浅谈BTC生态未来发展：如何寻找好的BTC生态标的？

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-09Last updated on 2024-07-09

Abstract

整个BTC生态市场中真正提供流动性的BTC仅占当前代币总量的35%左右。

原文作者：Howe（X：@weihaoming）

本文主要讲述我个人对于 BTC 生态的一些思考和对生态未来发展的判断，通俗来说就是我看好 BTC 生态的理由以及什么样的项目是我眼中的优质项目

之前我讲述了什么是「正确的非共识」，本文也可以算是我个人认为的非共识。但需要注意的是，正确的非共识是不依据当前市场情况和发展对未来作出的判断，而本文更多是基于已有的情况和数据来推断，所以读者需要提前意识到这一差别

声明：本文带有强烈的个人主观意识，不存在任何投资建议，仅做交流与分享。同时本文是基于个人已有认知和现有数据来做推断，未来随时都会更新

我对 BTC 生态的三点看法

BTC 生态独具一格

BTC 作为 Crypto 世界的先驱，其技术特点与生态构成是独具一格的。从技术上看，BTC 使用的是非图灵完备的脚本语言，因此无法支持很多复杂计算，从而导致生态中的项目稀少且进展缓慢。同时 BTC 的共识是极具 Maxi 风格的，下图是 BTC 持有者的持有时间占比图，其中我们可以将其分成以下四部分：

  • 持有 10 year 以上 ( 16.6% )：很大部分是永久丢失的 BTC

  • 持有 3 year - 10 year ( 30.4% )：少部分是永久丢失的 BTC，剩下一部分是中长线交易者，一部分是坚定持有不买卖的 Bitcoin Maxi

  • 持有 1 year - 3 year ( 19.3% )：中线交易者

  • 持有 1 year 以下 ( 34.6% )：短线交易者

浅谈BTC生态未来发展：如何寻找好的BTC生态标的？

数据来源：https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=supply.HodlWaves

由此可见，整个 BTC 生态市场中真正提供流动性的 BTC 仅占当前代币总量的 35% 左右，这是与其它生态最大不同的一点。且由于存在 Bitcoin Maxi 这一重要因素，大家都将 BTC 视作“数字黄金”长期持有作为避险资产，故而对于他们来说，唯有 BTC 才是他们的信仰。

BTC 有些时候往往就是因为难用，因为贵，它才价值高

BTC 如今能有这么高的价值很大程度是来源于其共识价值，对于 Bitcoin Maxi 来说更是如此，至少我们很少听到过 Ethereum Maxi 或 Solana Maxi 等。而回顾 Bitcoin 的整个发展史，我们可以发现其在最初的几年并没有受到太多的关注，价格也一直极其平缓，直到 2013 年迎来一波大上涨，才逐渐吸引了越来越多的用户进入，而在此之前的 5 年间那些一直坚持布道的 OG 们也越来越坚定，成为了现在大家口中的 Bitcoin Maxi。

浅谈BTC生态未来发展：如何寻找好的BTC生态标的？

数据来源：https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/bitcoin-price-live/

随着 2015 年 Ethereum 的诞生带来了智能合约这一引爆市场的特性之后，大家逐渐发觉 Bitcoin 的局限性，BTC 也逐渐变成了大家的避险资产，正如上文所述，有近 65% 的 BTC 一直持有未动。

但我个人认为，BTC 之所以能保持目前的高价值，除去其是第一个出现的 Crypto 资产以外，还离不开整个 Bitcoin 主网“又贵又难用”，这里指的是 Bitcoin 上的交易 Gas 费用相比其它网络会更高，交易吞吐量更低，且生态设施的开发建设受制于其非图灵完备的特性而极为缓慢。但有时候就是因为这些“问题”，才会让用户将其视为珍宝，不轻易操作，这就好比同样是去买东西，一种方式是用简单便携的纸币支付，一种方式是从一块完整的黄金上切割出一小块来支付，其便携程度和价格就如同当前 BTC 与其它网络的关系。

BTC 生态应该先解决什么问题

现在的 BTC 生态可大致分为两派：原生技术派和用户导向派，原生技术派主要指的是在 Bitcoin 独有的 UTXO 和脚本语言基础上挖掘其潜力，尝试进行项目开发；用户导向主要派指的是项目方在看到市场用户现有的一些需求时，利用当前已有的成熟条件去快速开发打造一个新产品去服务市场用户。

而我个人认为，BTC 生态应该先通过对原生技术的改进和扩展，创造新兴协议/项目以盘活 BTC 的资金利用率。对于每一轮周期来说，技术创新势必为不可或缺的一环，而对于 BTC 生态来说，技术创新应该更多地体现在不断突破其原有的种种局限。因此，个人对于将以太坊的那套玩法搬到 BTC 生态中，一直认为是偷懒的行为，天花板较低。本质上这种做法是通过利用以太坊上成熟的技术社区、丰富的开发者团队以及多年的生态经验等，来快速打造项目并上线，但是在上线之后，其技术创新能力会变得相当局限，且无法吸引到上述所说的 Bitcoin Maxi 那帮人以及其它新入场的只相信 BTC 的市场用户。

讲完技术创新，那便来讲讲另外一个核心因素——流动性。流动性的富足与匮乏决定了牛市与熊市，因此如何提高流动性是 BTC 生态中的一个重要方向。那么流动性的提高可以有两种方式：盘活场内资金流通与吸引新的场外资金进场，场内资金的话很好理解，就是如何提高大家的资产交易意愿，尤其在 BTC 生态中，至今仍有约 65% 的 BTC 长期持有不交易，那么如何通过一些方式/手段来吸引他们去参与，是我们需要去思考的问题；而场外资金指的是新资金进入到生态中，典型的案例就是今年上半年通过的 BTC ETF，其带动了海量的传统用户进入市场，为 BTC 生态带来了数目可观的流动性。但这些流动性也存在着一些问题，即资金利用率不高，主要原因是很多传统用户对于加密世界的了解只停留在 BTC 上，像钱包、公链等基础设施知之甚少，故他们的策略很多时候就跟 Bitcoin Maxi 类似，买入 BTC 长期持有，不高频交易。

所以如何吸引新资金进入，并盘活新老资金的资金利用率，将是 BTC 生态需要先去解决的事情。

如何寻找好的 BTC 生态标的

结合前面讲述的三点看法，个人认为 BTC 生态的标的筛选原则主要为以下四点，这四点之间并不相互独立，若能相互结合是再好不过：

  • 原生的技术创新

  • 继承 Bitcoin 主网安全性

  • 能够为 BTC 自身赋能

  • 降低用户的使用门槛

原生的技术创新前文已有讲述，这里不再过多赘述。继承 Bitcoin 主网安全性以及能够为 BTC 自身赋能主要是因为当前整个生态中，大家相信的是 BTC，共识的是 BTC，而不是 BTC 以外的衍生物，那么唯有直接为 BTC 去做赋能，让大家的共识更强，这才是目前需要做的事情。且这种做法也符合 Bitcoin Maxi 的理念，不仅能够更好地吸引他们参与到市场中，也能够让新入场的市场用户有更多的参与意愿。降低用户的使用门槛本质也是为了能够提高生态的流动性。

就如 Babylon 的做法，其通过原生的技术创新如比特币时间戳等，让用户可以在 BTC 仍保留在自己手上的情况下，还可以获得额外的收益，这种 BTC 生息方式既没有增加太多额外的资产安全风险，又可以获得额外的收益。故对于市场用户来说，将会是一个非常有吸引力的项目。

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