比特币灯塔MicroStrategy面对哪些压力,是否能顺利度过熊市?

吴说区块链Published on 2022-06-15Last updated on 2022-06-15

Abstract

按MicroStrategy CEO的说法,如果要触发清算条件,BTC的价格需跌破3,562美元。

目前,MicroStrategy 背负的债务有以下几项:

1. 2025 年 12 月 15 日到期价值 6.5 亿美元的可转换优先票据,包含 5.5 亿美元可转债和 1 亿美元期权 。其中,可转债票面利率为 0.750%,每半年付息,转换价格为每股 397.99 美元。

2. 2027 年 12 月 15 日到期价值 10.5 亿美元的可转换优先票据,包含 9 亿美元可转债和 1.5 亿美元期权 。其中,可转债不计息,转换价格为每股 1432.46 美元。

3. 2028 年到期价值 5 亿美元的垃圾债(高级担保票据),票面利率为 6.125%,每半年付息,因此每年 6 月 15 日与 12 月 15 日须支付利息 1,531.25 万美元。

4. 2025 年 3 月到期价值 2.05 亿美元的抵押贷款,抵押品为 BTC,维持保证金率为 200%(即价值 4.1 亿美元的 BTC)。

除此以外,MicroStrategy 大部分购买 BTC 的现金是通过股权融资的方式获得的,这部分融资不存在债务关系,因此不存在违约的情况。而可能造成 MicroStrategy 债务违约进而导致破产清算的只有三种情况:无法支付贷款/票据利息,无法偿还贷款/票据本金以及保证金率低于 200%。

通过上述四笔债务可以估算,MicroStrategy 从 2022 年起每年须支付利息至少 3475 万(412.5+3062.5)美元。过去两年,MicroStrategy 每季度的 EBIT 基本维持在 1,000 万(剔除比特币减值损失)美元左右,即每年 4,000 万美元。

由此可见,MicroStrategy 的经营性利润基本可以覆盖债务利息。今年一季度财报显示,剔除比特币减值损失后的 EBIT 仅 4 万美元,原因在于营业收入下降,同比下降了 3%,这值得警惕。不过截止一季度公司还有约 9268 万美元的现金,至少可以支付今年的利息。

至于偿还贷款/票据本金,最早的也要到 2025 年 3 月。我们无法预测三年以后的市场情况,但至少可以肯定当下不会受到影响。

最后就是保证金率的问题。根据 CEO Michael Saylor 的发言,MicroStrategy 目前有 115,109 比特币可以用作抵押,以当前价格计算,保证金率超过 1300%。如果要触发清算条件,BTC 的价格需跌破 3,562 美元。

综上所述,MicroStrategy 只需保证每年利润能够支付利息,就不会发生因债务危机而被迫出售比特币的情况。

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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