比特币抄底机会来了?从流动性到大户动作,这些信号值得关注!

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-12-30Last updated on 2024-12-31

Abstract

预计流动性会在 1 月 4 号左右恢复。

原文作者:HighFreedom(X:@highFree 2028 


从近期开始到明年 1 月 5 号附近这个时间窗口可能逐步进入了比较好的大饼买入时间:


1. 宏观美元流动性上:受到年底常规的短期流动性下降(liquidity squeeze)而导致 SOFR 的短期激增,挤压风险资产。


预计流动性会在 1 月 4 号左右恢复(到时候 SOFR 会重新低于 EFFR, 2023 年年底也是这个走法,在 2024 年 1 月 4 号 SOFR 恢复正常)。


具体来说逻辑链是:金融机构为了应付年底时点的监管合规开始降低杠杆并增加现金 or 现金等价物-> 市场流动性被短期抽离 -> 钱少了导致超短期融资利率激增 -> 美股里对短期利率极其敏感的策略受到挤压被迫平仓 -> 美股被挤压 -> 大饼跟着被挤压。

多角度解读市场趋势:比特币买入良机将至?


2. 大户情况:


BTC 链上:长期持币者 LTH 出货已经从大选后主升浪开启后的大批量出货(总计出货 100 万个 BTC)到现在几乎停止,大户抛售趋势停止


Bitfinex 大户:开始持续以 0.2% 左右正溢价买入 BTC 现货 


Bitfinex 杠杆做多 BTC 仓位:从 28 号晚上开始加仓

多角度解读市场趋势:比特币买入良机将至?


多角度解读市场趋势:比特币买入良机将至?


3. 老美开始上班:


近期 USDT 几乎没有 10 亿美金级别增发,几乎确认 MSTR 没有买币,预计老美在 1 月 1 号之后开始回来继续上班买币(MSTR 有点例外,乐观情况是两周 blackout period 从 1 月 14 号到 2 月 5 号 earning call 不能融资买币;悲观情况是四周 blackout period 从 1 月 1 号开始到 2 月 5 号 earning call 不能融资买币)


4. 回调幅度已经见底:


多次在 92-93 附近磨底,已经从高点 10 万 8 到 9 万 2 有 20% 左右的回调。本轮牛市除了 8/5 黑天鹅之外回调幅度有 30% 之外,基本回调幅度都在最大在 20% 左右


5. 泡沫挤压比较干净:


即使上周五美股主要因为短期 liquidity squeeze 导致下跌,盘中纳指最多跌 2% ,我观察大饼当时也就在 93 附近跟跌 2% 多一点点,有种明显的泡沫挤压比较干净的感觉 


6. 盘口上:最近一两天开始在币安现货里开始有点比较密集且大额的挂单


7. 山寨:有点点跌不动的味道了


风险


1. BOJ 在 1 月 23 号是否加息 25 bps 是悬在头上的一把利刃,日本金融厅的官员整体还是倾向于不加息 skip,但表态比较暧昧,只能持续观察,现在市场定价加息概率大概 40% ;另外,日元汇率 JPY/USD 又一次在逼近 160 附近(当前写文章时是 157.88 ,逼近 158),如果达到 160 可能会再次挑战 BOJ 某种程度的底线,可能会加大加息概率 


疑问: 请教一下大家,近期 Coinbase 的 BTC 负溢价非常高,这是好的信号还是坏的信号呢

多角度解读市场趋势:比特币买入良机将至?


相关阅读:

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712 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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