牛市回来了吗?

币界网Published on 2024-08-22Last updated on 2024-08-22

币界网报道:

晚间凌晨BTC有拉升动作,比特币又再次回到61000美元这个关键水平。

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关于昨晚的宏观层面数据主要有两个:

第一,美国公布自3月份过去一年就业人口的修正数据,下修81.8万人,表明美国就业数据在过去一年实际表现更差,显然这对美国经济是一个负面影响。

第二,紧随其后的就是凌晨美联储发布会议纪要,大多与会者都认为9月份降息是比较合适的,这在一方面又提振了一下市场信心。二者相互抵消,无事发生,又或者市场已经对这些消息麻木了。

总而言之,BTC继续在56000-62000美元区间维持震荡,只有脱离这个区间才能打开新的趋势,而我目前仍然偏向认为市场会多次测试62000美元这个位置,这周大概率不会走出方向,只有看下周的表现了。

第四季度我们能否力挽狂澜

与之前的周期不同,比特币价格在减半事件之前达到了历史新高,距离比特币减半事件已经过去了超过123天,比特币价格尚未突破减半事件前的历史新高。

Coinglass的数据显示,比特币在减半年的第四季度始终提供正回报,2016年和2020年的涨幅分别为58%和168%。此外,2013年至2023年的11年中,比特币价格有8年实现正回报,平均涨幅为88%。

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如果历史重演,比特币在 2024 年第四季度复苏的概率为 73%,2020 年减半事件期间比特币的价格走势,牛市复苏始于第四季度。比特币价格正处于积累阶段,这表明进入2024年最后一个季度,比特币可能会开始抛物线上涨趋势。

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牛市即将到来,想发财坚守这些准则!

大家都说这波牛市和上波牛市一点都不一样,感觉自己还没赚钱好像已经过一半了,但我总是给你们心理按摩,告诉你们还没真正的开始。

其实啊你感觉赚钱难是因为这波牛市板块很多,这就造成了资金的严重分裂。各个板块都有人看好,模式发展各异,资金分裂严重、也就造成了当下还没出现一个板块集体不断接力冲高的那种盛大场景,基本上就是各领风骚两三周然后偃旗整理蓄势。

所以你如果反应不够灵敏的话,确实很难体会到持续赚钱的快乐。我们要做到的就是不要被情绪所影响,不要跟个无头苍蝇一样听见别人fomo就立马去追涨杀跌,要坚守自己的交易准则,不做无意义频繁的仓位操作!

从历史周期的规律来看,美联储从2022年开始加息,高利率维持了一年多的时间,而这个时间也是完全符合降息的标准,目前市场上还是有很多人不信美联储今年会降息,但我个人认为九月十月降息其实已经算是板上钉钉的事情,拭目以待吧迎来真正牛市的到来!

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521 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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