比特币回调在即?10万美元可能是下一站的支撑

ambcryptoPublished on 2025-05-26Last updated on 2025-05-26

Abstract

衍生品市场引领的反弹可能面临波动加剧和回调幅度加大的风险——比特币会很快经历这种情况吗?

  • 比特币在衍生品市场的交易量很高,但在现货市场的交易量并不高。
  • 清算水平达到 10 万美元或更低可能会拉低价格。
  • 5月22日(周四),比特币[BTC]在币安平台上创下111,980美元的历史新高。据报道,未平仓合约(OI)达到了创纪录的740亿美元。最近几天,大量资金涌入衍生品市场,表明市场对比特币的信心增强。

与此同时,在10万美元的价位下方,已经出现了大量的清算。这可能会推高价格,因为价格容易被流动性所吸引。交易员是否应该预期短期内会出现回调?

Coinalyze的数据显示,在 BTC 创下历史新高后,持仓量 (OI) 趋势趋于平缓。资金费率此前一直强劲上涨,但在过去 24 小时内已降至中性水平。

交易员需要为短期回调做好准备

用户Darkfost在 CryptoQuant Insights 的一篇文章中指出,现货需求正在下降。期货交易量强劲,凸显了较高的投机兴趣。然而,随着比特币进入价格发现阶段,现货交易量的下降令人失望。

现货需求不足表明,投资者对在 9.4 万至 9.6 万美元上方买入 BTC 持谨慎态度。5 月初,该区域曾是阻力位,之后价格突破并逼近 11.2 万美元关口。

由衍生品市场引领的上涨可能面临波动性加剧和回调幅度加大的风险。

缩小图表以涵盖过去六个月的价格走势,比特币的1日图突出显示了可能的区间形态(白色)。未来几周可能出现两种走势——持续上涨,或跌至10万美元甚至9.3万美元。

当区间形成时,区间内的价格走势会促使清算水平在区间两端附近建立。3 月份回调至 7.75 万美元,随后的反弹导致空头清算水平分别在 9.96 万美元、10.8 万美元和 11.3 万美元附近建立。

前两个水平已被扫荡。现货需求的萎缩表明市场可能出现重置,目前11.3万美元可能遥不可及。

3 个月的图表强调了清算水平的积累,即 10 万美元和 9.2 万美元,作为下一个潜在目标。

根据获利了结活动以及多头是否能够再次站稳脚跟,比特币可能会再次向空头损失 10.6 万美元。

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