Matrixport 投研:BTC有望在2025年达到16万美元

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-12-13Last updated on 2024-12-13

Abstract

随着机构采用增加、监管清晰度提高、投机行为增多和用例不断扩展,加密货币市场在 BTC 的带领下日趋成熟。

2024 年,BTC 始终符合并超过关键价格预测。积极拥抱 BTC ETF 的机构投资者已经实现了可观的收益,或激励他们在 2025 年进一步加大配置 BTC 的力度。

BTC 在 2025 年有望超过 8% 的采用门槛

BTC 和更广泛的加密货币市场即将迎来一个关键的采用里程碑,预计到 2025 年有望超过 8% 的采用门槛。根据过往经验,但凡突破 8% 采用门槛的技术(如智能手机和社交媒体)通常都会由于网络效应和更广泛的可用性而经历指数级增长。随着 BTC 逐渐获得主流接受,它有望从小众资产转变为全球金融市场的核心组成部分。

BTC 价格发生大幅修正的可能性降低

市场动态正在发生变化。与过往周期中动辄 -80% 的大幅回调为特征的情况不同,BTC 不断扩大的逢低买入者基础和机构支持降低了发生大幅修正的可能性。虽然定期盘整屡见不鲜,但预计这些盘整将不再显著,突显 BTC 作为资产类别的成熟。

BTC 有望在 2025 年达到 16 万美元

BTC 有望在 2025 年达到 16 万美元,代表着 + 60% 的上行空间。这个目标与市场对 BTC ETF 的持续需求、宏观经济环境的演变和全球流动性池的扩大相一致。贪婪与恐惧指数表明,当前的盘整阶段可能比以往更短。随着资金费率正常化和市场企稳,BTC 已经准备好迎接新的上涨势头。而市场最近从过热状态迅速恢复,则突显了其韧性及对下一个增长阶段准备就绪。

BTC 价格所表现出的韧性,加上 BTC 作为对抗通胀的对冲工具的作用,再考虑到 BTC 被纳入机构投资组合的事实,无不表明 2025 年将是变革的一年。随着采用速度加快和市场迈向成熟,BTC 有望创下新的历史高点,进一步巩固其作为全球金融市场基石的角色。

上述部分观点来自 Matrix on Target, 与我们联系获取 Matrix on Target 完整报告。

免责声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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706 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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