Blockworks 联创 2025 年的 27 个预测：美国成为加密中心，Base 会是 Solana 主要竞争对手

链捕手Published on 2024-12-23Last updated on 2024-12-23

Abstract

超过 10 个 DeFi 协议将正式启动费用开关 (fee switches)，其中包括 Uniswap

作者：Mippo，Blockworks 联合创始人
编译：深潮 TechFlow

  1. 美国将重新崛起为全球加密货币的核心中心。
    越来越多的创业者将回归美国，并在纽约设立办公室。
    美国的加密货币会议规模也将超过亚洲地区的类似活动。
  2. 超过 10 个 DeFi 协议将正式启动费用开关 (fee switches)，其中包括 Uniswap。
  3. DeFi 协议将逐渐采用客户资产再抵押 (rehypothecation) 作为新的商业模式。
    这一趋势将涉及跨链桥 (bridges)、流动性质押代币 (LSTs) 等领域。
  4. 以太坊社区关于“北极星”路线的争论将迎来结论：
    对 L1 主网的扩容尝试将保持在较低水平（例如将 Gas 目标提高到 50M gwei，同时关于缩短区块时间的讨论将升温）。
    最终，以 Rollup 为核心的路线图将得到再次确认。
  5. Max 的扩容提议将无法获得足够支持，最终失败。
  6. 这一结果将为以太坊社区带来急需的凝聚力，并改善整体市场情绪。
    尽管如此，部分持不同意见的开发者和用户可能会因此退出生态系统。
    ETH 代币价格预计将表现强劲。
  7. 基于 Rollup 的解决方案在 2025 年仍难以实现重大突破。
    不过，通过像 Across 这样的协议，可以实现足够好的互操作性。
    对于实现通用的同步可组合性 (universal synchronous composability)，目前仍看不到明确的方向。
  8. 可信执行环境 (TEEs) 将逐渐成为 L2 基础设施的重要组成部分，并最终成为其永久特性。
  9. Solana 的发展势头将在本周期持续，但到 2025 年问题将逐步显现：
    由于 memecoins) 的分散化以及 MEV (最大可提取价值) 带来的挑战，Solana 的 REV 将难以再创新高。为应对这些问题，Solana 社区的极端主义 (Maximalism) 将有所抬头。
  10. Firedancer 客户端将在第四季度正式上线，届时 Solana 的网络将实现 10 万 TPS 的处理能力。
  11. Solana 可能调整其代币发行政策以降低通胀，而以太坊则不会做出类似改变。
  12. Base 将成为 Rollup 生态系统中的一匹黑马，并成为 Solana 的主要竞争对手。

     Base 上的总资产预计将超过 400 亿美元。

  1. Base 还将成为 AI 智能体 (AI agents) 以及其他 AI 应用的首选链。
  2. 稳定币将在 L2 网络上逐渐成为主导资产，其数量预计将达到 ETH 的两倍以上。
  3. 稳定币市场将在未来一年迎来突破性增长：
    市值预计将超过 4500 亿美元。稳定币将成为风险投资 (VCs) 重点关注的前三大投资领域之一。
  4. 超过 5 家大型金融科技公司或传统金融机构将在 2025 年推出自己的稳定币。
    这将给现有稳定币带来竞争压力，导致它们的增长速度放缓。
  5. 超过 10 家企业（包括银行和 Web2 巨头）将在 2025 年推出自己的 L2 网络。
    但这些网络大多数将难以获得市场认可，无法取得实际成果。
    唯一可能的例外是金融科技公司，例如 Robinhood。
  6. 凭借庞大的用户基础和强大的品牌影响力，Robinhood 将在 2025 年成为行业的主导力量之一。
    到年底，Robinhood 将与 Coinbase 一起被视为美国领先的两大加密交易所。
  7. L1 区块链的投资机会仍然存在，并且短时间内不会消失。
    表现最亮眼的项目将是 Sui 和 HyperLiquid。
  8. ICO 模式将重新回归，但不会像 2017 年那样占据主导地位。
    投资者保护措施将更加完善，ICO 将更像是众筹活动。
    预计会有 5 个蓝筹协议通过 ICO 进行融资。
  9. 风险投资将回流加密行业，但融资规模不会达到 2021 年的水平。
    2021 年加密领域的风险投资总额为 300 亿美元。2025 年预计在 200 亿至 250 亿美元之间。 市场将迎来更多 5000 万至 1 亿美元的融资轮次。
  10. 加密公司将迎来 IPO 的窗口期，但不会出现大规模上市潮。
    超过 4 家公司预计会进行 IPO，但由于 2021 年的估值泡沫仍未完全消化，更多公司可能会推迟上市计划。
    成长型股权投资仍然不会进入加密领域。
  11. 2025 年的主流趋势将是 AI 与加密的结合。
    基础模型的持续进步将引发更多关注，并推动 AI 相关代币的热潮。
  12. AI 的应用场景将更加多样化，而不仅限于智能体 (agents)。
    不同类型的智能体将被尝试，例如内容创作者、对冲基金交易员、艺术家等。
    但绝大多数尝试都将处于初期阶段，并可能不成功。
  13. TikTok 在加密领域的影响力将达到前所未有的高度。
    Crypto Twitter (CT) 可能会成为某些 TikTok 代币的主要退出渠道。
  14. 美国将在 2025 年通过重要的加密立法。
    一项更新版的市场结构法案或稳定币法案可能会被签署成为法律。
  15. 比特币的 L2 解决方案在 2025 年依然难以取得突破。
    真正基于零知识证明 (ZK) 的比特币 L2 仍需要更长时间才能实现。
  16. 加密货币将被广泛视为美国政治中的一种长期力量。
    主流媒体 (MSM) 的态度将逐渐转变，开始承认加密货币不会轻易退出历史舞台。

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