Metrics Ventures市场观察:熟悉的混沌市场,不同的等待与期待

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-10-15Last updated on 2024-10-15

Abstract

加密向上趋势仍然持续,避免无序震荡末端迷惑性的多空博弈带来净值磨损,持筹等待是为上策。

加密市场二级基金 Metrics Ventures 10 月市场观察导读

1/ 场内延续了持续 6 个月的无序盘整,成交量偶有放大但仍整体低迷,少量山寨币尝试走出了独立行情,但受制于流动性的明显缺失,大部分尝试都以失败告终。

2/ 尽管行业混沌状态堪比 2023 年中,但悄然发生的是场内资金流动路径和参与玩家心态的根本性改变,月内的链上赚钱效应已然不错。在我们看来,自 2024 年初以来的板块走势割裂已经经过了超 6 个月的反复确认,行业的转向或已不可避免。

3/ 站在当前时点上,我们认为中美资本市场走向、大选及即将来临的 FOMC 都不是数字货币市场值得博弈的事件。回归资金和筹码面本质,除非新增的黑天鹅事件扰动,加密向上趋势仍然持续,避免无序震荡末端迷惑性的多空博弈带来净值磨损,持筹等待是为上策。

市场总体行情与市场走势的盘点和点评

9 月至今的市场实质上给出了较多在我们看来重要的信号:

①在经历了自 2024 年 3 月以来的若干次资金面(即币价行情)、基本面(项目更新与创新)信息面(即线下大会)确认,更多加密货币市场资金终于选择了纯粹的筹码博弈这一复古形式,回归初心,这也是在所谓价值币的棺材上再次钉下的又一根钢钉。目前行业仅存的长期主线仍然只有 BTC,赌场和支付(叠码)。

②以太坊最底层的筹码在上升趋势破位数周后开始了致命的松动,考虑到近期以太坊 ETF 的规模和未来的合理预期,以太坊的真正大考已然来临,从业内角度看,有且只有过量流动性注入和远超上一轮 Defi 的玩法更新排他性发生在以太坊才能挽救这一颓势,留给以太坊的时间在悄然倒数。

③山寨币的纯筹码反弹并不顺利,整体成功率和吸引的成交量过于萎缩,以至于场内出现了又一次的 VC/ANTI-VC 板块冰火两重天的窘境,实际上,数字货币行业的资金流入/流出路径已经在 2024 年发生了可能是决定性的变化,进一步遏制了 VC 们的后期退出空间,情况可能会恶化的比想象中更快更深。

④大盘方面,波动愈加无序,事实上涨跌都没有强劲的外部因素可以预期,而场内的羸弱也从成交量上显露无疑,无序波动阶段,多空皆无值博率,我们重点关注支撑位和压力位附近的价格行为,避免无谓磨损。

潮流浩浩汤汤,顺势者昌,整体来看,如以赌场为本质的全球蓄水池共识是大势所趋,Liquid Ventures 必须顺势而为,我们已然建立了第一步的前哨站,未来或将进一步在其中感知行业未来的空间。

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