Сможет ли Ethereum преодолеть рост предложения и ослабление спроса? Роль обновления Pectra

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-04-08Last updated on 2025-05-08

  • Предложение Ethereum достигло нового максимума, что усилило давление со стороны продавцов и сдержало рост цен.
  • Обновление Dencun снизило комиссии, ослабив дефляционный механизм Ethereum.
  • Обновление Ethereum Pectra приносит важные улучшения, вселяя надежду на будущую масштабируемость.

Ethereum может быть готов к возвращению, поскольку последние данные по цепочке от CryptoQuant сигнализируют о редкой недооценке относительно Bitcoin, намекая на возможную фазу накопления. Данные аналитической платформы указывают на то, что MVRV ETH/BTC низок, что сигнализирует о возможной точке входа для покупки. Исторически опережающим показателям ETH предшествовали такие низкие уровни. Однако существующие фундаментальные факторы указывают на несколько препятствий, которые могут ограничить энергичное возвращение цены Ethereum.

ETH is now extremely undervalued compared to BTC, the first time since 2019.

Historically, this led to Ethereum outperforming.

However, supply pressure, weak demand, and flat activity could stall a rebound. pic.twitter.com/QqU2Xh3vo9

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) May 8, 2025

Предложение ETH теперь превышает 120,7 млн ​​ETH, что является историческим максимумом. Это показывает изменение с точки зрения дефляции после слияния. Рост предложения оказывает давление на продажи, что может негативно повлиять на цену ETH. Без мощных драйверов спроса это растущее предложение может усугубить проблемы с ценами.

Влияние модернизации Денкуна

Обновление Dencun эффективно снизило транзакционные сборы, но оно уже способствовало проблеме с поставками. Из-за сниженных сборов скорость сжигания ETH была очень близка к нулю. Учитывая, что дефляционный механизм EIP-1559 основан на газовых сборах, сниженные цены подорвали дефляционные характеристики Ethereum. Такие структурные изменения предполагают низкую вероятность скорого возвращения дефляционных эффектов.

Активность в сети Ethereum не менялась с 2021 года. Количество транзакций и активных адресов увеличилось минимально. По мере роста сетей уровня 2 большая часть этого развития происходила за счет активности основной сети, что снижало спрос на пространство блоков Ethereum, сокращало производство комиссий и обесценивало ценностное предложение.

По теме: Прогноз цены Ethereum (ETH) на 9 мая: смогут ли быки удержать прорыв?

Между тем, интерес инвесторов к ETH также снизился. Согласно данным, произошло сокращение стейкинга ETH и уменьшение холдингов институциональных инвесторов. Ставки снизились с пика, однако холдинги фондов продолжают снижаться. Такие показатели демонстрируют отсутствие доверия к крипто-аборигенам и традиционным инвесторам.

Улучшения обновления Pectra

Несмотря на эти опасения, недавно реализованное обновление Ethereum Pectra дает проблеск надежды. Обновление обеспечивает 11 ключевых улучшений сети, таких как поддержка смарт-контрактных кошельков и более интеллектуальных операций валидатора. Pectra также повышает лимит ставок и позволяет снимать средства через смарт-контракты. Эти обновления направлены на то, чтобы сделать Ethereum более масштабируемым и доступным, укрепляя его долгосрочные основы.

Хотя Ethereum сталкивается с серьезными препятствиями, обновление Pectra может создать основу для будущего. Такие достижения могут технически укрепить основы сети и потенциально повысить интерес к ETH.

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