本周好运！

BTC周波动回顾（5月26日-6月2日）

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